Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17357

Minnesota Men, Moderates Drift Ever-So-Slightly to DFL Dayton, Solidifying His Advantage Over Republican Emmer in Statehouse Bid:

In an election today 10/14/10 in the open Minnesota Governor contest, DFL candidate Mark Dayton edges Republican Tom Emmer, 42% to 37%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis-St. Paul and KAAL-TV in Rochester MN.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Dayton is up 4 points, Emmer is up 1, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is down 4. Among men, Emmer had led Dayton by 9, now by 4. Among Moderates, Dayton had led Emmer 5:3, now 2:1. Regions are stable: effectively even in the Twin Cities, a single-digit DFL advantage in Southern and Western MN and a double-digit DFL advantage in Northeastern MN. Horner's support is down materially among Independents and among voters age 50+.

By 9:1, voters say the way to balance Minnesota's budget is to cut spending, not raise taxes.
By 5:3, voters want to expand legalized gambling in Minnesota.
By 2:1, voters tell the Vikings to go build their own stadium.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Minnesota adults 10/11/10 through 10/13/10. Of them, 943 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 712 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 18 days from today. Incumbent Governor Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking a 3rd term.

[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate?

712 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Emmer (R)	264	151	113	37	113	67	47	150	114	249	6	5	5	160	14	75	170	77	11	158	12	65	26	264	0	0	1	214	38	50	79	80	16	70	158	143	87	75	168	16	118	114	77	163	156	32	42	33
Dayton (DFL)	300	136	164	62	76	86	76	138	161	276	5	1	17	26	182	70	39	156	86	22	177	56	32	0	300	0	41	75	158	189	27	27	26	80	165	137	96	99	161	50	66	144	101	160	163	41	48	48
Horner (IP)	101	52	49	26	36	24	15	62	40	97	0	0	4	30	28	39	29	50	15	25	26	34	13	0	0	101	1	44	49	36	15	31	10	33	60	63	22	29	56	13	29	54	24	70	63	12	15	12
Other	21	10	11	5	3	5	7	8	13	17	1	1	2	3	6	10	6	8	4	1	3	11	5	0	0	0	0	12	7	7	4	3	3	3	14	10	6	4	11	1	10	6	10	8	10	4	2	4
Undecided	26	8	17	1	13	5	7	14	12	20	1	0	4	4	10	7	8	13	1	5	3	7	10	0	0	0	1	16	5	9	2	1	7	2	16	9	8	4	16	1	13	8	13	9	14	6	2	3
Total	712	358	354	131	241	187	153	372	340	660	13	8	31	223	240	201	252	303	117	210	221	172	85	264	300	101	44	361	257	291	126	142	63	188	413	363	219	211	412	82	237	325	227	409	407	95	109	101
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	50%	50%	18%	34%	26%	21%	52%	48%	93%	2%	1%	4%	32%	34%	29%	36%	43%	17%	31%	32%	25%	12%	37%	42%	14%	6%	53%	38%	43%	19%	21%	9%	28%	62%	55%	33%	32%	62%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	13%	15%	14%

2	What do you think is the best way to balance the state budget? Raise taxes? Cut spending? Or both?

684 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Raise Taxes	44	23	21	16	10	11	8	26	19	44	0	0	0	4	32	8	5	19	19	4	33	4	3	1	41	1	44	0	0	32	6	2	4	14	26	18	18	19	23	16	7	20	14	29	28	7	4	6
Cut Spending	361	192	169	60	138	88	75	198	163	333	8	6	13	166	66	114	197	113	36	178	40	101	42	214	75	44	0	361	0	104	96	93	29	85	234	220	101	110	221	24	159	153	125	207	195	43	69	54
Both	257	125	132	37	76	81	62	114	143	240	4	1	13	44	130	69	42	153	55	27	140	61	30	38	158	49	0	0	257	144	24	46	26	89	136	119	94	77	153	41	66	139	72	170	154	38	30	33
Not Sure	22	8	15	9	7	3	3	16	6	19	0	0	3	5	5	6	2	13	6	1	6	5	10	6	10	3	0	0	0	12	0	0	4	1	16	6	5	4	14	1	4	14	15	4	12	4	2	4
Total	684	348	336	122	231	183	148	353	331	636	12	7	29	219	233	197	246	297	116	210	218	171	85	259	283	97	44	361	257	291	126	142	63	188	413	363	219	211	412	82	237	325	227	409	389	91	106	97
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	34%	27%	22%	52%	48%	93%	2%	1%	4%	32%	34%	29%	36%	43%	17%	31%	32%	25%	12%	38%	41%	14%	6%	53%	38%	43%	19%	21%	9%	28%	62%	55%	33%	32%	62%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	13%	16%	14%

3	If taxes were to be raised, which do you think would be the most fair? Income taxes for upper income Minnesotans ? Income taxes for all Minnesotans? The sales tax? Or corporate taxes?

