Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25404
 
In Ranked-Choice Voting in GOP Primary in Maine's 2nd District for US House of Representatives, No Candidate Has Majority on 1st Vote,
Crafts, Bennett Better Positioned Than Brakey to Emerge with Right to Oppose 1st-Term Democrat Golden In November General Election:


6 days until votes are counted In the fiercely fought Republican primary in Maine's 2nd US Congressional District, Dale Crafts has a plurality of votes, but that may or may not be enough to hand him the nomination, given that Maine uses real-time ranked-choice voting in this contest, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for FairVote.

At this hour, with early voting underway but most ballots yet to be cast, the contest stands this way ...

When likely GOP primary voters are asked their 1st choice:

* 37% pick Crafts.
* 25% pick Bennett.
* 19% pick Brakey.

Under Maine law, if no one candidate receives a majority of the votes cast (50% + 1 vote), then the candidate who receives the fewest 1st-choice votes is eliminated automatically and vote counters look at voters' 2nd choice. When likely GOP primary voters are asked their 2nd choice:

* 28% pick Bennett.
* 24% pick Crafts.
* 20% pick Brakey.

* Of those whose 1st choice is Brakey, 40% choose Crafts as their 2nd choice, 33% choose Bennett.
* Of those whose 1st choice is Crafts, 45% choose Bennett as their 2nd choice, 25% choose Brakey.
* Of those whose 1st choice is Bennett, 46% choose Crafts as their 2nd choice, 28% choose Brakey.

Of likely GOP primary voters from ME-02:

* 55% have a favorable opinion of Crafts (25% "very" favorable); 7% unfavorable.
* 40% have a favorable opinion of Bennett (16% "very" favorable); 12% unfavorable.
* 34% have a favorable opinion of Brakey (13% "very" favorable); 22% unfavorable.
* Crafts is 24 points atop Bennett among "very conservative" primary voters.
* Bennett is 2 points atop Crafts among "moderate" primary voters.
* Bennett is 6 points atop Crafts among younger primary voters, under age 50.
* Crafts is 23 points atop Bennett among seniors, age 65+.
* The younger the electorate, the better Bennett will do. The older the electorate, the better Crafts will do.
* Crafts is up by 14 or more points among lower and middle-income voters; Bennett closes to within 3 points among affluent voters.
* Crafts is up by 12 or more points among voters without a 4-year college degree; Crafts leads by 8 points among those with a 4-year degree.

Among all registered Republicans in ME-02:

* 82% have a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump (57% "very" favorable). Trump will be on the 11/03/20 ballot.
* 65% have a favorable opinion of US Senator Susan Collins (28% "very" favorable). Collins will be on the 11/03/20 ballot.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults believed to be registered Republicans from Maine's 2nd US Congressional District, the largest Congressional District in square miles East of the Mississippi River, 06/30/20 through 07/06/20. Of the adults, 848 confirmed that they are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 738 confirmed that they are registered as Republicans. Of the confirmed registered Republicans, 685 confirmed that they live in the 2nd district. Of the confirmed 2nd district Republicans, 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 07/14/20 Republican primary deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, tri-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (49% of likely primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (51% of likely primary voters) were either interviewed by telephone, using live, trained interviewers who hand-dialed each cell phone, secured the safety and cooperation of the cell-phone respondent, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the successful completion of the interview, or were shown a questionnaire on the display of their laptop, smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2018, Democrat Jared Golden was elected to his 1st term in the US House of Representatives, defeating Republican Bruce Poliquin by 1 percentage point.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Maine?
900 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 1.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Yes94%96%92%79%90%97%100%86%99%97%97%92%****97%92%91%100%100%100%88%96%97%89%95%99%89%92%95%91%98%
No6%4%8%21%10%3%0%14%1%3%3%8%****3%8%9%---12%4%3%11%5%1%11%8%5%9%2%
Not Sure0%------------------------------
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%52%48%12%23%29%35%35%65%27%38%25%4%2%65%25%6%25%19%37%26%37%38%32%39%29%9%18%72%56%44%
 
