Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14439
No State More Important To Both Camps Than PA ... Where The Other Guy's Grass Looks Oddly Greener: In an election for President of the United States today in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain 50% to 44%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. 19% of Democrats are voting Republican. 17% of Republicans are voting Democrat. This is a level of party defection not seen in other states, and may be a window into just how unhappy some Keystone voters are with news events in general, as much as they might be unhappy with their party's candidate in particular. McCain holds 81% of Conservatives, Obama holds 86% of Liberals, but Obama is positioned to capture PA's 21 vital Electoral Votes on the backs of Moderates, among whom he leads by 22 points today.

There is much meat on the bone: McCain leads in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, and in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg. Obama leads in Southeastern PA, which includes Philadelphia, and Southwestern PA, which includes Pittsburgh. The candidates are effectively tied in Northeastern PA, which includes Scranton, birthplace of Joe Biden, and as much as any town in America, is the epicenter of the entire national campaign.

McCain leads among whites, among gun owners, among those who attend religious services regularly, among those who do consider the United States to be a Super Power but who do not consider themselves to be an intellectual, and among voters older than McCain. Obama leads among lower income voters, among African Americans and among voters younger than McCain.

Context / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,500 Pennsylvania adults 09/23/08 and 09/24/08. The research was conducted at a time of unprecedented economic and political turbulence. Approximately half of the voters were interviewed after McCain announced that he was temporarily suspending his campaign. Of the 1,500 PA adults, 1,329 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,094 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. Pennsylvania has 21 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried the state by 2½ points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 4 points in 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
1094 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionIntellectual?Traveled AbroadSpeak Another LaUSA Super PowerOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo< $50K> $50KNorthwesSouthwesWest CenSouth CeNortheasSoutheas
McCain (R)44%44%44%41%45%42%48%43%45%43%52%43%48%15%****78%19%39%81%36%11%44%44%55%36%30%66%28%43%49%44%45%44%45%49%27%56%36%39%47%**44%55%59%45%36%
Obama (D)50%51%49%55%49%53%44%51%49%52%40%51%45%84%****17%76%47%15%58%86%50%50%39%59%65%28%67%51%46%51%48%50%50%46%69%37%60%52%49%**51%37%33%48%59%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%20%31%26%23%51%49%45%12%43%87%10%2%2%38%51%10%27%38%15%45%55%50%28%22%42%54%71%23%71%29%26%74%80%16%41%57%37%63%4%22%6%14%11%42%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.