Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17448
 
In WA-09, Incumbent Democrat Smith Narrowly Atop GOP Challenger, Contest May Be Closer Still Among Those Who Have Already Voted:

In Washington State's 9th Congressional District today, 10/26/10, Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith remains narrowly atop Republican challenger Dick Muri, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. A week after voting began and a week before ballots must be returned, it's Smith 49%, Muri 46%. The result is identical to that in a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago. Among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, it's Smith 49%, Muri 47%.

As it has in other geographies, SurveyUSA probes here to see if those who rarely vote in congressional elections, but who say they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, are voting Republican. One theory underlying much of the 2010 campaign narrative is that Republicans are uniquely motivated, Democrats uniquely dispirited. In WA-09, SurveyUSA finds those who almost never vote break Republican, and those who always vote break Democratic. Voters in WA-09 who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in past elections vote 3:2 Republican. Voters who are less enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in past elections, vote Democrat 5:4. Any outcome is possible in a congressional-level contest separated by so few points.

 
Filtering: 700 registered voters from Washington's 9th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/22/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 590 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Smith, first elected to the House of Representatives in 1996, is seeking his 7th term. Muri is a Pierce County Councilman.
 
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Dick Muri? Or Democrat Adam Smith?
590 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Dick Muri (R)46%54%39%54%53%43%37%54%40%46%43%**51%47%46%85%11%52%82%35%11%89%7%54%24%56%46%44%57%42%31%44%48%60%44%36%76%27%56%36%39%49%
Adam Smith (D)49%43%55%39%42%54%58%41%55%50%53%**42%49%49%12%86%41%14%60%87%9%91%40%58%38%49%53%40%51%63%53%46%36%52%60%20%69%41%59%55%48%
Undecided5%4%6%7%5%3%6%6%4%4%4%**7%4%5%3%3%7%4%5%2%2%2%6%18%7%5%3%3%6%5%3%6%4%4%4%4%4%3%5%6%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%15%28%34%22%44%56%83%6%4%7%46%54%30%37%32%34%41%20%33%35%22%10%13%44%41%53%9%37%49%51%36%25%39%38%59%46%50%32%68%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.