2Are you registered as a ...
848 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Democrat7%6%9%16%13%6%2%14%4%2%2%10%****2%10%51%---9%6%6%11%8%3%21%9%5%10%4%
Republican87%89%85%67%77%90%96%74%93%96%97%78%****97%78%31%100%100%100%81%89%89%82%85%94%72%84%89%81%94%
Other2%1%3%1%4%1%1%3%1%1%1%4%****1%4%4%---4%1%1%1%3%1%3%2%1%3%0%
Unaffiliated3%4%3%9%5%2%2%7%2%1%1%7%****1%7%13%---3%3%4%4%4%2%1%4%4%5%2%
Not Sure1%1%1%6%1%0%0%2%0%0%0%2%****0%2%1%---2%1%0%2%0%0%2%0%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%53%47%10%22%30%37%32%68%27%39%24%4%2%67%24%5%25%19%37%24%37%39%30%39%30%9%18%73%54%46%
 
3Do you live in Maine's 1st US Congressional District? Or Maine's 2nd US Congressional District? The 1st district includes the greater Portland area, along the coast to Camden, and up though Augusta and Waterville. Its current Member of Congress is Chellie Pingree. The 2nd congressional district includes Lewiston and Auburn, Bangor, northern and rural parts of the state and Downeast. Its current representative is Jared Golden and its previous representative was Bruce Poliquin.
738 Registered RepublicansAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
1st District0%------------------------------
2nd District93%94%92%81%93%92%96%89%94%93%93%94%****93%94%**96%95%95%90%93%94%91%95%92%91%90%93%91%95%
Not Sure7%6%8%19%7%8%4%11%6%7%7%6%****7%6%**4%5%5%10%7%6%9%5%8%9%10%7%9%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Republicans100%54%46%8%20%31%41%27%73%30%44%22%1%1%74%22%2%25%19%37%22%38%40%29%39%32%7%17%75%51%49%
 
4Is your opinion of President Donald Trump... very favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Very unfavorable? Or do you have no opinion of Donald Trump one way or the other?
738 Registered RepublicansAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Favorable57%62%52%45%56%59%59%53%59%85%53%32%****66%32%**68%54%69%66%60%50%56%62%55%53%50%60%53%62%
Favorable25%22%28%35%32%25%20%33%22%14%34%24%****25%24%**22%34%21%21%27%25%24%24%27%29%28%24%30%19%
Neutral6%6%5%9%3%7%5%4%6%1%7%7%****5%7%**4%3%5%4%5%7%8%4%6%7%8%5%6%5%
Unfavorable3%2%4%5%4%2%3%4%2%0%3%7%****2%7%**1%2%1%3%2%4%3%2%3%1%4%2%3%3%
Very Unfavorable8%8%9%6%6%6%12%6%10%0%3%28%****2%28%**6%7%4%5%5%14%8%9%8%8%11%8%6%11%
No Opinion1%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%2%****0%2%**---2%0%0%1%0%0%2%0%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Republicans100%54%46%8%20%31%41%27%73%30%44%22%1%1%74%22%2%25%19%37%22%38%40%29%39%32%7%17%75%51%49%
 
5Is your opinion of United States Senator Susan Collins... very favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Very unfavorable? Or do you have no opinion of Susan Collins one way or the other?
738 Registered RepublicansAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Favorable28%27%29%18%15%29%35%16%32%29%23%36%****25%36%**25%29%33%27%24%32%26%23%35%40%24%27%21%35%
Favorable37%37%38%25%40%39%37%36%38%40%42%25%****42%25%**39%42%41%37%39%37%39%42%32%23%39%39%41%34%
Neutral19%20%17%25%27%19%14%27%16%18%20%20%****19%20%**26%15%13%19%21%17%19%18%20%17%23%18%24%14%
Unfavorable9%10%8%21%12%6%8%14%8%8%10%10%****9%10%**7%11%8%11%9%9%8%12%8%11%5%10%8%11%
Very Unfavorable5%4%5%7%2%5%5%4%5%3%4%10%****3%10%**2%4%4%4%5%5%6%4%4%5%8%4%5%5%
No Opinion1%1%1%4%2%1%1%3%1%2%1%1%****1%1%**1%0%1%1%2%1%3%1%1%4%0%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Republicans100%54%46%8%20%31%41%27%73%30%44%22%1%1%74%22%2%25%19%37%22%38%40%29%39%32%7%17%75%51%49%
 
