Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12128
On Eve of Philadelphia Mayor Primary, All the Pieces Fall Into Place for Michael Nutter: Hours till polls open in the Philadelphia Democratic Primary for Mayor, City Councilman Michael Nutter, 49, is poised for victory, having moved from last place 90 days ago to 1st place today, according to this 5th and final SurveyUSA tracking poll of likely Democratic Primary voters conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV, News 10, in Philadelphia. Nutter's rise, from 8% on February 15 to 36% today, May 14, reflects the broad coalition he has assembled. Among likely white voters, Nutter leapt from 11% on February 15 to 34% on May 1, when he still ran 2nd among whites to former Deputy Mayor Tom Knox, to now 40% today among whites, where he is in 1st place, 7 points ahead of Knox. Among likely black voters, Nutter, who is black, leapt from 5% on February 15 to 20% on May 1, where Nutter still ran 2nd among blacks to U.S. Congressman Chaka Fattah, to now 34% today, where Nutter leads all others and is 11 points ahead of Fattah. Nutter went from last place to first place among male voters; from last place to first place among female voters. Among voters age 35 to 49, Nutter's support increased 7 fold, from 6% in February to 42% today. Among the large number of likely Primary voters who think crime is the city's most important issue, Nutter was in 4th place as recently as 30 days ago, behind Knox, Fattah and U.S. Congressman Bob Brady, but today, Knox leads all others among voters focused on crime, 10 points ahead of Knox. The contest was once turnout dependent. It no longer appears to be.
Filtering: 1,000 city of Philadelphia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/11/07 through 05/13/07. Of them, 920 were registered to vote. Of them, 698 were Democrats. Of the Democrats, 560 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 5/15/07 Democratic Primary and are included in this survey. The winner of the Democratic primary advances to a general election. In the city of Philadelphia, Democrats outnumber Republicans 5:1, so the winner of the Democratic primary is the presumptive winner of the general election and the presumptive Mayor-Elect. Two-term incumbent Mayor John F. Street is not seeking re-election.
Caveat: This poll was commissioned by WCAU-TV. Chaka Fattah, one of the candidates running for Mayor, is married to WCAU-TV news anchor Renee Chenault-Fattah.
If the Democratic primary for Philadelphia mayor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Bob Brady? Dwight Evans? Chaka Fattah? Tom Knox? Michael Nutter? Or, some other Democrat?
560 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+GenerationRaceManagement Of CiMumia TrialMost Important Issue
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMatureWhiteBlackHispanicOtherWell ManPoorly MReceivedDid NotCrimeHonestyEducatioJobsTaxesHealthcaSomethin
Bob Brady12%15%11%13%12%11%14%13%12%17%12%9%12%14%18%6%15%**12%13%19%9%17%11%3%4%******
Dwight Evans6%4%7%6%7%7%3%6%5%4%7%7%7%3%1%11%5%**3%5%2%10%6%5%2%7%******
Chaka Fattah13%12%14%13%15%13%11%14%12%15%14%13%13%11%4%23%10%**29%11%6%24%11%7%33%22%******
Tom Knox25%28%24%31%17%25%32%23%28%32%22%21%25%32%33%15%47%**18%28%36%17%26%27%27%33%******
Michael Nutter36%35%36%27%42%39%34%35%37%20%37%42%40%34%40%34%18%**33%36%34%33%36%45%27%26%******
Composition of Likely Voters100%45%55%25%31%23%21%56%44%13%25%24%18%21%48%43%6%3%8%84%45%30%56%14%10%8%4%3%2%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.