Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16010
Is There Late Movement to Republican Christie in NJ? Or is the World Series Affecting Who Pollsters Reach? On Election Eve in New Jersey, with a New York City team and a Philadelphia team in the World Series, Republican Chris Christie may have slight late momentum in his bid to unseat incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WABC-TV. The candidates remain today within the theoretical margin of sampling error, as they have been in each of SurveyUSA's 5 tracking NJ polls. At the wire, Christie 45%, Corzine 42%. Interviews were conducted Friday 10/30/09 through Sunday 11/01/09. On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data.

Christie's advantage among NJ independents grew from 12 points 4 weeks ago to 30 points today. SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graph shows both Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett losing Independent votes to Christie. Those who have already voted favor Corzine. Corzine has votes banked. For Christie to be elected, he needs the voters who talk the Christie talk to walk the Christie walk on Election Day. The smaller the Election Day turnout, the more important Corzine's banked votes are. The larger the Election Day turnout, the more likely the Republicans are to take Trenton. On the other hand: President Obama campaigned for Corzine on Sunday. Most interviews for this survey were completed before TV accounts of the Obama visit were shown, and 100% of interviews were completed before Monday's newspapers were published with photos of Obama and Corzine.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 New Jersey adults 10/30/09 through 11/01/09. Of them, 819 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 582 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before 11/03/09.
If the election for governor were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Chris Christie? Democrat Jon Corzine? Or Independent Chris Daggett?
582 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyBiggest IssueCollege GradIncomeEnthusiastic2008 Vote2005 VoteNFL TeamSpringsteen Fan?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalPropertyJobsEconomyHealth CCorruptiYesNo< $50K$50K - $$100K +No ReserReservatObamaMcCainCorzineForresteGiantsJetsEaglesYesNoNorthernCentral Southern
Christie (R)45%48%41%45%46%45%42%46%43%51%11%44%31%38%46%78%15%55%74%40%14%60%26%25%34%57%44%46%37%45%51%51%46%16%81%20%88%51%44%42%39%51%38%50%48%
Corzine (D)42%38%45%42%38%41%47%40%44%34%79%46%58%50%40%13%72%25%19%45%67%27%65%58%51%30%41%43%52%42%33%41%42%68%10%66%3%37%42%45%47%37%49%35%40%
Daggett (I)10%10%10%11%12%11%7%12%9%11%6%10%8%9%11%7%11%16%4%11%18%10%6%14%12%10%12%7%8%10%12%8%12%13%7%11%9%10%12%12%11%9%10%13%9%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%19%31%26%24%50%50%73%12%9%6%14%86%33%44%22%29%46%20%41%12%21%11%9%60%40%25%40%35%48%48%53%41%53%27%37%9%15%49%47%40%31%29%