6Maine Republicans will have a chance to vote in a Republican Primary on July 14. Not everyone makes the time to vote in a primary. Would you say you are certain not to vote in the Republican Primary? Unlikely to vote in the Republican primary? Maybe 50% / 50% on whether I'll have a chance to vote? Likely to vote in the Republican Primary? Or 100% certain to vote in the Republican primary?
738 Registered RepublicansAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Certain Not To Vote4%5%4%4%4%5%4%4%4%6%3%5%****4%5%**---3%6%3%5%4%4%3%4%4%6%2%
Unlikely To Vote3%3%3%11%4%3%1%6%2%2%3%5%****3%5%**---4%4%2%6%2%2%2%5%3%4%2%
Maybe 50% / 50%9%9%10%24%14%5%7%17%6%3%12%13%****8%13%**---11%11%7%13%7%9%9%16%8%12%7%
Likely To Vote15%13%17%18%16%15%12%17%14%9%17%16%****14%16%**16%19%15%15%12%17%14%17%12%18%15%14%15%14%
100% Certain To Vote68%70%66%43%59%71%75%55%73%80%64%61%****71%61%**84%81%85%66%66%71%62%69%72%66%60%70%63%74%
Not Sure1%1%0%0%2%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%****1%1%**---1%0%1%0%1%1%3%1%0%0%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Republicans100%54%46%8%20%31%41%27%73%30%44%22%1%1%74%22%2%25%19%37%22%38%40%29%39%32%7%17%75%51%49%
 
7Which best describes you? Will you vote in person at your precinct on Tuesday, July 14? Will you vote by mail in the Republican primary, but have not yet returned your ballot? Or have you already returned your Republican primary ballot?
611 Republicans Who Say They Are Likely or Certain To VoteAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Will Vote In Person79%78%80%89%87%82%72%87%76%86%82%63%****84%63%**83%78%82%76%82%77%76%81%78%57%73%82%81%77%
By Mail / Not Yet Returned12%12%12%6%11%11%14%10%12%8%10%21%****9%21%**8%16%9%13%11%12%15%10%11%27%15%10%10%13%
Have Already Returned8%9%8%5%1%6%14%2%10%4%7%14%****6%14%**9%6%9%7%6%11%8%7%10%16%10%7%7%10%
Not Sure1%1%1%0%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%2%****1%2%**---3%1%1%1%1%1%0%3%1%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans Who Say They Are Likely or Certain To Vote100%54%46%6%18%33%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%7%16%77%48%52%
 
