Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17489
 
Backed 11:1 By Tea Party Supporters, KY's Rand Paul Has Breathing Room At the Finish, Poised to Keep Bunning's Senate Seat for GOP:

In the election to fill Jim Bunning's Senate seat, Republican Rand Paul is well positioned to defeat Democrat Jack Conway, 5 days until votes are counted, according to SurveyUSA's 5th and final Bluegrass Tracking Poll, conducted for the Louisville Courier Journal and WHAS-TV. Voters who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in prior elections back Paul 2:1. Paul leads 11:1 among Tea Party supporters, 3:2 among men and affluent voters. 30% of Democrats cross-over for Paul. He is above 50% in Western, Eastern and North Central KY, and at 49% in greater Louisville. If Democrats perceive that the Senate race is a forgone conclusion, that may impact other down-ballot contests in and around Jefferson County, where Democrats are in tight fights and need every vote to win.

 
Filtering: 900 adults with home phones were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Of them, 816 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 637 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote and are included here.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rand Paul? Or Democrat Jack Conway?
637 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Paul (R)52%59%46%46%55%54%50%52%52%54%23%****81%30%45%82%32%18%90%6%53%33%51%52%55%67%30%44%54%52%58%53%39%70%28%59%43%48%58%51%49%53%58%
Conway (D)43%39%48%47%40%43%46%42%44%42%75%****14%66%51%14%65%75%8%91%40%56%44%43%43%32%61%49%41%43%38%42%57%26%69%37%51%46%39%45%47%42%38%
Undecided4%3%6%7%5%3%4%6%4%5%1%****5%4%5%4%3%6%2%3%7%11%4%5%3%1%9%7%4%4%4%5%4%4%4%4%5%6%3%4%4%5%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%15%30%32%23%45%55%92%5%1%2%41%50%9%44%38%13%42%29%20%10%16%44%40%51%15%33%46%54%55%28%17%60%37%63%34%42%58%24%26%34%16%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.