Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25086
 
In Primary to Replace Duncan Hunter in CA-50 Congressional District, Democrat Campa-Najjar Likely to Advance to General Election,
But Will He Be Opposed in November by Republican DeMaio or Republican Issa? Too Close to Call at This Hour, 7 Wks to Super Tuesday:


3 candidates are clustered in the fight to fill the US House of Representatives seat left vacant by the resignation of Republican Duncan Hunter, with any 2 of the 3 possible to advance to a November general election runoff, according to new SurveyUSA polling conducted for KGTV-TV in San Diego and the Union Tribune.

At this hour, 7 weeks till Super Tuesday, when California will count the ballots, the contest stands:

* Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, 26%.
* Republican Darrell Issa, 21%.
* Republican Carl DeMaio, 20%.
* Republican Brian Jones, 12%.
* 6 other candidates with insignificant support.
* 15% of likely primary voters undecided.

The top 2 primary finishers, under California law, advance to a general election, even if the top 2 finishers are from the same political party. Whether Issa or DeMaio advances is critical, since Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, and regardless of which of the 2 Republicans appears on the 11/03/20 general election ballot, he would be the presumed favorite.

Campa-Najjar is backed by seniors, where he leads DeMaio by 12 percentage points, among Latino voters, where he leads Issa by 14 points, and among affluent voters, where he leads both GOP contenders by 7 points.

Among voters who say that "holding the President accountable" is the most important issue in how they will vote in 2020, Campa-Najjar gets 54% of the vote; no other candidate gets more than 9%. Among voters who say that climate change is the most important issue in 2020, Campa-Najjar gets 47% of the vote; no one else gets more than 8%.

Republican Issa is backed by 37% of voters who identify as Republican, 6 points ahead of DeMaio, who is backed by 31% of Republicans. Among voters who identify as "very conservative," Issa outperforms DeMaio 42% to 28%. Among voters who say that border security is the most important issue in 2020, Issa edges DeMaio 42% to 39%. Among voters who say that "rallying around the President" is the most important issue, Issa edges DeMaio 41% to 38%. Issa runs stronger among men than women, and his support is evenly distributed among voters age 35+.

Among voters who support President Donald Trump's immigration policy, Issa and DeMaio run effectively even. Among voters who support the President's environmental policies, Issa and DeMaio run effectively even. Among voters who support the killing of a prominent Iranian general, Issa and DeMaio run effectively even.

So where does DeMaio have an edge? Among self-identified moderates, DeMaio is ever-so-slightly preferred to Issa, 17% to 15%. Among independents, DeMaio is ever-so-slightly preferred to Issa, 20% to 17%. Among voters age 50+, DeMaio edges Issa 26% to 22%. Among voters who do not have a 4-year college degree, DeMaio edges Issa. And among women, DeMaio edges Issa. In each of these cases, the difference between the 2 well-known Republicans is within the survey's theoretical sampling error. Only among so-called fiscal hawks, who says that government spending is the most important issue in 2020, does DeMaio's nominal advantage over Issa extend to 11 points, 28% to 17%. Among voters who say a candidate's character is the most important issue in 2020, DeMaio materially outpaces Issa, 23% to 16%, but both Republicans trail Campa-Najjar in this demographic, who is a runaway leader with 37% support.

About:

SurveyUSA interviewed 700 voting-age individuals in CA-50, 01/09/20 through 01/12/20. Of the voting-age individuals surveyed, 618 are registered to vote in California. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 512 were likely to vote in the 2020 California primary. Of the likely voters, approximately 1/3 told SurveyUSA they were "almost certain" to vote and 2/3 said they were "100% certain" to vote. Among the subset of likely primary voters who are "100% certain" to vote, Campa-Najjar's support jumps to 33%, with Issa and DeMaio tied, 13 points back, at 20% each. 10 weeks before the 2018 congressional mid-term election, incumbent Hunter was charged with misusing $250,000 in campaign funds. He remained on the ballot in 2018 and defeated Campa-Najjar 52% to 48%. Hunter pleaded guilty 12/03/19 to conspiracy to misuse campaign funds and announced his intention to resign from Congress 01/07/20, 2 days before interviewing for this survey began. Hunter's resignation takes effect today, 01/13/20. Though the survey asked registered voters about their views of Hunter (30% of Republicans still view him positively), Hunter's name was not included in the list of Super Tuesday candidates presented to likely primary voters.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
700 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Yes88%90%87%80%81%92%100%80%95%88%91%100%100%94%95%87%96%91%88%93%84%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%69%89%95%77%89%96%94%86%91%88%87%78%100%
No11%10%12%18%17%8%0%18%5%11%8%--5%4%12%4%7%11%7%15%-------------31%9%5%21%10%4%6%13%8%11%12%20%0%
Not Sure1%0%1%3%1%0%0%2%0%1%1%--1%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%-------------1%2%0%2%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%25%22%28%25%47%53%77%19%27%56%38%27%25%13%23%35%13%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%15%45%40%31%28%41%31%67%18%56%25%53%47%
 