83 Republicans are running for Congress in Maine's 2nd US Congressional District. They are ...
Adrienne Bennett, former newswoman and press secretary to former Maine governor Paul LePage; Eric Brakey, a former state senator and 2018 Republican U.S. Senate nominee; and Dale Crafts, a businessman and former state representative.
Is your opinion of Adrienne Bennett... very favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Very unfavorable? Or do you have no opinion of Adrienne Bennett one way or the other?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Favorable16%19%13%22%18%16%15%19%15%22%13%15%****17%15%**53%4%4%21%15%15%18%12%20%19%15%16%15%17%
Favorable24%25%23%17%28%27%22%25%24%24%28%20%****26%20%**36%18%26%22%25%25%20%26%24%17%23%25%24%24%
Neutral32%30%34%29%33%33%31%32%32%30%32%37%****32%37%**9%42%42%23%36%34%28%33%35%25%34%33%37%28%
Unfavorable8%9%7%2%6%7%10%5%9%6%8%12%****7%12%**0%17%9%6%7%10%8%9%6%8%9%8%5%10%
Very Unfavorable4%4%4%5%4%5%4%4%4%2%4%9%****3%9%**1%8%3%4%4%5%4%4%4%2%9%3%3%5%
No Opinion15%13%18%25%11%12%18%14%16%17%15%7%****16%7%**2%11%16%25%14%11%21%16%10%29%10%15%15%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
9What is your opinion of Eric Brakey?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Favorable13%14%11%3%19%11%12%16%12%17%13%7%****15%7%**5%52%3%14%11%13%12%16%10%8%14%13%10%15%
Favorable21%22%20%25%27%21%18%26%20%23%21%17%****22%17%**22%31%19%18%18%25%21%22%21%25%22%21%22%21%
Neutral32%33%30%36%36%35%27%36%30%27%34%35%****31%35%**43%13%37%26%38%30%25%34%35%24%32%33%39%26%
Unfavorable14%13%15%7%8%14%18%7%17%14%13%18%****13%18%**18%2%19%16%16%12%18%9%17%9%21%13%13%16%
Very Unfavorable8%7%8%11%2%7%10%4%9%8%5%12%****6%12%**8%0%9%4%7%9%8%7%6%9%5%7%3%12%
No Opinion12%10%15%17%8%11%14%10%13%10%13%11%****12%11%**5%1%13%22%9%10%17%11%10%26%6%12%14%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
10What is your opinion of Dale Crafts?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Favorable25%28%23%16%13%24%33%14%29%38%22%16%****29%16%**6%3%59%29%30%20%25%24%27%27%21%26%20%31%
Favorable30%31%28%24%40%32%25%36%28%29%34%26%****32%26%**30%39%33%30%24%35%27%32%30%29%30%30%30%29%
Neutral25%23%28%24%31%27%21%30%24%19%25%33%****23%33%**43%34%5%21%28%25%22%27%27%20%30%25%31%20%
Unfavorable4%5%4%8%4%3%5%5%4%2%4%8%****3%8%**6%8%0%1%5%6%7%3%4%3%5%4%3%5%
Very Unfavorable3%3%4%10%0%3%4%2%4%2%3%5%****2%5%**5%3%0%2%3%4%4%3%2%6%3%3%2%5%
No Opinion12%10%14%18%11%11%12%13%12%9%12%11%****11%11%**10%12%3%17%11%10%16%11%11%15%10%12%14%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
11If you were filling out your Republican Primary ballot right now, who is your 1st choice to represent you in the US House of Representatives? Adrienne Bennett? Eric Brakey? Or Dale Crafts?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Adrienne Bennett25%26%23%28%30%28%20%30%23%23%25%29%****24%29%**100%0%0%25%26%24%24%22%30%18%26%26%27%23%
Eric Brakey19%18%19%17%27%17%17%24%17%18%21%17%****19%17%**0%100%0%17%17%21%20%20%16%13%19%19%19%19%
Dale Crafts37%38%36%22%24%39%43%24%42%47%37%27%****41%27%**0%0%100%39%43%32%38%40%33%37%34%38%32%43%
Undecided19%17%21%32%19%16%20%22%18%13%17%26%****15%26%**0%0%0%20%14%23%18%18%21%32%21%17%23%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
12Who is your 2nd choice to represent you in the US House of Representatives?
489 With a 1st Choice VoteAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Adrienne Bennett28%29%28%**24%32%29%21%30%33%29%22%****31%22%**0%33%45%25%29%29%27%29%29%25%22%30%28%29%
Eric Brakey20%23%17%**24%20%18%26%19%24%19%18%****21%18%**28%0%25%17%24%19%16%24%20%18%23%21%22%19%
Dale Crafts24%23%25%**30%22%21%30%21%21%22%32%****22%32%**46%40%0%29%17%26%23%21%27%18%29%23%27%21%
Undecided28%26%30%**22%26%32%22%29%22%30%29%****26%29%**25%27%30%29%30%25%34%26%24%40%26%27%24%31%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of With a 1st Choice Vote100%55%45%5%18%34%43%23%77%35%44%18%1%1%79%18%1%31%23%46%21%38%40%27%41%33%6%15%78%45%55%
 
13Would you describe the process you just went through --- of naming a 1st choice and then naming a 2nd choice --- as very easy? Easy? Hard? Or very hard?
489 With a 1st Choice VoteAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Easy27%31%23%**37%22%27%36%25%26%26%32%****26%32%**24%37%25%32%21%31%33%28%22%38%22%28%21%32%
Easy41%38%45%**43%47%35%43%40%37%44%39%****41%39%**40%40%42%31%46%41%39%38%47%29%47%41%52%32%
Hard13%13%14%**10%14%15%8%14%15%11%15%****13%15%**18%9%12%12%13%13%8%14%17%8%16%13%12%14%
Very Hard12%12%11%**7%10%15%7%13%14%11%8%****13%8%**12%7%14%19%11%8%13%13%8%6%11%12%7%16%
Not Sure7%7%7%**3%7%8%5%8%7%8%6%****7%6%**6%6%8%6%8%7%7%7%7%19%4%7%8%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of With a 1st Choice Vote100%55%45%5%18%34%43%23%77%35%44%18%1%1%79%18%1%31%23%46%21%38%40%27%41%33%6%15%78%45%55%
 
