Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19276
 
California Prop 29 Could Go Either Way; Feinstein Opponent Unknowable Heading Into Final Weekend Before Primary:

With ¼ of primary ballots already cast and 5 days remaining until the deadline for voting, California Proposition 29, The Tobacco Tax for Cancer Research Act, may pass narrowly or may not pass, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Prop 29 is today supported by 42% of primary voters, opposed by 38%. That leaves 20% of primary voters still undecided, and how those final votes are cast will determine the outcome. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Prop 29 leads 52% to 45%. But among those who have not yet voted but promise to do so by the 06/05/12 deadline - the "late deciders" -- Prop 29 is effectively even, 38% in favor, 36% opposed. Young and old voters narrowly support 29. Middle aged voters narrowly oppose. Hispanics and Asians support. Whites and blacks narrowly oppose. Democrats support. Republicans oppose.

In the top-2 primary for U.S. Senate, Dianne Feinstein is assured to advance to a general election, but it remains anyone guess who her opponent will be. 8 Feinstein opponents show up as a blip on the radar screen. 15 other opponents are not even a blip. Among the blips: Elizabeth Emken and Dan Hughes each have 4%, Rick Williams and Al Ramirez each have 3%.

In a hypothetical November matchup between Feinstein and Emken, Feinstein wins.
In a hypothetical November matchup between Feinstein and Hughes, Feinstein wins.

In a general election for President of the United States today, 5 months till election day, Barack Obama carries California by 21 points, defeating Mitt Romney 57% to 36%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,890 CA adults 05/27/12 through 05/29/12. Of the adults, 1,575 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,232 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to cast a ballot in the 06/05/12 Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (24% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. On Proposition 29, there is a dramatic difference in how home-phone and cell-phone respondents vote. Among respondents reachable on a home telephone, Prop 29 is defeated by 5 points, 37% Yes to 42% No. But among respondents not reachable on a home telephone, Prop 29 passes by 36 points, 60% Yes, 26% No, a 41-point difference depending on how the interview was conducted, one of the largest "mode" effects ever observed by SurveyUSA on any election contest or ballot measure.

 
1In the California primary for United States Senate, there are 24 candidates running. Which candidate will you vote for? [candidate names rotated; presented here in ranked order of finish for ease of comprehension]
1232 Likely & Actual Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)42%42%42%29%37%45%59%33%51%43%62%36%44%25%46%48%40%10%65%39%10%45%12%18%43%68%67%50%36%44%31%47%24%53%41%44%39%35%40%43%50%
Elizabeth Emken (R)4%5%4%4%3%5%5%4%5%6%0%3%3%3%5%7%3%10%1%4%9%4%8%7%5%0%0%2%5%5%6%4%7%3%2%4%7%5%3%6%4%
Dan Hughes (R)4%4%3%5%3%3%4%4%3%5%1%3%3%3%4%7%3%10%0%1%7%3%12%5%3%1%0%2%4%4%7%2%6%2%3%4%3%5%4%4%2%
Rick Williams (R)3%2%4%5%2%4%1%3%3%4%3%3%1%4%3%4%3%8%1%0%9%3%7%6%3%1%1%2%4%3%6%2%5%2%1%3%4%4%3%3%2%
Al Ramirez (R)3%3%3%3%4%2%1%4%2%2%0%7%0%3%3%3%3%5%2%0%4%3%9%2%2%1%0%3%4%2%2%3%2%3%3%2%4%4%3%3%2%
Donald Krampe (R)2%2%3%3%1%2%4%2%3%2%0%3%3%5%2%2%2%5%1%0%1%2%3%4%2%3%1%6%2%2%4%2%4%2%3%2%3%3%2%1%2%
Diane Stewart (D)2%2%3%4%1%1%2%3%1%1%4%4%1%5%1%1%2%1%3%3%1%2%0%2%3%1%5%4%2%1%1%2%2%2%3%1%2%2%2%2%2%
David Levitt (D)2%2%1%5%0%1%0%2%1%1%1%2%4%5%1%1%2%0%3%2%1%2%0%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%2%2%2%3%2%1%2%1%1%3%
Gail Lightfoot (L)2%3%0%2%4%0%0%3%0%1%0%4%1%2%2%1%2%1%0%9%6%1%2%1%2%1%1%0%2%2%1%2%2%1%4%1%1%2%2%0%3%
Orly Taitz (R)1%2%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%4%0%0%9%1%4%3%1%0%0%0%1%2%3%1%3%0%1%2%1%2%1%1%1%
Greg Conlon (R)1%2%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%0%0%2%2%1%2%1%3%0%1%5%1%1%3%1%0%0%0%1%2%1%1%2%1%0%1%2%4%1%0%1%
Robert Lauten (R)1%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%0%1%3%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%0%1%1%3%2%0%0%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%
Nachum Shifren (R)1%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%3%0%1%3%1%2%4%1%0%0%0%2%1%0%2%1%1%0%1%2%2%1%1%0%
Dennis Jackson (R)1%2%0%2%2%0%0%2%0%1%0%1%1%3%1%2%1%2%1%1%3%1%4%2%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%2%2%1%0%
John Boruff (R)1%1%1%2%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%2%0%0%2%1%2%1%1%0%0%1%0%2%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%2%1%1%1%
Dirk Allen Konopik (R)1%2%0%3%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%0%6%1%1%1%2%0%2%0%0%2%0%1%0%1%2%
Colleen Fernald (D)1%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%0%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%
Mike Strimling (D)1%1%1%2%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%2%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%
Marsha Feinland (P&F)1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%0%2%0%1%0%0%1%0%2%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%
Don J. Grundmann (AIP)1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%2%1%3%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%2%0%2%0%0%1%1%0%0%2%1%
Oscar Braun (R)0%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%0%
Kabiruddin Karim Ali (P&F)0%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%2%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%
Nak Shah (D)0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%
Rogelio T. Gloria (R)0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Undecided24%21%28%23%30%27%15%27%22%24%22%25%25%24%24%12%28%30%18%33%24%24%26%32%24%18%14%18%28%23%27%23%26%23%28%24%22%19%30%25%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Primary Voters100%50%50%24%27%29%20%51%49%49%6%30%15%20%80%24%76%35%51%14%8%90%10%21%35%20%8%12%33%55%27%68%35%60%24%35%40%21%38%18%23%
 
