| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17469 |
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Outside Spending in MN-01 Does Not Yet Tear Down Walz; Incumbent DFL Candidate Still Positioned to Hold Seat for Democrats:
In an election for US House of Representatives from Minnesota's 1st Congressional District today, 10/27/10, incumbent DFL candidate Tim Walz remains atop Republican challenger Randy Demmer, 50% to 41%, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted for KAAL-TV in Rochester MN. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Walz has extended his lead, from 5 points then to 9 points now. Walz has traction with women, with voters age 50+ and with lower-income voters. Demmer has some momentum among younger voters. Independents break narrowly for the Democrat, one of the few places in the country in 2010 where that is true. In MN-01, the contest for Governor of Minnesota is effectively even, DFL candidate Mark Dayton 42%, Tom Emmer 41%. . Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters with home telephones from Minnesota's 1st Congressional District 10/22/10 through 10/26/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 558 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. |
 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Randy Demmer? DFL candidate Tim Walz? Independence Party candidate Steven Wilson? Or Independent Lars Johnson? |
| 558 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | Vote For Governor | College Grad | Most Important Issue | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Emmer (R | Dayton ( | Horner ( | Yes | No | Economy | Health C | Educatio | Federal | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Randy Demmer (R) | 41% | 46% | 36% | 39% | 52% | 36% | 39% | 48% | 37% | 40% | ** | ** | ** | 80% | 5% | 37% | 74% | 23% | 9% | 83% | 7% | 38% | 35% | 44% | 37% | 45% | 57% | 28% | 31% | 86% | 5% | 26% | 44% | 38% | 40% | 29% | 17% | 72% | 61% | 21% | 45% | 35% | 38% | 43% |
| Tim Walz (DFL) | 50% | 45% | 54% | 49% | 40% | 54% | 52% | 42% | 53% | 51% | ** | ** | ** | 15% | 89% | 45% | 19% | 66% | 86% | 11% | 88% | 47% | 46% | 43% | 53% | 47% | 40% | 56% | 57% | 10% | 91% | 51% | 48% | 51% | 52% | 64% | 71% | 20% | 30% | 71% | 44% | 59% | 50% | 50% |
| Steven Wilson (IP) | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 17% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Lars Johnson (I) | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 10% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 34% | 66% | 95% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 33% | 33% | 30% | 40% | 38% | 17% | 30% | 33% | 24% | 12% | 10% | 50% | 39% | 40% | 14% | 46% | 41% | 42% | 13% | 48% | 52% | 58% | 13% | 5% | 10% | 50% | 47% | 56% | 41% | 38% | 62% |
 | If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate? |
| 558 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | Vote For Governor | College Grad | Most Important Issue | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Emmer (R | Dayton ( | Horner ( | Yes | No | Economy | Health C | Educatio | Federal | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Emmer (R) | 41% | 46% | 36% | 45% | 48% | 36% | 39% | 47% | 37% | 40% | ** | ** | ** | 81% | 5% | 37% | 77% | 20% | 9% | 84% | 6% | 39% | 34% | 44% | 39% | 43% | 59% | 25% | 31% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 42% | 40% | 41% | 32% | 12% | 67% | 62% | 20% | 46% | 33% | 40% | 43% |
| Dayton (DFL) | 42% | 37% | 47% | 42% | 33% | 45% | 45% | 36% | 45% | 43% | ** | ** | ** | 8% | 84% | 35% | 12% | 56% | 80% | 6% | 78% | 38% | 41% | 41% | 44% | 39% | 31% | 43% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 40% | 43% | 43% | 54% | 61% | 13% | 23% | 62% | 36% | 51% | 44% | 40% |
| Horner (IP) | 13% | 14% | 12% | 4% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 13% | ** | ** | ** | 10% | 8% | 21% | 10% | 20% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 9% | 22% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 14% | 12% | 12% | 14% |
| Other | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 10% | 23% | 38% | 28% | 34% | 66% | 95% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 33% | 33% | 30% | 40% | 38% | 17% | 30% | 33% | 24% | 12% | 10% | 50% | 39% | 40% | 14% | 46% | 41% | 42% | 13% | 48% | 52% | 58% | 13% | 5% | 10% | 50% | 47% | 56% | 41% | 38% | 62% |
| 3 | Which one of the following is the most important issue facing the United States? The economy? The environment? The war on terror? Health care? Immigration? Education? The federal deficit? Or some other issue? |
| 520 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | 2010 Enthusiasm Vs Prior | Vote For Governor | College Grad | Most Important Issue | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | More | Less | Same | Emmer (R | Dayton ( | Horner ( | Yes | No | Economy | Health C | Educatio | Federal | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | |
| Economy | 58% | 58% | 57% | 36% | 60% | 63% | 56% | 53% | 60% | 58% | ** | ** | ** | 58% | 61% | 53% | 56% | 62% | 54% | 57% | 60% | 55% | 56% | 58% | 56% | 59% | 58% | 61% | 57% | 57% | 59% | 58% | 53% | 62% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 58% | 56% | 56% | 60% | 56% | 58% |
| Environment | 2% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| War On Terror | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Health Care | 13% | 12% | 14% | 20% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ** | ** | ** | 9% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 24% | 9% | 18% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 17% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Immigration | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% |
| Education | 5% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% |
| Federal Deficit | 10% | 12% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 8% | 9% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | 3% | 13% | 15% | 9% | 2% | 19% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 10% | 16% | 3% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 14% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 11% |
| Other | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | ** | ** | ** | 4% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | ** | ** | ** | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 10% | 23% | 38% | 29% | 33% | 67% | 95% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 33% | 33% | 30% | 40% | 38% | 17% | 30% | 34% | 24% | 11% | 10% | 50% | 40% | 40% | 14% | 46% | 41% | 42% | 13% | 48% | 52% | 58% | 13% | 5% | 10% | 50% | 47% | 56% | 41% | 38% | 62% |