14When 3 Republicans appear on the Republican Primary Ballot for US House of Representatives, it is possible that the candidate ahead in the first round of the primary may have just one-third of the votes cast. Is it important to you? ... Or not important to you? ... that the winner of a Maine primary have more than half of the votes cast?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Important26%25%28%11%21%25%32%19%29%28%26%24%****27%24%**28%30%28%29%30%22%37%23%23%13%26%28%23%30%
Important22%18%25%37%23%17%22%26%20%20%25%18%****23%18%**20%20%25%23%24%18%27%21%17%33%23%20%25%18%
Unimportant27%30%23%30%33%30%21%33%25%24%28%28%****26%28%**24%29%26%22%22%33%18%29%31%33%25%26%25%28%
Very Unimportant18%21%13%18%15%20%18%15%19%21%16%18%****18%18%**23%18%15%16%19%18%10%21%20%8%17%19%18%18%
Not Sure8%6%10%5%7%8%7%7%8%8%5%11%****6%11%**5%4%6%10%5%8%8%6%9%13%9%7%9%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
15This July 14 Republican primary will be a ranked-choice ballot. Do you understand what a ranked-choice ballot is?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Yes83%86%80%98%86%85%79%89%82%83%84%86%****84%86%**86%83%82%76%80%90%74%84%89%74%81%84%88%79%
No10%9%12%2%11%10%11%9%11%9%12%8%****10%8%**8%11%9%16%10%8%14%11%7%15%11%10%9%11%
Not Sure7%5%8%0%3%6%9%3%8%8%4%6%****6%6%**6%5%9%9%10%2%12%5%4%11%8%6%3%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
16In a ranked-choice primary, all voters have the opportunity, but not the obligation, to name a 2nd choice. Regardless of whether you think ranked-choice voting is a good idea or a bad idea ... how likely is it that in this July 14 Republican primary for Congress you will indicate a 2nd choice? Very likely? Likely? Unlikely? Or very unlikely?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Very Likely21%24%18%18%26%22%19%24%20%20%20%26%****20%26%**20%24%22%23%13%27%19%21%22%21%23%20%21%21%
Likely17%16%18%28%12%23%14%16%17%15%18%18%****17%18%**18%19%17%15%22%14%19%18%16%16%21%17%20%15%
Unlikely18%15%21%9%18%19%17%16%18%17%19%19%****18%19%**16%15%20%16%20%17%16%20%17%23%20%17%18%17%
Very Unlikely40%41%38%38%39%32%46%39%40%44%39%33%****41%33%**43%38%39%43%42%36%40%37%42%34%32%42%38%42%
Not Sure4%4%5%6%4%4%4%5%4%4%5%4%****5%4%**3%5%2%3%3%6%6%4%3%6%4%4%4%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
17Ranked-choice voting works this way: Voters mark their 1st choice for a given contest, then may choose but are not required to mark a 2nd choice, a 3rd choice, and so on, down the ballot. When all of the 1st choice votes are counted, if one candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, that candidate wins immediately. If no candidate has 50% of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and officials look at the ballots of those voters who chose the last-place candidate and see if those voters named a 2nd choice. As soon as the 2nd-choice votes are counted, there is an "instant-runoff" between the final two candidates. Do you think that being able to indicate a 2nd choice when you vote in this July 2020 Republican primary is a great idea? A good idea? A bad idea? Or a terrible idea?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Great Idea6%7%5%5%10%4%6%9%5%3%3%15%****3%15%**4%7%3%4%4%9%6%4%7%11%7%5%5%7%
Good Idea11%10%12%22%11%13%8%14%10%7%11%18%****10%18%**10%12%12%11%13%10%13%12%8%11%15%10%15%8%
Bad Idea19%20%18%17%25%15%20%23%18%18%21%15%****20%15%**17%21%19%19%21%17%20%23%15%23%20%19%21%17%
Terrible Idea59%59%60%56%51%62%61%52%62%67%60%49%****63%49%**66%56%64%62%57%60%53%56%67%47%51%62%54%65%
Not Sure4%4%5%0%2%7%4%2%5%5%4%3%****4%3%**3%4%3%4%5%4%7%4%2%9%7%4%6%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
18This year, the Coronavirus, COVID-19, has caused a number of voters to mail their ballot rather than vote in person at the precinct. In future years, if Maine makes it easier for voters to vote by mail, would this be a great idea? A good idea? A bad idea? Or a terrible idea?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Great Idea11%10%12%8%13%9%12%12%10%5%7%28%****6%28%**9%11%7%7%9%14%13%8%13%16%12%10%10%12%
Good Idea14%11%18%17%12%12%16%13%14%4%17%23%****11%23%**11%13%14%12%13%15%14%14%13%19%19%12%14%13%
Bad Idea21%21%21%16%21%22%21%20%21%19%23%19%****21%19%**20%25%21%21%23%19%18%23%22%24%21%21%23%19%
Terrible Idea51%55%46%58%50%53%49%52%50%70%50%27%****59%27%**57%46%56%54%52%48%53%52%47%31%41%55%47%54%
Not Sure4%3%4%2%3%4%3%3%4%3%3%4%****3%4%**2%5%3%5%2%4%3%3%5%10%8%2%6%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
19Maine's Democratic Governor Janet Mills is up for re-election in 2022. If former Republican Governor Paul LePage were on the Republican Primary ballot in 2022, would you definitely vote for LePage as the Republican nominee for Governor? Definitely vote for some other Republican on the Republican primary ballot? Or, would you need to know who all is on the ballot before you could say for certain?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Definitely Vote For LePage71%72%69%76%78%68%68%78%68%84%77%43%****80%43%**70%69%78%77%80%60%70%71%71%64%71%71%76%65%
Definitely Vote For Some Other Republican6%6%7%6%4%6%7%5%7%3%4%14%****4%14%**6%7%3%5%5%8%9%6%4%14%5%6%5%8%
Need To Know Who On Ballot21%21%22%16%16%24%23%16%23%12%18%41%****15%41%**24%22%19%16%14%30%19%21%24%19%21%22%17%26%
Not Sure1%1%2%2%1%1%2%1%2%1%0%2%****1%2%**0%2%0%1%1%2%3%1%1%3%3%1%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
20Let's assume that in the November 2020 general election, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President. Looking ahead 4 years, to 2024, let's say there are only 6 Republicans on the Primary Ballot for President. Which of these 6 Republicans would be your 1st choice to be the Republican Party nominee for President? (Names rotated)
Ted Cruz, US Senator from Texas? Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina? Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States? Marco Rubio, US Senator from Florida? Donald Trump Jr, the son of the President? Or Ivanka Trump, the daughter of the President?
604 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Ted Cruz12%11%14%19%16%12%10%17%11%16%10%12%****13%12%**15%13%12%13%13%11%11%13%12%6%10%13%10%14%
Nikki Haley12%16%9%15%6%14%14%8%14%9%10%24%****10%24%**20%9%12%10%11%15%8%12%16%18%6%13%13%12%
Mike Pence30%27%33%22%21%29%35%21%33%35%32%20%****33%20%**29%41%32%28%33%28%36%30%24%21%38%29%26%33%
Marco Rubio6%6%5%3%7%5%6%6%6%2%5%12%****4%12%**6%5%4%3%4%8%4%4%8%6%5%6%5%6%
Donald Trump Jr.11%11%11%11%19%9%9%17%9%13%13%5%****13%5%**7%13%14%14%12%9%14%13%8%15%8%12%12%10%
Ivanka Trump7%8%6%8%13%8%4%12%6%6%11%3%****9%3%**10%6%6%8%9%5%7%6%10%9%7%7%8%7%
Undecided21%21%22%22%19%21%22%20%22%19%20%25%****19%25%**13%12%20%24%17%23%21%22%22%25%25%20%25%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%33%43%20%1%1%76%20%2%25%19%37%22%36%42%27%40%33%8%16%77%48%52%
 
