Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18859
 
3 Weeks to 'Winner-Take-All' Florida GOP Primary, Romney Up By 11; Gingrich Preferred Over Santorum As Conservative Alternative:

3 weeks to the Florida GOP Presidential Primary, Mitt Romney is positioned to capture the state's 50 delegates, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

On the eve of the New Hampshire Primary, and before South Carolina votes, Florida sets up: Romney at 36%, Newt Gingrich at 25%, Rick Santorum at 17%, with Ron Paul and others in single digits. Florida's primary is "closed"; only registered Republicans may vote; unlike Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, independents may not vote.

Encouraging signs for Mitt Romney:

* Among evangelicals, Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the evangelical vote.
* Among pro-life voters, Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the pro-life vote.
* Among voters who say same-sex couples should be given "no legal recognition," Romney holds a narrow lead, a direct result of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the "no legal recognition" vote.
* Among moderates (one quarter of likely Florida Republican primary voters), Romney leads 2:1. Among conservatives (half of FL GOP primary voters), Romney leads 3:2. Only among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (one quarter of primary voters) does Santorum nose ahead of Romney, with Gingrich right behind.
* Romney leads in all 5 regions of the state.
* Romney leads among lower-income, middle-income and upper income voters.
* Romney leads among less-educated voters and more-educated voters.
* Romney leads among both men and women.
* Romney leads among both young and old.

* Only among tea-party members (15% of likely primary voters), does Romney finish 3rd, behind Gingrich and Santorum.

Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent poll in Florida, released one month ago, after Herman Cain had dropped out but before interest groups in Iowa and elsewhere began attacking Newt Gingrich, the contest is materially changed. Then, Gingrich led Romney in Florida by 22 points. Today, Gingrich trails Romney by 11, a 33-point swing. Then, prior to a strong finish in Iowa, Santorum in Florida was at 2%. Today, Santorum in Florida is at 17%. Click on the "Triangle T" where you see it, to open interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive.

* Romney's net favorability among Florida GOP Primary voters is Plus 39 (57% favorable, 18% unfavorable).
* Gingrich's net favorability is Plus 30 (51% favorable, 21% unfavorable).
* Santorum's net favorability is Plus 29 (47% favorable, 18% unfavorable).
* Paul's net favorability is Minus 28 (18% favorable, 46% unfavorable).

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. Using voter list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered Florida Republicans who have voted in past primary elections and who identified themselves as being certain to vote in this primary. All interviews conducted 01/08/12, after the 01/07/12 ABC News debate and after the 01/08/12 NBC News debate, but before the 01/10/12 New Hampshire Primary. Interviews conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview. In these results, Mitt Romney does equally well among home-phone and cell-phone respondents. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum do materially worse among cell-phone respondents. Gingrich would trail Romney by 8 points, not 11 points, if cell-phone respondents had not been included. Florida should have 99 "winner take all" delegates at stake, but because Florida jumped the line and moved its primary earlier than had been recommended by the Republican National Committee, the state is penalized and will award 50 instead of 99 delegates. Unlike many other states in 2012, Florida's delegates are not apportioned among the candidates. 1,144 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

