| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17489 |
|
Backed 11:1 By Tea Party Supporters, KY's Rand Paul Has Breathing Room At the Finish, Poised to Keep Bunning's Senate Seat for GOP:
In the election to fill Jim Bunning's Senate seat, Republican Rand Paul is well positioned to defeat Democrat Jack Conway, 5 days until votes are counted, according to SurveyUSA's 5th and final Bluegrass Tracking Poll, conducted for the Louisville Courier Journal and WHAS-TV. Voters who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in prior elections back Paul 2:1. Paul leads 11:1 among Tea Party supporters, 3:2 among men and affluent voters. 30% of Democrats cross-over for Paul. He is above 50% in Western, Eastern and North Central KY, and at 49% in greater Louisville. If Democrats perceive that the Senate race is a forgone conclusion, that may impact other down-ballot contests in and around Jefferson County, where Democrats are in tight fights and need every vote to win. |
| Filtering: 900 adults with home phones were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Of them, 816 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 637 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote and are included here. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rand Paul? Or Democrat Jack Conway? |
| 637 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Western | Louisvil | North Ce | Eastern | |
| Paul (R) | 52% | 59% | 46% | 46% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 54% | 23% | ** | ** | 81% | 30% | 45% | 82% | 32% | 18% | 90% | 6% | 53% | 33% | 51% | 52% | 55% | 67% | 30% | 44% | 54% | 52% | 58% | 53% | 39% | 70% | 28% | 59% | 43% | 48% | 58% | 51% | 49% | 53% | 58% |
| Conway (D) | 43% | 39% | 48% | 47% | 40% | 43% | 46% | 42% | 44% | 42% | 75% | ** | ** | 14% | 66% | 51% | 14% | 65% | 75% | 8% | 91% | 40% | 56% | 44% | 43% | 43% | 32% | 61% | 49% | 41% | 43% | 38% | 42% | 57% | 26% | 69% | 37% | 51% | 46% | 39% | 45% | 47% | 42% | 38% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 1% | ** | ** | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 15% | 30% | 32% | 23% | 45% | 55% | 92% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 41% | 50% | 9% | 44% | 38% | 13% | 42% | 29% | 20% | 10% | 16% | 44% | 40% | 51% | 15% | 33% | 46% | 54% | 55% | 28% | 17% | 60% | 37% | 63% | 34% | 42% | 58% | 24% | 26% | 34% | 16% |