Is your impression of Helen Horvath ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive4%6%2%11%4%3%1%7%2%4%4%3%3%4%2%8%9%0%4%7%0%1%13%4%0%3%0%3%2%5%2%5%2%4%9%4%3%7%5%2%4%4%8%5%2%9%1%
Negative8%12%5%11%11%6%7%11%6%8%8%7%7%11%7%5%18%8%6%6%9%12%6%2%10%9%14%0%9%5%10%5%8%6%7%7%10%6%13%7%13%6%9%6%13%8%9%
Neutral15%18%13%9%25%13%16%16%15%15%16%23%13%17%18%11%19%15%17%15%4%9%18%14%22%19%11%19%16%17%18%16%18%16%14%13%18%12%19%15%16%14%20%14%13%11%19%
Unfamiliar72%64%80%70%61%78%76%66%77%73%73%68%76%68%73%76%54%77%73%72%87%77%64%80%68%70%75%77%73%73%71%75%72%74%70%75%70%76%63%76%67%76%64%75%73%73%72%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
Is your impression of Brian Jones ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive17%23%12%15%17%18%20%16%19%18%16%12%19%27%9%12%31%25%14%6%4%27%15%11%22%7%19%20%25%7%24%10%25%5%16%15%21%9%21%21%23%14%15%16%23%14%20%
Negative8%10%6%12%4%7%10%8%8%8%6%5%11%8%6%11%9%4%10%10%10%12%5%14%9%7%5%6%10%9%10%9%10%9%10%7%8%4%9%10%11%6%2%9%9%8%8%
Neutral26%28%24%14%37%27%27%25%27%25%28%34%25%24%32%24%27%29%29%28%11%27%26%16%26%36%20%34%24%33%30%27%24%31%17%25%30%27%28%24%29%24%31%25%25%20%31%
Unfamiliar49%39%58%59%42%48%44%51%46%49%49%50%45%40%53%52%33%43%47%57%75%34%54%59%43%50%56%41%41%51%36%55%41%55%58%53%42%60%42%46%36%55%52%50%43%58%40%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
Is your impression of Carl DeMaio ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive34%36%31%14%27%41%46%20%44%35%28%35%37%53%11%32%50%58%26%8%5%62%13%9%64%12%42%41%59%12%61%16%56%11%28%32%37%26%38%35%44%27%23%31%45%21%45%
Negative22%23%20%13%23%25%24%18%25%21%24%18%27%13%39%18%21%8%22%37%56%8%12%38%18%41%9%32%12%39%12%34%14%42%12%21%25%21%15%25%15%25%17%23%22%16%27%
Neutral26%24%27%26%25%29%23%25%26%25%28%25%26%25%29%23%19%23%34%26%9%27%47%32%15%27%34%16%24%30%21%29%25%25%36%27%21%23%29%25%29%24%30%27%19%29%22%
Unfamiliar19%16%22%48%24%5%7%37%6%19%20%21%10%9%21%27%10%11%18%29%29%3%27%22%2%20%14%11%6%20%6%20%6%22%24%20%17%30%17%15%12%23%29%19%15%34%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
Is your impression of Darrell Issa ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive31%39%24%12%36%36%39%23%38%32%26%31%35%54%7%27%70%50%20%5%0%72%28%9%63%9%30%30%56%10%55%16%53%7%19%33%33%25%37%32%49%22%26%30%39%21%41%
Negative29%26%32%15%23%35%38%19%37%29%30%24%39%15%54%28%5%13%36%53%73%14%21%55%14%61%31%38%18%53%17%48%20%59%24%25%34%27%23%33%19%34%16%33%29%17%40%
Neutral21%20%21%21%20%22%21%20%21%19%27%19%21%19%24%21%16%24%24%17%9%11%33%18%23%17%17%22%17%24%20%20%18%20%29%22%18%21%22%20%16%22%29%20%16%24%18%
Unfamiliar19%15%22%52%22%7%2%38%4%19%17%26%6%12%15%24%8%12%19%25%18%3%19%17%1%13%22%10%9%13%7%17%9%14%27%19%16%28%17%15%16%21%30%17%16%38%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
Is your impression of Ammar Campa-Najjar ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive23%24%23%12%21%25%32%16%29%23%25%12%33%8%49%20%4%7%24%55%65%4%12%42%2%52%19%40%4%50%2%45%6%58%14%20%29%21%22%25%15%26%19%23%24%17%29%
Negative29%32%26%18%24%36%34%21%35%29%25%31%31%48%9%26%53%46%21%7%11%57%21%10%71%10%31%25%52%9%57%12%51%6%18%32%29%21%36%29%39%24%24%28%33%18%38%
Neutral17%19%15%20%24%17%9%22%13%18%11%25%11%18%15%15%14%20%21%10%1%11%27%18%13%14%7%15%17%15%19%14%16%10%27%15%15%13%18%18%15%17%15%18%14%18%15%
Unfamiliar31%26%37%50%31%22%26%41%24%30%39%32%25%26%28%39%29%28%35%27%23%27%41%30%15%25%43%19%27%27%22%29%27%26%41%33%27%45%24%28%31%33%42%30%29%47%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
Is your impression of Duncan Hunter ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive18%22%14%17%26%13%19%21%16%19%15%18%18%30%8%12%40%25%12%4%9%31%34%1%26%7%24%13%28%8%30%9%27%6%16%19%17%19%16%18%15%18%24%15%20%19%17%
Negative47%46%49%22%44%58%60%32%59%48%43%40%60%38%68%42%30%34%56%61%70%37%42%73%42%79%38%60%36%73%37%68%38%78%38%42%55%37%50%52%45%49%25%51%55%31%62%
Neutral22%23%20%22%20%26%18%21%22%20%27%26%18%24%11%30%25%33%17%9%13%28%11%8%30%8%32%21%31%11%28%13%30%9%19%26%18%21%21%22%31%17%21%22%20%24%19%
Unfamiliar13%9%17%40%11%3%3%26%3%13%15%16%4%8%13%16%5%8%15%25%8%4%13%19%3%7%6%6%5%9%5%9%6%7%27%12%11%22%13%9%9%15%29%12%4%26%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
8Is your impression of Marisa Calderon ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive6%10%3%6%16%5%1%11%3%6%8%2%8%5%7%7%6%7%2%16%14%0%7%5%1%10%5%9%4%8%2%7%4%11%4%4%9%7%5%7%6%6%15%4%6%11%2%