21 Who would be your 2nd choice? Please select a different candidate than you already have. (Names rotated)
472 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Ted Cruz20%21%18%27%13%21%21%16%21%19%22%15%****21%15%**18%22%22%21%20%18%24%19%18%29%20%19%18%21%
Nikki Haley10%10%11%8%13%8%11%12%10%14%9%8%****11%8%**12%11%9%7%9%13%8%10%12%4%7%11%7%13%
Mike Pence17%21%12%19%16%22%14%17%18%14%18%24%****16%24%**18%18%17%24%16%15%14%18%21%11%10%20%19%16%
Marco Rubio14%12%17%10%13%15%15%12%15%11%15%18%****13%18%**15%13%14%8%14%18%15%14%14%23%16%13%14%14%
Donald Trump Jr.12%13%11%14%18%10%11%17%11%19%11%5%****14%5%**13%10%12%10%13%12%11%12%14%10%22%11%14%11%
Ivanka Trump10%11%8%8%13%8%10%12%9%11%9%7%****10%7%**10%11%11%16%11%5%14%9%7%6%8%11%10%10%
Undecided16%12%22%14%15%16%18%15%17%12%16%24%****14%24%**14%16%14%14%16%18%14%17%14%16%18%15%19%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%6%18%32%44%24%76%34%44%19%1%1%78%19%2%27%21%38%21%38%41%27%40%34%7%15%78%45%55%
 
