Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13269
Eve of FL GOP Primary, Clear Divisions Among Republicans, But No Clear Frontrunner: 24 Hours till voting ends in the Florida GOP Primary, it is easy to describe who is voting for Mitt Romney and who is voting for John McCain, but difficult to tell which of the two will win the Winner-Take-All Primary, according to SurveyUSA's 9th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. Romney has 32%, McCain 31% at this hour, effectively tied. Rudolph Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are far back. Romney leads by 17 points among voters focused on the Economy, and leads by 24 points among voters focused on Immigration. McCain leads by 14 points among voters focused on Terrorism and by 22 points among voters focused on Iraq. Romney leads by 16 among Conservatives. McCain leads by 28 among Moderates. Romney leads by 14 in SE FL. McCain leads Romney by 14 in NW FL, where Huckabee, showing twice the strength he shows elsewhere in Florida, is six points behind McCain. Romney and McCain are effectively tied in NE FL and Central FL. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one week ago, completed after McCain won South Carolina, but before Fred Thompson dropped out, both Romney and McCain are up significantly. But Romney is up slightly more, and may have the slightest additional momentum at the wire.
Filtering / Timing: 2,000 Florida adults were interviewed 01/27/08. Of them, 1,790 were registered to vote. Of them 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be Republicans who had either already voted in the GOP Primary, using early voting, or who were likely to vote at the precinct on 01/29/08. Among those who said they had already voted: Romney 36%, McCain 31%. Among those who had not yet voted, but who told SurveyUSA that their mind was made-up, and they would not change it before the Primary: McCain 32%, Romney 32%. SurveyUSA will endeavor to conduct some additional interviews Monday night 01/28/08, to see if there is unanticipated last-minute movement in the contest.
Interactive Tracking Graphs: Click on the "Triangle-T" where-ever you see it to open SurveyUSA's exclusive interactive tracking graphs. SurveyUSA is the only opinion pollster to release interactive tracking graphs with its election poll results. See Romney catch McCain among women voters here. See Giuliani and McCain change places, among Moderate voters, here. See Giuliani's support in SE FL erode from 54% to 16% here. See McCain go from 12% in Central FL to 34%, here.
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Ron Paul? Or some other Republican?
608 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderEarly VotingRaceIdeologyAge<50 / 50+RegionAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next President
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemaleActual VLikely VWhiteBlackHispanicOtherConservaModerateLiberal18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+North WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth EaRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%54%46%27%73%77%2%18%2%62%25%6%11%28%28%33%39%61%10%10%32%19%29%51%25%24%55%41%19%79%37%2%8%9%19%3%1%17%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.