 
2On Proposition 29, the Tobacco Tax for Cancer Research Act, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
1232 Likely & Actual Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes42%44%39%54%36%35%44%45%38%40%36%42%50%60%37%52%38%28%48%51%33%43%25%26%43%55%69%36%33%48%30%46%35%46%37%39%46%37%37%40%55%
No38%42%35%30%40%43%38%35%41%43%38%37%25%24%42%45%36%56%27%37%60%36%63%53%38%22%16%41%46%33%48%35%46%35%35%41%39%48%36%43%27%
Not Certain20%14%26%16%24%22%18%20%21%18%26%21%25%16%21%3%26%16%25%12%8%21%12%21%19%23%16%24%21%19%21%19%18%19%28%20%15%15%26%17%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Primary Voters100%50%50%24%27%29%20%51%49%49%6%30%15%20%80%24%76%35%51%14%8%90%10%21%35%20%8%12%33%55%27%68%35%60%24%35%40%21%38%18%23%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
1575 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)57%57%58%62%54%56%59%58%57%52%83%60%58%61%56%58%56%16%85%55%28%60%18%25%61%88%94%55%55%60%47%63%37%71%61%59%54%50%58%58%64%
Mitt Romney (R)36%37%35%28%41%38%37%34%38%43%13%34%27%28%38%39%39%81%10%29%69%33%79%70%29%9%3%34%39%34%50%31%57%24%30%35%41%42%35%37%28%
Undecided7%6%8%11%5%6%4%8%5%5%5%6%15%11%6%4%5%3%5%16%3%6%3%5%10%3%3%11%6%6%3%6%6%5%9%6%5%7%7%6%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%29%25%17%58%42%46%6%32%17%24%76%24%76%31%49%17%7%88%9%20%38%20%7%13%34%53%26%68%34%60%27%34%39%21%39%20%21%
 
 
In a general election for US Senate today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Dianne Feinstein and Elizabeth Emken, who would you vote for?
1575 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)50%50%51%45%45%55%61%45%57%49%71%46%55%47%51%58%50%17%75%44%21%54%18%26%50%76%76%56%43%54%44%54%34%61%51%52%47%41%49%51%60%
Elizabeth Emken (R)34%37%32%31%37%37%32%34%35%38%14%36%28%30%36%36%39%72%12%33%67%32%71%61%31%11%9%27%37%34%44%32%52%25%27%33%41%43%34%34%28%
Undecided15%13%17%23%18%8%7%21%8%12%16%18%18%23%13%6%11%12%13%23%12%14%11%13%18%13%15%17%19%12%12%15%14%14%21%15%12%16%17%15%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%29%25%17%58%42%46%6%32%17%24%76%24%76%31%49%17%7%88%9%20%38%20%7%13%34%53%26%68%34%60%27%34%39%21%39%20%21%
 