Negative11%12%9%11%5%9%17%8%13%10%15%8%13%14%9%11%13%13%10%11%0%27%9%1%15%0%19%5%17%3%18%6%16%6%8%11%11%8%12%12%16%9%3%11%17%5%16%
Neutral20%24%16%16%24%20%21%20%20%19%22%28%17%20%21%17%27%16%24%14%6%15%19%21%28%27%13%20%19%23%20%21%21%20%21%19%20%15%25%19%20%19%24%20%15%18%21%
Unfamiliar63%54%72%68%56%66%61%62%63%65%56%62%63%61%64%65%54%64%64%60%80%58%65%73%56%63%63%66%60%67%60%66%59%63%66%65%59%70%58%62%57%66%58%65%63%66%60%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
9Is your impression of Jose Cortes ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive7%10%4%11%10%6%2%11%4%6%11%5%5%7%6%8%6%2%8%13%15%0%10%7%0%10%6%0%2%9%1%8%2%9%11%5%8%7%10%6%5%7%12%6%5%12%3%
Negative12%16%9%11%8%13%15%10%14%12%12%13%13%19%4%10%30%12%11%0%0%28%9%1%31%2%18%8%23%3%24%5%22%2%8%12%13%10%14%12%16%10%10%10%19%5%18%
Neutral19%18%19%17%30%10%21%23%15%17%24%21%18%14%28%15%16%14%20%29%13%10%29%14%11%29%15%18%13%25%15%23%15%27%27%16%19%17%21%17%18%18%20%20%14%17%20%
Unfamiliar62%56%69%61%52%71%61%57%67%65%53%60%64%60%62%67%49%73%61%57%73%62%52%78%58%58%60%74%63%63%60%64%60%62%54%67%60%65%56%65%61%64%57%64%62%66%59%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
10Is your impression of Lucinda Jahn ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive3%5%2%7%6%1%1%7%1%4%2%1%2%2%5%3%2%3%3%5%9%1%0%1%1%7%2%0%0%3%0%3%0%4%8%2%4%5%6%1%6%1%6%3%2%7%1%
Negative9%12%5%13%3%9%10%8%10%8%10%10%10%12%3%12%21%4%9%6%2%18%12%7%12%2%13%6%14%6%16%5%14%4%4%12%7%9%8%9%12%7%8%8%12%6%12%
Neutral17%20%13%12%31%11%16%21%13%16%19%21%16%21%18%9%24%15%17%19%4%19%21%9%19%20%11%20%17%17%18%18%18%18%15%13%21%14%18%17%17%16%18%16%16%12%20%
Unfamiliar71%62%80%68%60%79%73%64%76%72%69%68%73%65%74%77%53%78%71%70%85%62%68%83%69%70%73%74%69%73%66%74%68%74%73%73%69%72%68%73%65%75%68%73%69%75%67%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
11Is your impression of Henry Ota ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive3%3%2%5%7%0%1%6%0%2%5%1%3%3%0%4%6%1%3%1%0%0%7%1%0%1%0%1%1%3%1%2%2%0%9%2%1%3%4%2%1%2%7%1%2%5%1%
Negative7%11%4%11%9%4%7%10%5%8%3%6%6%9%5%7%10%9%6%6%9%12%4%4%6%6%13%1%8%5%8%5%7%8%8%6%8%7%9%7%12%5%8%6%11%7%7%
Neutral18%23%13%19%21%19%14%20%16%17%19%24%15%20%21%10%27%14%16%19%20%14%21%19%23%19%9%18%16%20%17%19%17%21%13%17%20%16%20%17%19%17%17%17%21%17%19%
Unfamiliar72%63%81%66%63%77%78%64%78%72%74%69%76%68%73%79%56%76%75%73%71%74%68%76%70%74%78%80%75%72%73%74%74%71%70%75%70%75%67%74%68%76%68%76%66%70%74%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
12Is your impression of Nathan Wilkins ... ?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Positive4%4%3%8%7%0%1%8%1%4%4%0%3%3%4%4%7%3%3%5%0%0%6%0%1%2%3%3%2%3%1%2%2%1%8%3%3%4%6%2%3%2%10%2%3%7%1%
Negative7%11%3%11%5%5%7%8%6%7%5%5%9%8%5%9%11%6%6%8%0%16%8%2%4%3%12%7%9%5%11%6%9%7%8%6%7%6%8%8%12%5%5%6%11%4%9%
Neutral17%22%11%10%22%16%19%15%18%16%17%23%14%20%20%11%16%14%19%19%13%16%13%12%21%29%9%16%17%18%19%17%18%16%12%17%18%13%26%13%19%15%23%14%18%12%21%
Unfamiliar73%62%83%71%66%79%72%68%76%73%73%71%74%69%72%76%66%76%72%67%87%67%73%86%74%66%77%75%72%74%69%75%71%75%71%74%71%77%60%78%65%78%63%78%68%76%69%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
13The state of California will hold a primary election on Tuesday, March 3, a date which some call "Super Tuesday." Not everyone has a chance to vote in a primary election. Which best describes you?
618 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Not Interested3%4%2%8%3%1%1%6%1%2%4%0%0%0%3%7%1%1%3%8%1%-------------9%2%2%4%5%1%1%4%5%3%2%5%1%
Not Sure If Time12%13%11%33%11%4%2%23%3%12%13%0%0%10%8%9%10%10%13%8%7%-------------28%11%9%17%17%7%10%12%19%10%13%21%3%
Almost Certain27%25%29%27%30%21%31%29%26%27%24%100%0%30%21%29%30%30%29%23%10%35%24%35%33%27%52%27%35%28%34%31%35%22%16%24%32%26%27%26%31%24%27%30%20%25%29%
100% Certain56%58%54%26%53%71%65%39%69%56%58%0%100%58%68%48%58%56%52%60%83%65%76%65%67%73%48%73%65%72%66%69%65%78%40%59%57%50%48%64%56%56%45%57%62%47%64%
Not Sure2%1%4%5%3%2%1%4%2%3%1%0%0%1%0%7%1%2%4%1%0%-------------8%3%0%3%3%2%2%3%4%1%3%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%23%20%29%28%43%57%76%19%27%56%41%29%25%15%24%35%14%6%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%12%45%43%27%28%45%33%65%18%55%25%47%53%
 
