Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10547
 
Democrat Challenger Webb Still Can't Catch GOP Incumbent Allen in VA Senate Race: In an election today, 10/25/06, for United States Senator from Virginia, incumbent Republican George Allen continues to cling to a narrow lead in his race against Democrat challenger Jim Webb, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 613 Likely Virginia Voters conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV in Washington DC and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke. Today, it's Allen 49%, Webb 46%, within the poll's margin of sampling error. SurveyUSA has polled the race 5 times since August. Allen has led by 3 points on 3 occasions, led by 5 points once and led by 6 points once. Today, Allen leads by 14 among males; Webb leads by 9 among females. Allen leads by 15 among white voters. Webb leads by 62 points among black voters. Blacks made up 14% of likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. If blacks vote in larger numbers, the Democrat benefits. If blacks vote in smaller numbers, the Republican benefits. 90% of Republicans vote Republican. 90% of Democrats vote Democrat. Among Independents, there is movement to Webb. In SurveyUSA's most recent poll, on 9/29, Webb trailed by 7 among Independents. Today he leads by 13, a 20-point swing. There is movement to Allen among the most educated voters. There is movement to Webb among the least educated voters. Allen's lead is the largest it has ever been in rural areas. Allen's lead is the smallest it has ever been in suburban areas. The election is in 13 days, on 11/7/06.
 
Voters Narrowly Support Marriage Amendment, But One Third Not Certain How They Will Vote In a referendum today, 10/25/06, on ballot Question 1, which would amend the Virginia constituion to define marriage, 35% of Likely Voters remain 'Not Certain' how they will vote. Of those voters who are certain, 37% are 'Certain Yes,' 28% are 'Certain No.' Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/29/06, Yes and No have moved in parallel. Then, the measure passed by 10 points, with 52% 'Not Certain.' Today, 'Certain Yes' is up 8 points. 'Certain No' is up 9 points. Democrats oppose the measure by 27 points, up from 5. Republicans support it by 46 points, up from 33. Only among Democrats is the movement in opposite directions: 'Certain No' Democrats are up 14 points, from 28% to 42%. 'Certain Yes' Democrats are down 8 points from 23% to 15%. In the DC suburbs, the measure trails by 5 points. In the Shenandoah, the measure leads by 25 points. Those supporting George Allen for Senator back the measure 6:1. Those supporting Jim Webb for Senator oppose the measure 3:1. SurveyUSA did not read the complete text of the constitutional amendment to respondents. The exact language SurveyUSA read to respondents appears in the table below. The election is in 13 days, on 11/7/06.
 
Filtering: 1,000 Virginia adults were interviewed 10/22/06 - 10/24/06. Of them, 862 were registered to vote. Of them, 613 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
 
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?
613 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationVote For VA SenaAmendment 1IncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad SchAllen (RWebb (D)'Certain'CertainNot Cert< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Allen (R)49%55%43%53%49%48%46%56%15%90%7%39%84%34%14%49%56%43%46%100%0%79%18%42%44%53%46%93%13%59%39%47%51%44%48%60%55%51%47%49%46%
Webb (D)46%41%52%43%45%49%51%41%77%8%90%52%12%63%79%43%40%50%52%0%100%19%77%51%48%43%51%5%82%38%57%48%43%51%47%38%39%44%48%48%51%
Parker (IG)2%1%2%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%5%2%1%5%5%1%2%1%0%0%1%3%2%3%1%1%1%2%2%2%3%1%3%1%1%4%1%2%1%2%
Other/Undecided3%2%3%2%5%2%1%2%7%1%2%4%2%2%2%3%2%4%2%0%0%2%1%6%4%3%2%1%3%1%2%2%5%2%4%1%2%4%4%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%24%35%25%16%76%14%42%35%21%37%41%16%11%36%27%26%49%46%37%28%35%19%36%40%43%53%26%27%19%29%21%63%16%11%26%29%18%16%
 
 
Also on the ballot is Question 1, concerning marriage. On Question 1, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not yet certain how you will vote on Question 1?
613 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationVote For VA SenaAmendment 1IncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad SchAllen (RWebb (D)'Certain'CertainNot Cert< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
'Certain' Yes37%41%34%35%37%37%39%41%24%59%15%29%62%24%12%37%44%31%34%60%15%100%0%0%41%41%32%60%19%50%28%35%35%25%39%47%34%36%36%41%39%
'Certain' No28%29%27%26%26%30%33%29%28%13%42%37%12%37%47%27%17%35%36%10%47%0%100%0%24%25%35%11%43%25%33%23%29%36%27%22%31%21%30%30%33%
Not Certain35%30%39%39%37%32%28%30%48%28%43%35%26%39%42%36%38%34%30%30%38%0%0%100%36%35%33%30%38%24%39%42%36%40%34%30%36%42%35%29%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%24%35%25%16%76%14%42%35%21%37%41%16%11%36%27%26%49%46%37%28%35%19%36%40%43%53%26%27%19%29%21%63%16%11%26%29%18%16%