 
In a general election for US Senate today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Dianne Feinstein and Orly Taitz, who would you vote for?
1575 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)54%55%53%54%47%55%62%51%58%51%69%53%59%54%54%61%54%22%76%51%25%57%21%31%56%75%82%60%48%57%47%57%39%64%56%55%50%44%53%53%66%
Orly Taitz (R)29%32%26%25%33%31%27%29%29%34%15%28%23%23%31%30%32%64%10%24%61%27%65%51%26%11%2%26%31%28%40%26%45%21%23%28%35%38%30%28%20%
Undecided17%13%21%21%20%14%11%20%13%16%16%19%18%23%15%9%14%14%14%25%13%16%14%17%19%14%16%15%20%15%13%17%16%15%21%17%15%18%17%19%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%29%25%17%58%42%46%6%32%17%24%76%24%76%31%49%17%7%88%9%20%38%20%7%13%34%53%26%68%34%60%27%34%39%21%39%20%21%
 
 
In a general election for US Senate today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Dianne Feinstein and Al Ramirez, who would you vote for?
1575 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)52%51%52%50%46%53%62%48%57%50%68%47%60%51%52%60%51%19%75%48%17%55%19%30%52%77%79%62%45%54%43%56%36%62%54%53%48%41%52%52%60%
Al Ramirez (R)32%36%29%30%35%34%29%32%32%33%16%41%20%27%34%31%35%65%14%27%73%29%63%56%30%11%8%26%36%31%46%27%49%23%26%31%39%40%31%34%26%
Undecided16%13%19%20%19%12%9%20%11%17%16%12%21%22%14%9%14%16%11%25%10%15%19%14%18%12%14%12%19%15%11%17%15%15%20%17%13%19%17%13%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%29%25%17%58%42%46%6%32%17%24%76%24%76%31%49%17%7%88%9%20%38%20%7%13%34%53%26%68%34%60%27%34%39%21%39%20%21%
 
 
In a general election for US Senate today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Dianne Feinstein and Dan Hughes, who would you vote for?
1575 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)52%53%51%49%48%53%61%48%57%49%67%50%57%53%51%60%50%20%75%47%27%54%19%28%53%76%78%57%46%54%44%55%35%63%54%52%49%43%54%51%59%
Dan Hughes (R)31%34%28%28%30%35%29%29%33%36%16%30%22%26%32%33%34%64%11%27%58%29%62%56%27%11%5%25%33%30%39%28%46%22%27%28%36%38%28%32%25%
Undecided18%14%21%23%22%12%9%23%11%15%16%20%21%21%17%7%16%16%14%26%16%16%19%17%20%13%17%18%21%16%17%16%20%15%19%20%15%19%18%17%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%29%25%17%58%42%46%6%32%17%24%76%24%76%31%49%17%7%88%9%20%38%20%7%13%34%53%26%68%34%60%27%34%39%21%39%20%21%
 
 
Should same-sex couples be able to share in the legal benefits of marriage, such as the right to inherit property and the right to make medical decisions for one another? Or should the legal benefits of marriage be restricted only to couples consisting of a man and a woman?
1890 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanAlready Voted?Party AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Same-sex Couples62%60%64%67%56%62%64%62%63%66%69%58%58%68%60%64%61%37%75%65%48%64%28%42%62%89%94%66%59%64%35%73%40%78%65%61%61%56%60%64%70%
Man And a Woman31%34%27%25%37%33%30%30%32%30%25%32%33%25%33%32%33%56%20%26%46%30%69%51%28%9%6%28%35%28%57%22%53%19%27%31%34%37%32%31%22%
Not Sure7%6%8%8%8%5%7%8%6%5%7%10%9%7%7%4%6%6%5%9%6%6%3%7%10%2%0%6%6%7%8%5%6%3%8%7%5%8%8%5%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%33%28%24%15%61%39%44%6%33%17%24%76%24%76%31%49%17%7%88%9%19%39%20%7%16%36%48%26%68%33%59%30%34%36%21%39%20%20%