14One of the contests on the California Super Tuesday primary ballot is an election for US House of Representatives from California's 50th Congressional District. Under California law, voters in a primary may choose a candidate from any political party. If the election for Congress were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you for vote for? Democrat Marisa Calderon? Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar? Republican Carl DeMaio? Republican Darrell Issa? Republican Brian Jones? Republican Nathan Wilkins? Peace and Reform Party candidate Jose Cortes? Independent Helen Horvath? Independent Lucinda Jahn? or Independent Henry Ota?
512 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Marisa Calderon (D)3%3%3%4%3%1%4%3%2%3%1%4%2%0%5%4%0%0%5%5%5%0%3%2%1%9%2%3%0%6%0%5%1%5%2%3%3%2%3%3%5%2%2%4%1%1%4%
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)26%26%27%14%23%24%37%19%31%26%32%13%33%4%62%24%3%3%30%68%75%3%30%47%0%54%12%37%1%56%2%47%3%64%31%22%30%25%25%28%12%34%16%29%28%19%32%
Carl DeMaio (R)20%18%21%9%8%27%25%8%26%21%13%20%20%31%5%20%28%33%17%2%0%39%8%4%38%4%28%23%35%4%38%6%35%1%22%24%16%14%25%21%28%16%19%19%23%12%25%
Darrell Issa (R)21%24%18%13%22%22%23%18%22%21%18%22%20%37%3%17%42%35%15%1%0%42%12%8%41%5%17%16%36%6%37%9%34%4%18%22%21%18%25%21%30%16%21%21%22%17%24%
Brian Jones (R)12%15%9%23%15%9%8%19%9%12%15%15%11%18%7%8%22%13%11%4%9%12%17%7%13%8%16%15%17%7%14%10%16%6%15%10%14%14%7%14%14%12%13%10%17%17%9%
Nathan Wilkins (R)1%1%1%4%0%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%3%0%0%0%3%1%0%0%0%0%0%4%1%1%0%2%0%3%0%1%0%1%1%2%1%2%1%0%2%2%1%1%2%1%
Jose Cortes (PF)0%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%3%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%
Helen Horvath (I)1%0%2%3%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%0%0%2%2%0%0%0%6%0%0%0%1%0%2%0%2%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%0%2%1%
Lucinda Jahn (I)0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%-----------0%0%
Henry Ota (I)0%----------------------------------------------
Undecided15%12%17%29%27%13%2%27%8%13%19%21%12%7%15%23%5%12%16%18%10%3%30%23%2%19%22%4%9%17%5%21%10%17%11%18%12%24%12%11%11%16%25%14%8%29%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%49%51%15%20%33%32%35%65%77%19%33%67%44%31%23%16%25%34%14%7%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%8%46%46%25%26%49%35%64%16%58%25%40%60%
 