 
If the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul? Rick Santorum? Or one of the other Republican candidates?
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeSame Sex MarriageRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNo RecogCivil UnMarriageNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Romney36%36%36%34%34%35%39%34%37%37%36%18%40%29%36%45%36%31%41%31%40%32%45%31%42%33%31%38%42%35%32%35%40%39%
Gingrich25%25%25%7%29%21%29%22%26%16%28%40%22%32%23%23%30%27%22%28%24%28%22%28%22%26%29%23%22%32%28%24%19%27%
Paul7%7%6%17%8%7%4%10%5%7%6%6%7%3%8%6%3%6%7%3%9%5%7%6%5%8%5%8%8%4%10%8%9%0%
Santorum17%19%15%18%12%21%17%14%19%12%19%25%16%24%18%10%17%20%15%19%15%21%11%22%13%18%24%14%11%15%15%17%14%25%
Other5%3%6%2%8%7%3%6%4%3%6%4%5%4%3%5%2%5%6%5%6%4%7%2%6%6%3%8%5%4%3%6%6%4%
Undecided10%9%11%22%10%10%8%14%9%24%5%7%11%8%11%11%12%11%9%14%6%10%7%10%12%9%8%10%12%10%14%11%12%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%19%29%43%27%73%28%72%15%84%28%46%22%14%39%48%45%50%59%39%27%38%35%41%41%12%11%15%34%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeSame Sex MarriageRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNo RecogCivil UnMarriageNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable51%56%45%29%58%46%55%49%51%54%49%68%48%70%51%35%48%52%51%55%48%57%41%55%48%50%57%51%32%51%58%44%45%63%
Unfavorable21%21%22%24%16%26%20%19%22%16%24%5%24%11%18%35%11%22%23%15%27%16%31%14%23%25%17%24%35%26%15%23%28%13%
Neutral24%20%29%41%20%24%24%26%24%25%25%28%24%18%26%28%34%22%23%25%22%23%26%29%21%24%22%24%24%20%25%28%27%17%
Unfamiliar3%3%4%6%6%4%2%6%3%5%3%0%4%0%5%2%6%4%2%4%3%4%2%2%7%1%4%1%9%3%2%4%1%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%19%29%43%27%73%28%72%15%84%28%46%22%14%39%48%45%50%59%39%27%38%35%41%41%12%11%15%34%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Ron Paul ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeSame Sex MarriageRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNo RecogCivil UnMarriageNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable18%21%15%37%24%20%11%28%14%26%15%24%17%17%18%20%10%17%21%13%22%15%21%18%15%21%15%19%25%10%23%18%18%20%
Unfavorable46%47%45%37%38%51%48%38%49%41%48%39%48%49%47%44%46%45%47%48%46%51%39%45%46%48%52%48%33%52%46%44%46%47%
Neutral26%26%26%21%29%24%27%27%26%27%26%28%26%27%26%28%28%26%27%28%25%25%30%28%28%23%25%27%30%35%28%29%23%18%
Unfamiliar9%5%13%4%8%5%13%7%10%6%10%10%9%7%8%8%16%12%5%11%6%9%10%9%11%8%9%6%12%3%3%9%12%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%19%29%43%27%73%28%72%15%84%28%46%22%14%39%48%45%50%59%39%27%38%35%41%41%12%11%15%34%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Rick Santorum ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeSame Sex MarriageRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNo RecogCivil UnMarriageNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable47%53%41%34%44%52%48%41%49%38%51%59%46%64%49%26%42%50%46%51%42%56%32%47%40%53%56%48%18%54%46%46%45%48%
Unfavorable18%17%18%30%18%20%13%22%16%19%17%9%19%10%10%36%12%14%22%11%26%11%28%13%22%17%12%19%36%20%17%13%17%24%
Neutral27%24%30%23%34%19%30%31%26%33%25%24%27%22%31%29%26%27%28%28%26%24%32%29%30%23%24%27%32%18%32%31%30%19%
Unfamiliar8%6%11%13%4%9%9%7%9%10%8%8%8%4%10%8%20%9%4%10%6%8%8%11%8%7%8%5%14%8%6%9%8%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%19%29%43%27%73%28%72%15%84%28%46%22%14%39%48%45%50%59%39%27%38%35%41%41%12%11%15%34%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Mitt Romney ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeSame Sex MarriageRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNo RecogCivil UnMarriageNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable57%59%55%55%53%54%62%54%59%59%56%45%59%52%55%69%57%55%59%51%61%55%59%52%58%59%52%61%56%50%51%57%59%66%
Unfavorable18%19%17%22%16%19%17%18%18%15%19%24%17%24%17%11%20%18%17%19%17%18%19%21%14%20%20%17%19%21%23%20%19%7%
Neutral23%21%25%17%31%24%19%27%21%23%23%31%21%23%26%18%16%25%23%27%20%25%21%26%24%20%27%21%18%26%24%22%21%23%
Unfamiliar2%2%2%6%0%3%2%2%2%3%2%0%2%1%3%2%7%2%1%2%2%3%1%1%4%1%1%1%7%3%1%1%1%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%19%29%43%27%73%28%72%15%84%28%46%22%14%39%48%45%50%59%39%27%38%35%41%41%12%11%15%34%21%19%