22 Who would be your 3rd choice? Please select a different candidate than you already have. (Names rotated)
381 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Ted Cruz21%22%18%10%31%19%19%26%19%18%20%26%****19%26%**17%22%22%15%23%22%19%21%22%27%22%20%24%18%
Nikki Haley10%8%13%5%10%6%15%9%11%6%11%15%****9%15%**9%12%10%13%5%14%9%13%8%10%4%11%7%13%
Mike Pence18%18%19%34%24%19%13%27%16%23%18%10%****20%10%**26%15%18%20%20%16%19%18%19%37%16%17%17%20%
Marco Rubio15%15%15%17%10%12%19%12%16%15%14%16%****15%16%**14%13%16%15%13%17%16%15%15%7%17%15%12%17%
Donald Trump Jr.11%13%8%5%13%9%11%12%10%11%12%6%****11%6%**14%10%10%15%13%6%8%12%11%2%6%12%12%10%
Ivanka Trump9%10%7%10%2%12%9%4%10%13%7%6%****10%6%**9%12%10%11%7%9%9%8%9%3%8%10%9%9%
Undecided16%14%19%19%10%22%14%12%18%14%17%20%****16%20%**12%16%14%11%19%16%20%13%17%13%26%14%19%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%57%43%6%19%33%42%25%75%36%44%18%1%1%80%18%1%29%21%38%20%39%41%26%40%34%7%15%78%46%54%
 
23 Who would be your last choice? Please select a different candidate than you already have. (Names rotated)
311 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+IdeologyIdeology Aggregated1st ChoiceEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalBennettBrakeyCraftsHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Ted Cruz12%11%13%21%10%11%13%12%12%11%14%9%****12%9%**12%9%16%19%10%9%9%13%11%11%12%12%12%12%
Nikki Haley17%16%18%12%20%18%15%19%16%19%16%14%****17%14%**13%23%17%17%15%18%17%17%16%12%20%17%14%19%
Mike Pence6%5%7%3%6%2%10%5%7%8%7%2%****7%2%**5%3%8%10%4%6%5%6%7%9%4%6%6%7%
Marco Rubio21%26%14%31%26%22%16%27%19%23%22%17%****22%17%**20%21%21%21%22%20%23%20%20%20%22%21%25%18%
Donald Trump Jr.13%12%15%12%10%18%11%10%14%12%13%16%****13%16%**15%14%11%12%12%14%13%9%18%6%14%14%15%11%
Ivanka Trump17%17%18%17%16%14%21%16%18%14%16%24%****15%24%**18%19%15%12%21%17%17%21%14%24%10%18%16%19%
Undecided14%13%15%3%13%17%14%11%15%14%12%19%****13%19%**16%10%11%10%16%15%17%13%13%18%17%13%13%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%58%42%6%21%31%42%27%73%36%44%17%1%1%80%17%2%31%21%39%22%38%40%26%41%34%8%13%79%46%54%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.