In choosing a candidate for Congress, which issue is most important to you?
512 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Border Security14%15%14%10%11%15%17%11%16%14%14%15%14%25%1%11%35%24%5%1%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%28%1%29%3%26%1%10%16%13%11%19%13%26%8%5%12%24%9%18%
Gun Rights9%10%9%15%14%7%6%14%6%7%18%7%10%7%11%8%13%6%9%11%5%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%6%14%9%10%6%12%18%11%6%8%9%11%6%11%14%9%9%16%5%
Climate Change10%7%13%17%6%11%8%10%10%11%8%11%9%4%16%14%0%4%13%21%23%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%3%18%1%17%4%20%10%6%13%14%7%9%3%14%17%10%5%13%8%
Rallying Around The President12%13%11%7%8%12%18%7%15%14%4%12%12%25%1%3%24%25%5%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%24%0%26%3%22%0%15%13%10%9%16%12%15%11%12%11%14%5%17%
Holding The President Accountable14%16%12%2%19%13%18%12%15%15%9%12%15%3%33%11%3%1%19%31%22%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%2%28%2%24%3%29%19%13%14%16%15%13%14%14%11%13%19%11%16%
Reproductive Rights2%0%4%4%3%2%1%3%2%2%3%1%3%3%2%2%3%0%3%2%6%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%3%1%4%1%3%2%2%3%1%4%2%2%3%0%2%3%3%2%
Government Spending10%12%9%13%9%11%9%10%10%11%8%16%7%10%6%17%5%13%14%4%16%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%11%9%10%10%13%7%6%10%12%10%8%12%9%11%7%14%6%10%10%
Foreign Policy3%5%2%11%3%1%2%6%2%3%5%6%2%4%0%4%4%5%3%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%3%3%3%3%3%6%3%3%6%6%1%4%2%4%4%2%6%2%
Character Of The Candidate19%20%19%14%24%25%13%19%19%19%21%16%21%14%22%28%8%18%27%15%28%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%18%22%16%21%18%20%13%17%22%15%15%24%20%19%28%18%17%22%17%
Other6%3%8%8%4%4%7%6%6%4%11%4%6%5%8%1%6%5%2%11%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%3%4%6%4%6%1%8%4%10%2%4%1%6%1%7%1%6%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%49%51%15%20%33%32%35%65%77%19%33%67%44%31%23%16%25%34%14%7%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%8%46%46%25%26%49%35%64%16%58%25%40%60%
 
