Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19723
 
Well-Liked Incumbent Sherman Atop Well-Liked Incumbent Berman in Newly Drawn CA-30 Congressional District:

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 30th Congressional District today, 09/20/12, three weeks until voting begins, Democrat Brad Sherman leads fellow Democrat Howard Berman 45% to 32%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV.

Sherman leads among men and women, the young and the old, whites and non-whites, the rich and the not-so-rich. Berman makes inroads among Republicans and Protestants. Sherman leads narrowly among Jewish voters and materially among Catholics. Both candidates are Jewish. Both candidates are current members of Congress, but because of redistricting in California, the 2 incumbents must face each other in a newly drawn CA-30. Only one will survive.

Both candidates are well liked. Sherman has a Plus 33 Net Favorability, which is exceptional. 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared to just 10% who have an unfavorable opinion. Berman has a Plus 22 Net Favorability. 35% of voters see him favorably, compared to 13% who see him unfavorably.

* By 37% to 26%, voters see Sherman as a more effective legislator.
* By 42% to 24%, voters see Sherman as more focused on the needs of Valley residents.

President Barack Obama carries the heavily Democratic district 2:1, in an election today.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters 09/18/12 and 09/19/20. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 628 were likely to vote in the election for U.S. House of Representatives. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters) were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured respondent cooperation, qualified the respondent, asked the questions, logged the answers, and remained on the line until the interview was completed. Both home-phone and cell-phone sample are from Aristotle of Washington DC.

 
In the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 30th Congressional District, the only two candidates on the ballot are both Democrats. If the election were today, would you vote for ... ... (candidate names rotated) Brad Sherman? Or Howard Berman?
628 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyReligionEducationIncomePresidential Vot
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLanlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalProtestaCatholicJewishOtherDo Not PHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KMitt RomBarack O
Brad Sherman45%45%46%38%41%49%48%40%49%44%51%48%33%49%43%48%41%35%52%45%45%52%43%49%40%49%45%45%49%49%42%39%49%
Howard Berman32%33%31%24%28%32%40%27%36%34%28%29%16%37%33%35%27%36%32%34%34%30%38%29%31%23%34%33%21%34%35%37%32%
Undecided23%22%23%38%31%19%12%33%16%23%20%23%51%14%25%17%31%29%16%21%20%18%19%22%29%28%21%22%30%16%23%24%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%25%34%27%39%61%74%12%10%21%79%25%55%18%23%40%33%16%22%26%14%22%7%28%64%15%33%52%30%63%
 
 
Is your opinion of Brad Sherman ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
628 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyReligionEducationIncomePresidential Vot
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLanlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalProtestaCatholicJewishOtherDo Not PHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KMitt RomBarack O
Favorable43%43%42%20%39%47%50%33%49%44%36%45%24%48%26%54%33%26%43%56%37%38%52%43%40%44%37%44%44%43%41%25%53%
Unfavorable10%14%6%10%10%9%12%10%10%9%21%5%5%12%18%6%11%20%11%4%13%17%7%6%9%5%10%11%5%9%13%25%3%
Neutral33%30%35%42%30%32%32%34%32%34%28%29%34%33%40%29%36%38%34%27%42%32%28%35%32%38%37%31%30%35%32%35%32%
No Opinion15%13%17%28%21%12%6%23%9%13%15%22%38%8%16%10%21%16%12%14%9%13%14%17%18%13%17%14%21%12%13%16%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%25%34%27%39%61%74%12%10%21%79%25%55%18%23%40%33%16%22%26%14%22%7%28%64%15%33%52%30%63%
 
 
Is your opinion of Howard Berman ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
628 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyReligionEducationIncomePresidential Vot
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLanlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalProtestaCatholicJewishOtherDo Not PHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KMitt RomBarack O
Favorable35%37%32%19%30%38%42%26%40%36%29%31%14%40%25%43%23%26%34%44%35%26%44%30%36%26%34%35%26%35%37%26%41%
Unfavorable13%16%9%15%13%12%13%14%12%12%18%14%10%14%16%10%17%15%16%8%16%19%11%9%9%14%13%13%14%15%12%20%8%
Neutral33%30%36%31%34%32%35%33%33%35%32%23%26%35%40%31%35%42%31%30%36%37%28%38%29%41%31%33%34%32%34%36%32%
No Opinion20%17%22%35%24%18%10%28%14%17%22%32%51%11%19%16%25%17%19%19%13%18%17%23%26%19%22%19%26%19%17%18%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%25%34%27%39%61%74%12%10%21%79%25%55%18%23%40%33%16%22%26%14%22%7%28%64%15%33%52%30%63%
 
 
4Who is a more effective legislator?
628 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyReligionEducationIncomePresidential Vot
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLanlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalProtestaCatholicJewishOtherDo Not PHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KMitt RomBarack O
Brad Sherman37%37%36%27%36%38%40%33%39%36%41%41%31%39%35%40%31%27%42%37%35%42%37%33%33%41%37%36%39%40%34%33%38%
Howard Berman26%30%23%20%21%27%33%21%30%27%23%22%14%30%24%29%23%28%26%28%28%26%32%21%24%16%29%27%20%28%28%28%27%
Not Sure37%33%42%53%42%35%27%46%32%37%36%37%56%32%41%31%47%44%31%35%37%31%31%45%42%43%34%37%41%31%38%39%35%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%25%34%27%39%61%74%12%10%21%79%25%55%18%23%40%33%16%22%26%14%22%7%28%64%15%33%52%30%63%
 
 
Who is more focused on the needs of Valley residents?
628 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyReligionEducationIncomePresidential Vot
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLanlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalProtestaCatholicJewishOtherDo Not PHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KMitt RomBarack O
Brad Sherman42%41%43%37%40%44%45%39%44%41%45%46%34%45%39%46%35%33%47%44%44%47%44%36%37%43%41%42%44%48%39%35%45%
Howard Berman24%25%24%20%21%24%31%20%27%26%22%20%13%28%25%25%25%28%25%23%25%25%25%25%25%18%25%25%18%28%25%30%23%
Not Sure34%34%34%44%40%32%24%41%29%33%33%34%53%28%36%29%40%39%28%33%31%28%30%39%38%38%33%33%38%24%37%35%31%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%25%34%27%39%61%74%12%10%21%79%25%55%18%23%40%33%16%22%26%14%22%7%28%64%15%33%52%30%63%
 
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Or one of the other candidates?
628 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyReligionEducationIncomePresidential Vot
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLanlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalProtestaCatholicJewishOtherDo Not PHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KMitt RomBarack O
Mitt Romney (R)30%33%27%26%27%29%36%27%32%31%34%27%29%31%79%9%29%79%26%3%49%39%24%27%17%33%30%30%25%33%29%100%0%
Barack Obama (D)63%58%68%64%67%62%60%66%61%63%60%63%58%64%16%88%51%16%65%92%46%57%71%61%72%64%60%64%68%61%64%0%100%
Gary Johnson (L)2%3%2%1%4%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%0%3%1%0%9%1%3%2%2%1%3%1%4%1%3%2%0%2%3%0%0%
Other2%2%1%3%1%2%1%2%1%1%0%4%4%1%1%0%5%1%2%2%0%1%0%6%3%0%3%1%2%1%1%0%0%
Undecided3%3%3%5%1%5%2%3%4%3%4%4%9%1%2%2%6%4%3%2%4%2%2%5%4%2%4%3%4%3%2%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%25%34%27%39%61%74%12%10%21%79%25%55%18%23%40%33%16%22%26%14%22%7%28%64%15%33%52%30%63%