Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20056

In Minnesota, Marriage Amendment Remains Too-Close-to-Call; Romney Creeps Up on Obama, But Is It Enough to Make a Difference?

A constitutional amendment that would define marriage in Minnesota as between 1 man and 1 woman remains today as it was 2 weeks ago, nose-to-nose, too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. 48% of Minnesota likely voters today vote Yes on the marriage amendment, 47% vote No, within the survey's possible sources of error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Yes is up 1 point, No is up 1 point. Yes had led by 1, Yes still leads by 1. Any outcome is possible.

In an election in Minnesota today for President of the United States, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 50% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Obama is flat, Romney is up 3 points. Obama had led by 10, now leads by 7, with 7 days of the campaign remaining. The seesaw among Independent voters continues: In July, Romney led among Independents. In September, Obama led. Two weeks ago, Romney led. Today, the contest is tied, 41% to 41%. Among voters with some college education, there is movement to Romney: 2 weeks ago, Obama led this group by 15 points; today, tied. Among voters age 50+, Obama had led by as much as 13 points, now 6. The gender gap is 10 points: Obama leads among men by 2 points. Obama leads among women by 12 points.

In an election for United States Senator from MN today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger 60% to 29%. Compared to 2 weeks ago, Klobuchar has expanded her lead by 3 points, from a 28-point advantage then to a 31-point advantage today.

Compared to 2 weeks ago, a proposed amendment to the Minnesota constitution that would require voters to present a photo ID is largely unchanged: 55% today vote Yes, 40% vote No.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of MN adults 10/26/12 through 10/28/12. Of the adults, 631 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 574 were judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

574 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Mitt Romney (R)	245	122	123	55	63	79	48	119	126	60	185	159	10	66	161	68	9	49	100	95	57	87	96	133	33	41	38
Barack Obama (D)	289	130	159	83	61	87	57	145	144	76	212	8	200	67	20	156	101	59	101	128	84	118	81	177	33	35	43
Other	21	11	10	3	8	6	4	11	10	3	18	1	3	16	5	12	1	4	9	8	6	8	6	15	4	1	1
Undecided	20	11	9	5	8	4	2	14	6	8	12	1	1	12	3	12	2	3	10	7	6	8	4	13	4	2	0
Total	574	274	300	147	141	176	111	288	286	147	427	170	215	161	189	248	113	114	219	238	153	222	187	339	74	79	82
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	26%	24%	31%	19%	50%	50%	26%	74%	30%	37%	28%	33%	43%	20%	20%	38%	42%	27%	39%	33%	59%	13%	14%	14%

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?

574 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Kurt Bills (R)	165	85	80	39	43	56	27	82	83	40	125	116	7	39	127	32	5	31	66	67	38	58	65	94	22	27	23
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	346	159	187	79	77	109	80	156	190	77	269	43	190	97	47	190	93	64	128	152	89	141	108	211	41	48	47
Other	24	12	13	7	7	7	3	14	10	1	23	3	6	15	8	9	5	6	11	8	8	10	5	15	2	2	6
Undecided	39	19	20	22	13	3	0	35	3	29	9	8	12	10	7	17	10	13	14	12	17	12	9	20	10	2	7
Total	574	274	300	147	141	176	111	288	286	147	427	170	215	161	189	248	113	114	219	238	153	222	187	339	74	79	82
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	26%	24%	31%	19%	50%	50%	26%	74%	30%	37%	28%	33%	43%	20%	20%	38%	42%	27%	39%	33%	59%	13%	14%	14%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?

574 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Health Care	152	66	86	38	29	50	35	67	85	42	110	28	78	38	34	70	41	37	51	63	46	61	42	91	14	21	25
Job Creation	179	93	86	36	45	59	39	81	98	37	143	66	51	55	72	78	20	36	81	61	47	76	53	102	26	21	30
Taxes	74	43	31	21	23	21	9	44	30	24	50	26	24	22	26	31	17	16	23	34	16	21	35	50	10	10	4
Gas Prices	20	12	9	8	5	5	2	13	8	8	13	7	5	6	6	9	3	7	8	5	7	8	5	10	1	4	4
War On Terrorism	22	9	13	6	2	7	6	9	14	5	17	10	10	2	8	7	6	5	12	5	4	11	5	8	5	8	1
Education	43	14	29	16	13	9	6	29	14	8	35	4	29	9	6	22	15	2	13	28	9	18	15	31	8	2	2
Something Else	68	32	36	20	18	21	9	38	30	20	48	25	13	23	31	25	9	6	26	35	15	22	28	39	8	9	12
Not Sure	16	6	10	2	6	4	4	8	8	4	11	4	5	5	6	6	3	5	6	5	8	4	4	6	3	3	3
Total	574	274	300	147	141	176	111	288	286	147	427	170	215	161	189	248	113	114	219	238	153	222	187	339	74	79	82
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	26%	24%	31%	19%	50%	50%	26%	74%	30%	37%	28%	33%	43%	20%	20%	38%	42%	27%	39%	33%	59%	13%	14%	14%

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

574 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	276	143	133	64	59	84	69	122	153	66	210	135	58	74	157	92	15	66	106	102	82	106	82	144	41	48	43
No	268	118	151	72	75	84	38	147	121	71	198	28	150	78	20	143	96	43	100	125	61	103	100	173	32	29	35
Undecided	30	13	17	11	7	7	4	18	12	11	19	8	8	10	12	12	3	5	14	11	10	13	5	22	2	2	4
Total	574	274	300	147	141	176	111	288	286	147	427	170	215	161	189	248	113	114	219	238	153	222	187	339	74	79	82
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	26%	24%	31%	19%	50%	50%	26%	74%	30%	37%	28%	33%	43%	20%	20%	38%	42%	27%	39%	33%	59%	13%	14%	14%

Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"

574 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	314	151	163	80	83	97	55	163	151	85	230	146	59	93	162	115	24	68	129	116	82	124	101	181	43	44	46
No	232	110	122	54	52	75	51	106	126	52	180	18	150	57	20	121	84	42	80	110	63	86	80	140	28	33	31
Undecided	28	13	15	13	6	4	5	19	9	11	17	6	6	12	8	12	6	5	11	12	9	12	6	18	3	2	5
Total	574	274	300	147	141	176	111	288	286	147	427	170	215	161	189	248	113	114	219	238	153	222	187	339	74	79	82
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	26%	24%	31%	19%	50%	50%	26%	74%	30%	37%	28%	33%	43%	20%	20%	38%	42%	27%	39%	33%	59%	13%	14%	14%

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?

574 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Republican	229	116	113	54	57	74	45	111	119	56	174	161	7	55	159	57	7	46	94	88	54	81	89	125	31	40	33
DFL	259	111	148	66	53	81	59	119	140	62	197	4	197	50	16	136	97	53	92	113	74	108	72	157	31	32	39
Independence Party	49	29	20	20	15	8	5	35	13	17	31	1	6	37	9	32	4	8	20	21	15	22	10	28	11	4	7
Other	33	16	16	7	15	9	1	22	10	12	21	2	4	19	3	19	5	6	11	15	9	10	14	26	1	2	4
Undecided	4	1	3	0	1	3	1	1	4	0	4	1	1	1	1	3	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	3	1	1	0
Total	574	274	300	147	141	176	111	288	286	147	427	170	215	161	189	248	113	114	219	238	153	222	187	339	74	79	82
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	26%	24%	31%	19%	50%	50%	26%	74%	30%	37%	28%	33%	43%	20%	20%	38%	42%	27%	39%	33%	59%	13%	14%	14%