Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16889
 
5 Days Until MN DFL Primary, Dayton Leads Rivals: In a DFL Primary for Governor of Minnesota today, 08/05/10, former US Senator Mark Dayton defeats State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza, according to a KSTP-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today it's Dayton 43%, Kelliher 27%, Entenza 22%, essentially unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll released 7 weeks ago. Kelliher runs most strongly among women, but Dayton has gained support in that group and now leads by 12 points among female voters, up from 5 points 7 weeks ago. Entenza runs most strongly among the youngest voters, where he today trails Dayton by 8 points, and among those identifying themselves as Republicans, where he today nominally leads his opponents. Both groups are minorities among likely DFL primary voters. Minnesota voters do not declare party affiliations, and any voter can vote in the DFL primary.
 
Republican Emmer Now Trails DFL Candidates in November Matchups: Republican Tom Emmer, who 3 months ago led each of his potential DFL opponents in hypothetical general election contests, today trails in each:

* Against Democrat Mark Dayton today, it's Dayton 46%, Emmer 32%.
* Against Democrat Margaret Anderson Kelliher today, it's Kelliher 39%, Emmer 33%.
* Against Democrat Matt Entenza today, it's Entenza 38%, Emmer 33%.
* Independence Party candidate Tom Horner gets 1 in 8 votes in each matchup; 1 in 5 votes among independents should Dayton not be the DFL nominee.

Compared to identical SurveyUSA tracking polls released 7 weeks ago ...
* Dayton is up 8 points; Emmer is down 3;
* Kelliher is up 6 points; Emmer is down 2;
* Entenza is up 5 points; Emmer is down 4.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,850 Minnesota adults 08/02/10 through 08/04/10; of them, 1,692 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 510 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the August 10 DFL primary. SurveyUSA then determined that, of the registered voters, 1,326 were likely to vote in the November 2010 general election. Incumbent governor Republican Tim Pawlenty, a potential 2012 Presidential candidate, is not seeking reelection.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the DFL primary for governor were today, who would you vote for? Margaret Anderson Kelliher? Mark Dayton? Matt Entenza? Or Peter Idusogie?
510 Likely DFL Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Kelliher27%21%32%26%21%31%27%23%29%27%******26%31%18%25%26%32%15%33%24%18%33%20%28%21%31%21%30%28%27%25%29%27%20%26%31%
Dayton43%42%44%37%40%42%50%39%46%43%******23%48%43%28%47%47%40%43%38%55%37%50%41%49%42%40%47%40%48%54%40%42%51%41%41%
Entenza22%27%18%29%28%21%15%28%18%22%******29%19%26%26%20%19%29%20%25%19%25%19%22%25%17%23%19%22%19%17%22%24%22%27%14%
Idusogie1%3%0%0%3%1%1%2%1%1%******1%0%4%3%2%0%4%1%2%0%2%1%1%1%4%3%1%2%1%1%2%1%4%0%2%
Undecided7%7%6%9%8%5%7%8%6%7%******21%2%9%17%5%2%12%3%12%7%4%10%8%4%6%13%4%7%5%4%7%6%3%6%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely DFL Primary Voters100%49%51%13%28%32%27%41%59%93%3%2%2%14%58%26%19%49%27%14%52%20%14%51%49%50%26%23%30%68%52%46%33%67%57%12%12%19%
 
 
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who would you vote for?
1326 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)33%36%30%37%42%26%23%40%25%33%******70%4%29%63%22%4%68%5%30%30%34%33%39%31%22%51%18%39%25%25%37%35%22%33%34%
Kelliher (DFL)39%34%44%33%32%45%46%33%45%39%******9%74%30%12%48%73%7%74%35%35%41%36%36%39%49%22%55%33%49%44%37%38%43%36%40%
Horner (IP)12%14%9%13%12%13%9%12%11%12%******8%7%21%12%13%7%13%9%14%11%12%11%8%14%17%11%12%13%9%12%11%11%17%12%10%
Undecided17%16%17%17%13%17%22%14%19%17%******13%15%20%13%17%15%12%13%21%24%13%19%18%15%13%16%16%15%17%20%14%16%18%19%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%18%33%28%21%51%49%94%2%2%2%32%36%28%34%43%17%29%32%23%16%51%49%53%27%20%47%50%56%42%29%71%59%13%14%15%
 
 
What if the only candidates on the ballot for Governor were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner?
1326 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)32%35%30%35%42%26%23%39%25%32%******71%3%27%62%22%4%69%3%29%28%32%33%37%30%22%51%16%38%25%23%36%35%22%32%32%
Dayton (DFL)46%42%50%43%37%53%55%39%54%46%******8%83%44%15%58%79%10%83%40%48%47%45%41%51%52%28%62%41%55%55%43%45%48%48%48%
Horner (IP)9%11%7%6%10%10%8%9%9%9%******8%5%16%11%9%6%10%6%14%7%9%9%7%10%14%9%9%9%8%8%10%8%14%9%8%
Undecided13%12%13%16%11%12%14%13%13%12%******13%9%13%13%11%11%10%8%16%18%12%13%14%10%12%12%12%12%12%13%12%12%15%11%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%18%33%28%21%51%49%94%2%2%2%32%36%28%34%43%17%29%32%23%16%51%49%53%27%20%47%50%56%42%29%71%59%13%14%15%
 
 
What if the candidates were Republican Tom Emmer, DFL candidate Matt Entenza, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner?
1326 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)33%36%29%33%42%28%25%39%26%33%******71%4%27%65%20%6%69%5%29%29%33%33%39%29%23%51%18%39%24%25%36%35%23%32%34%
Entenza (DFL)38%36%41%44%33%41%39%37%40%38%******11%70%33%11%49%69%8%71%37%33%41%36%34%44%44%24%52%35%47%41%38%37%43%42%36%
Horner (IP)12%14%10%9%12%15%12%11%13%13%******7%9%22%12%15%9%13%10%14%13%12%12%10%13%16%12%13%13%11%13%12%11%16%12%13%
Undecided17%14%20%14%13%17%24%13%20%17%******11%17%18%12%16%17%10%15%19%25%14%18%17%14%16%13%17%14%18%21%14%17%19%13%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%18%33%28%21%51%49%94%2%2%2%32%36%28%34%43%17%29%32%23%16%51%49%53%27%20%47%50%56%42%29%71%59%13%14%15%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.