On immigration, do you want your member of Congress to ... ? Support Donald Trump's approach to limiting immigration into the United States? Or fight for compassionate immigration reform that deals realistically with those who are in the USA illegally?
512 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Support Donald Trump's Approach50%52%48%46%39%57%52%42%54%51%46%54%48%84%9%43%91%86%36%2%0%98%32%15%99%6%52%47%100%0%94%16%87%5%57%51%48%43%51%54%71%39%45%48%58%42%55%
Fight For Compassionate Immigration Reform44%44%44%48%52%39%42%50%40%44%46%38%47%12%84%49%8%9%58%85%100%2%68%79%0%88%37%51%0%100%5%75%9%88%41%42%46%50%41%42%24%54%53%44%39%49%40%
Don't Know Enough To Say6%4%8%6%9%4%6%8%5%5%8%8%5%4%7%7%1%5%6%13%0%0%0%7%1%6%11%2%0%0%2%8%3%7%2%7%6%7%8%4%4%7%2%8%3%8%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%49%51%15%20%33%32%35%65%77%19%33%67%44%31%23%16%25%34%14%7%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%8%46%46%25%26%49%35%64%16%58%25%40%60%
 
On the environment, do you want your member of Congress to ... ? Support President Trump's attempts to ease environmental regulations? Or protect the earth, air, and ocean, and fight for policies that do not endanger the planet?
512 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Support Donald Trump's Attempts40%45%36%36%32%43%44%34%44%43%29%42%39%73%5%29%89%66%24%1%0%83%41%6%86%5%37%33%75%4%100%0%70%4%45%43%37%27%45%44%55%33%37%37%50%30%47%
Protect Environment55%51%59%62%60%50%53%60%52%54%59%53%56%25%93%58%8%25%71%99%100%10%58%93%12%95%52%61%18%94%0%100%22%96%55%52%57%70%51%49%38%64%60%59%43%63%50%
Don't Know Enough To Say5%4%6%2%9%7%2%6%4%3%12%5%5%2%2%13%3%10%4%0%0%8%1%1%2%0%11%7%7%1%0%0%8%1%1%5%6%2%4%6%7%3%3%4%7%7%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%49%51%15%20%33%32%35%65%77%19%33%67%44%31%23%16%25%34%14%7%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%8%46%46%25%26%49%35%64%16%58%25%40%60%
 
18Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump's decision to assassinate Iranian General Qasem Soleimani?
512 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueImmigrationEnvironmentAssassination OfEducationIncomeMilitary HHUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicAlmost C100% CerRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibBorder SGun RighClimate RallyingHolding GovernmeCharacteSupport CompassiSupport Protect ApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Approve53%55%51%42%48%61%55%45%58%54%50%57%52%85%11%51%91%83%45%4%5%97%32%21%98%13%67%49%93%11%93%22%100%0%60%54%52%42%58%57%74%42%48%51%62%46%58%
Disapprove36%36%35%36%47%26%38%42%32%35%41%24%41%6%78%35%6%10%38%81%93%1%46%74%1%75%22%37%3%72%3%62%0%100%36%35%36%47%28%35%20%45%46%36%30%38%34%
Not Sure11%8%13%22%5%13%7%12%10%11%9%19%7%9%12%14%3%6%17%15%2%1%22%5%1%13%11%14%3%17%4%16%0%0%4%11%11%11%14%8%6%12%6%13%8%16%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%49%51%15%20%33%32%35%65%77%19%33%67%44%31%23%16%25%34%14%7%14%9%10%12%14%10%19%50%44%40%55%53%36%8%46%46%25%26%49%35%64%16%58%25%40%60%