Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16520
 
7 Republicans Battle For Attention in Oregon Senate Primary: 8 days until votes are counted in statewide Oregon primary elections, well-known names are well-positioned in 3 of 4 contests polled by SurveyUSA exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.

In the Republican primary for Oregon Governor, former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley leads a crowded field, receiving 42% of the vote in an election held today, 05/10/10. Businessman Allen Alley today gets 24%; 7 other candidates run in single digits. Dudley leads by more than 2:1 among men, but edges Alley by only 3 points among women. Alley does not lead among any subset of voters, and trails 3:1 among the 28% of Republican primary voters who say they have already returned their ballots. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Dudley and Alley have both gained ground as the number of undecided voters has fallen from 34% to 14%, but Dudley's 18-point lead today is little changed from his 15-point lead one month ago.

In the Democratic primary for Governor of Oregon, former governor John Kitzhaber dominates a smaller field of candidates, getting 59% today and leading his nearest competitor, Bill Bradbury, former Secretary of State, by 34 points. Bradley gets 25% today, up from 16% one month ago; Kitzhaber is up 4 points over the past month. Bradbury is competitive among the youngest voters and conservative Democrats, and holds a small lead among Hispanics.

In the Democratic primary for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Ron Wyden, first elected in a 1996 special election, easily defeats two opponents, taking 80% of the vote.

Which Republican will face Wyden in November? With 8 days left to return ballots, 43% of voters are undecided, making any outcome possible. Today, Lewis & Clark law professor Jim Huffman gets 20% of the vote; Realtor Tom Stutzman gets 11%. Farmer and truck driver Keith Waldron gets 9%; businesswoman Robin Parker gets 6%; 3 other candidates each get 4% of the vote. Huffman finishes first among both men and women, and leads by more than 2:1 among voters over age 50. Stutzman narrowly edges Huffman among voters age 18-49. Among those who have already returned ballots, Huffman gets 30%, Stutzman 17%. Among those who have not yet returned ballots, Huffman gets 16%, Stutzman 9%. Huffman leads by 5 points in the Portland area, by 14 in the rest of Oregon.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 Oregon adults 05/07/10 through 05/09/10. Of them, 1,850 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 449 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned ballots or be likely to vote in the Republican primary; 633 were determined to have returned ballots or be likely to vote in the Democratic primary. Incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski is term-limited to two consecutive terms and is not running for re-election. Oregon began mailing ballots on April 30; votes will be counted on May 18.
 
If you were filling out your ballot in the Republican Primary for Oregon Governor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Allen Alley? Clark Colvin? William Ames Curtright? Chris Dudley? Bob Forthan? Darren Karr? John Lim? Bill Sizemore? Or Rex Watkins?
449 Likely & Actual GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?IdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Alley24%23%26%14%25%24%29%21%27%24%******19%27%25%26%24%33%18%25%24%23%25%23%24%24%22%25%21%29%
Colvin1%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%******1%0%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%
Curtright1%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%******0%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%
Dudley42%50%29%64%35%38%41%45%40%43%******57%36%42%40%36%41%42%36%44%49%37%49%43%39%34%45%47%34%
Forthan1%1%0%0%2%0%0%2%0%1%******1%0%0%0%6%1%0%0%1%2%1%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%
Karr1%0%2%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%******1%1%1%2%0%0%1%1%2%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%1%
Lim8%7%10%0%9%11%7%6%9%7%******9%8%9%5%7%7%8%11%5%4%10%3%7%10%8%8%6%10%
Sizemore8%8%7%8%9%8%6%8%7%7%******7%8%7%7%10%4%11%6%8%10%7%9%9%6%9%7%8%7%
Watkins1%2%0%0%3%1%1%2%1%1%******0%2%2%0%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%0%1%2%2%1%2%0%
Undecided14%8%24%14%16%15%13%15%14%15%******5%18%12%20%15%13%16%17%13%12%15%14%14%16%22%10%14%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters100%60%40%14%28%30%28%42%58%93%1%1%4%28%72%68%22%6%42%58%51%22%28%64%34%66%30%37%63%60%40%
 
 
If you were filling out your ballot in the Democratic Primary for Oregon Governor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Bill Bradbury? John Kitzhaber? Or Roger Obrist?
633 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?IdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Bradbury25%25%25%38%21%24%22%28%23%23%**47%**30%22%38%20%28%29%21%29%23%26%31%25%29%23%23%28%25%25%
Kitzhaber59%56%61%43%63%59%64%56%61%61%**43%**58%60%37%67%59%60%57%56%62%59%43%62%52%64%59%58%60%57%
Obrist4%6%3%3%6%4%4%5%4%3%**9%**7%2%11%3%3%2%7%6%4%4%11%3%6%3%6%3%4%3%
Undecided12%13%11%15%10%13%10%12%12%12%**1%**5%16%14%9%10%9%15%10%11%12%14%10%13%10%12%11%11%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%44%56%16%26%32%27%42%58%87%1%7%4%38%62%10%43%43%54%46%24%22%54%18%79%46%52%44%56%70%30%
 
 
3If you were filling out your ballot in the Republican Primary for United States Senate today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) G. Shane Dinkel? Jim Huffman? Loren Later? Robin Parker? Tom Stutzman? Keith Waldron? Or Walter Woodland?
449 Likely & Actual GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?IdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Dinkel4%5%2%0%5%6%2%4%4%4%******7%3%4%3%0%3%5%4%0%6%5%3%3%7%6%3%2%6%
Huffman20%22%17%8%16%24%24%13%24%20%******30%16%21%16%19%23%17%21%16%21%19%22%20%20%17%22%17%24%
Later4%6%2%5%4%5%3%4%4%4%******5%4%4%2%15%5%4%3%7%4%6%2%5%3%5%4%5%3%
Parker6%6%5%8%6%6%4%6%5%6%******8%5%5%3%20%6%6%6%7%4%5%7%6%6%6%6%7%4%
Stutzman11%15%6%28%9%8%9%15%8%11%******17%9%12%8%8%9%13%8%15%14%12%8%12%8%9%12%12%9%
Waldron9%9%9%12%5%9%11%7%10%9%******11%8%8%10%10%8%9%11%9%3%7%11%8%9%8%9%8%10%
Woodland4%5%2%8%3%3%2%5%3%4%******8%2%4%4%1%4%3%2%4%8%3%6%5%1%2%5%4%3%
Undecided43%33%57%31%52%38%45%45%41%43%******14%54%41%54%27%42%43%45%41%40%44%41%40%45%46%40%45%39%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters100%60%40%14%28%30%28%42%58%93%1%1%4%28%72%68%22%6%42%58%51%22%28%64%34%66%30%37%63%60%40%
 
 
4If you were filling out your ballot in the Democratic Primary for United States Senate today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Ron Wyden? Pavel Goberman? Or Loren Hooker?
633 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?IdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Wyden80%76%84%62%75%87%87%70%87%84%**39%**80%80%56%85%83%85%76%86%76%81%65%85%75%87%81%81%80%80%
Goberman4%5%2%2%6%4%2%5%3%3%**13%**5%3%11%3%3%2%5%4%2%4%10%2%6%2%4%3%3%4%
Hooker9%10%8%27%6%4%5%14%5%6%**39%**11%7%25%7%6%6%12%7%15%7%18%7%12%6%9%9%9%7%
Undecided8%9%6%9%12%5%6%11%5%8%**9%**3%10%8%5%8%6%7%4%8%7%7%5%7%5%6%7%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%44%56%16%26%32%27%42%58%87%1%7%4%38%62%10%43%43%54%46%24%22%54%18%79%46%52%44%56%70%30%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.