670 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Taxes For Upper Income	291	130	161	57	80	77	78	136	155	276	5	1	9	62	146	70	70	136	76	42	139	70	40	50	189	36	32	104	144	291	0	0	0	65	199	148	108	84	192	44	93	147	119	165	161	37	46	48
Taxes For All	126	74	52	38	37	34	17	75	51	115	6	1	4	59	21	43	60	50	12	68	17	31	10	79	27	15	6	96	24	0	126	0	0	33	76	68	37	47	74	15	43	59	28	82	80	12	18	16
Sales Tax	142	85	57	18	50	44	30	68	74	136	1	1	3	56	29	52	72	53	15	66	30	39	6	80	27	31	2	93	46	0	0	142	0	74	53	84	44	45	82	16	50	73	41	97	73	26	27	16
Corporate Taxes	63	27	36	8	32	14	9	41	23	55	0	2	6	17	23	13	14	36	8	10	23	17	13	16	26	10	4	29	26	0	0	0	63	13	46	38	18	21	36	4	26	28	16	43	36	13	6	9
Not Sure	48	22	26	1	24	13	10	25	23	41	0	1	5	15	12	18	24	19	3	23	6	9	10	28	9	5	0	33	11	0	0	0	0	4	38	25	10	14	29	4	24	18	22	22	32	4	6	6
Total	670	338	332	122	223	182	143	345	325	623	11	7	29	210	231	196	240	292	115	209	215	167	79	253	278	97	44	356	250	291	126	142	63	188	413	363	219	211	412	82	237	325	227	409	382	91	102	94
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	50%	50%	18%	33%	27%	21%	52%	48%	93%	2%	1%	4%	31%	34%	29%	36%	44%	17%	31%	32%	25%	12%	38%	42%	15%	7%	53%	37%	43%	19%	21%	9%	28%	62%	55%	33%	32%	62%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	14%	15%	14%

4	If the state sales tax rate is lowered, should the sales tax be expanded to also include clothing?

665 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Yes	188	108	81	31	62	66	30	92	96	172	4	4	8	55	76	49	57	93	31	56	75	41	16	70	80	33	14	85	89	65	33	74	13	188	0	114	60	80	101	21	61	104	42	139	106	28	30	24
No	413	205	208	78	141	98	96	218	194	385	6	2	19	137	133	121	162	172	65	127	122	110	53	158	165	60	26	234	136	199	76	53	46	0	413	228	133	112	274	53	156	194	158	241	236	58	57	62
Not Sure	64	26	38	10	20	18	16	30	34	61	1	0	2	17	20	25	20	22	19	24	17	15	8	23	31	5	4	33	25	25	16	15	3	0	0	21	25	18	37	8	19	27	27	30	37	4	15	7
Total	665	338	327	119	222	181	143	341	324	619	11	7	29	208	229	194	239	288	115	208	214	165	78	251	276	97	44	352	250	290	125	142	62	188	413	363	219	211	412	82	237	325	227	409	379	90	102	94
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	33%	27%	21%	51%	49%	93%	2%	1%	4%	31%	34%	29%	36%	43%	17%	31%	32%	25%	12%	38%	41%	15%	7%	53%	38%	44%	19%	21%	9%	28%	62%	55%	33%	32%	62%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	13%	15%	14%

5	Do you support? Or oppose? Explanding legal gambling in Minnesota?

661 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Support	363	214	149	70	124	97	73	194	169	340	7	3	12	127	124	100	142	157	50	125	97	94	46	143	137	63	18	220	119	148	68	84	38	114	228	363	0	150	194	39	128	192	113	242	210	46	57	50
Oppose	219	99	120	21	74	65	59	95	124	201	4	3	11	67	76	68	79	91	40	62	83	52	22	87	96	22	18	101	94	108	37	44	18	60	133	0	219	39	171	29	87	99	79	132	118	37	27	37
Not Sure	80	22	58	29	21	19	11	50	29	77	0	0	3	14	29	26	17	36	25	20	32	19	9	21	40	12	8	30	34	33	19	13	3	14	48	0	0	22	47	14	22	34	35	36	48	7	18	7
Total	661	335	326	119	220	180	143	339	323	618	11	7	27	208	229	193	239	284	115	207	212	165	78	251	273	97	44	351	247	289	124	142	60	188	409	363	219	211	412	82	237	325	227	409	376	89	102	94
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	33%	27%	22%	51%	49%	93%	2%	1%	4%	31%	35%	29%	36%	43%	17%	31%	32%	25%	12%	38%	41%	15%	7%	53%	37%	44%	19%	21%	9%	28%	62%	55%	33%	32%	62%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	14%	15%	14%

6	Do you support? Or oppose? Using state money to help finance a new stadium for the Minnesota Vikings?

660 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Support	211	143	68	51	73	54	33	124	87	190	6	3	12	73	73	59	69	99	36	72	66	52	21	75	99	29	19	110	77	84	47	45	21	80	112	150	39	211	0	37	54	111	50	152	110	29	36	36
Oppose	412	180	232	59	136	114	103	195	217	389	5	4	15	125	143	122	158	169	68	132	133	96	50	168	161	56	23	221	153	192	74	82	36	101	274	194	171	0	412	43	176	187	158	239	245	56	57	53
Not Sure	38	12	26	10	10	11	7	20	18	38	0	0	0	11	12	12	10	16	10	3	12	17	6	7	12	12	2	19	17	13	3	14	4	7	22	19	9	0	0	2	7	27	18	19	20	4	9	5
Total	660	335	325	119	220	179	143	339	322	617	11	7	27	208	229	193	238	284	115	207	212	165	77	250	272	97	44	350	247	289	124	142	60	188	408	363	218	211	412	82	237	325	227	409	375	89	102	94
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	18%	33%	27%	22%	51%	49%	93%	2%	1%	4%	31%	35%	29%	36%	43%	17%	31%	32%	25%	12%	38%	41%	15%	7%	53%	37%	44%	19%	21%	9%	28%	62%	55%	33%	32%	62%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	14%	15%	14%

7	Is the state economy getting better? Getting worse? Or staying about the same?

653 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			Tea Party Movement				Vote For Governor			Balance Budget			Most Fair				Sales Tax On Clo		Expand Gambling?		Vikings Stadium?		Economy Next Year			Income		Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Favorabl	Unfavora	Neutral	No Opini	Emmer (R	Dayton (	Horner (	Raise Ta	Cut Spen	Both	Taxes Fo	Taxes Fo	Sales Ta	Corporat	Yes	No	Support	Oppose	Support	Oppose	Getting	Getting	Same	< $50K	> $50K	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Getting Better	82	48	34	18	25	24	15	43	39	77	5	0	0	18	43	18	14	39	26	14	42	21	5	16	50	13	16	24	41	44	15	16	4	21	53	39	29	37	43	82	0	0	16	64	51	9	11	11
Getting Worse	237	107	129	25	84	76	52	109	128	224	1	4	8	92	65	66	113	82	28	101	53	54	29	118	66	29	7	159	66	93	43	50	26	61	156	128	87	54	176	0	237	0	92	138	137	31	38	31
Same	325	176	150	69	109	77	71	178	148	301	5	3	17	96	116	100	108	159	52	83	114	86	42	114	144	54	20	153	139	147	59	73	28	104	194	192	99	111	187	0	0	325	115	203	181	48	44	52
Not Sure	9	3	6	0	1	2	5	1	7	7	1	0	1	2	3	2	1	5	2	1	4	4	1	2	4	1	1	5	2	4	1	2	1	1	5	4	3	1	5	0	0	0	4	5	6	1	1	0
Total	653	335	318	112	220	179	142	331	321	609	11	7	27	208	228	186	237	284	107	199	211	165	77	250	264	97	44	342	247	288	116	142	60	188	408	362	218	203	411	82	237	325	227	409	375	89	94	94
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	51%	49%	17%	34%	27%	22%	51%	49%	93%	2%	1%	4%	32%	35%	28%	36%	44%	16%	31%	32%	25%	12%	38%	41%	15%	7%	52%	38%	44%	18%	22%	9%	29%	63%	56%	33%	31%	63%	13%	36%	50%	36%	64%	57%	14%	14%	14%