Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19109
 
2 Months to CA Primary, Romney Now 2:1 Atop Santorum; Obama Keeps 55 Electoral Votes No Matter Who GOP Nominates: 2 months to the Republican Primary for President in California, Mitt Romney is comfortably ahead of Rick Santorum and poised for significant delegate capture, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KFSN-TV Fresno and KGTV-TV San Diego.

In a general election matchup between Barack Obama and each of the 4 remaining Republican candidates, Obama is at least 2:1 ahead, and assured, in a hypothetical election today, of capturing the state's 55 electoral college votes and keeping the Golden State blue.

Cell phone and home phone respondents included in this research. 2,440 adults from the state of California were interviewed by SurveyUSA 03/29/12 through 04/02/12. Of the adults 1,995 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 439 were judged to be likely to vote in the 06/05/12 California Republican primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of registered voters), were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Consistent with previous research-on-research conducted by SurveyUSA, cell-phone respondents are more Democrat than are home-phone respondents, as seen in the crosstabs for the head-to-head presidential matchups.

 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul? Rick Santorum? Or one of the other Republican candidates?
439 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Romney44%46%41%30%40%50%55%34%52%47%**40%44%28%49%44%****41%46%37%57%40%32%**48%41%46%40%48%41%51%36%45%48%37%44%49%49%
Gingrich12%12%11%10%12%14%10%11%12%11%**14%10%14%11%12%****18%10%16%9%8%6%**24%12%10%15%9%11%13%16%10%11%19%8%13%7%
Paul12%15%9%27%10%9%4%20%6%10%**12%22%19%10%12%****15%10%13%9%13%23%**8%12%13%12%12%10%15%10%13%12%14%13%6%17%
Santorum23%19%28%27%28%15%23%27%19%23%**23%17%30%20%23%****24%23%28%19%25%8%**18%22%24%29%19%29%14%29%23%20%24%24%25%15%
Other1%1%2%1%0%1%2%1%2%2%**2%0%2%1%1%****0%2%1%0%3%2%**0%2%1%0%2%1%1%3%1%1%0%3%1%1%
Undecided8%7%9%5%11%10%7%7%8%7%**10%8%7%8%8%****1%9%5%5%11%28%**2%11%6%4%10%7%7%5%8%8%6%9%6%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%61%39%25%19%31%26%44%56%61%3%20%16%22%78%100%0%0%19%78%41%31%18%6%0%8%36%57%40%56%55%42%18%38%43%24%36%22%17%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
1995 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)62%59%64%63%67%60%53%65%57%56%85%70%53%69%59%23%88%66%41%64%38%55%66%79%**65%60%62%50%66%42%73%65%63%58%55%63%56%70%
Mitt Romney (R)31%35%27%25%29%33%40%27%36%37%15%22%33%22%34%72%9%23%57%29%55%38%27%12%**26%31%32%43%27%49%22%25%29%36%37%30%36%22%
Undecided8%7%9%12%4%7%6%9%7%7%0%8%14%10%7%6%4%11%2%8%7%7%7%8%**9%9%7%8%7%9%6%10%8%6%8%7%8%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%29%27%27%17%56%44%47%6%30%16%29%71%27%45%11%7%89%17%28%24%21%4%13%37%50%24%71%33%61%26%38%37%22%38%18%22%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
1995 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)64%61%67%67%70%61%54%68%59%59%84%70%60%71%61%24%89%68%43%67%34%60%71%83%**66%62%65%49%70%44%75%66%66%61%58%67%60%68%
Newt Gingrich (R)26%30%22%20%24%29%35%22%32%33%16%18%27%20%29%66%7%21%55%24%55%32%18%10%**22%28%26%41%22%43%18%22%25%30%31%24%31%21%
Undecided10%9%11%13%6%9%10%10%10%8%1%12%13%9%10%10%4%10%2%9%11%8%10%8%**12%10%8%9%9%14%7%12%8%9%11%9%9%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%29%27%27%17%56%44%47%6%30%16%29%71%27%45%11%7%89%17%28%24%21%4%13%37%50%24%71%33%61%26%38%37%22%38%18%22%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
1995 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)63%59%67%64%70%60%53%67%57%56%88%69%58%68%60%21%86%67%38%65%37%55%70%81%**65%61%63%49%68%42%75%64%65%59%57%65%56%68%
Rick Santorum (R)28%33%24%23%24%32%40%23%35%35%11%22%28%22%31%70%10%20%58%26%52%36%22%11%**25%29%29%43%24%47%18%25%27%31%34%27%32%22%
Undecided9%9%10%14%6%8%8%10%8%9%1%9%14%10%9%9%3%13%4%9%11%9%8%8%**10%10%8%8%9%11%7%11%7%10%9%8%11%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%29%27%27%17%56%44%47%6%30%16%29%71%27%45%11%7%89%17%28%24%21%4%13%37%50%24%71%33%61%26%38%37%22%38%18%22%
 
 
In a general election for President today, if the only two candidates on the ballot were Barack Obama and Ron Paul, who would you vote for?
1995 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Barack Obama (D)62%58%65%63%68%59%53%65%57%57%84%70%52%68%59%24%86%63%40%64%39%56%68%75%**65%60%62%50%66%43%72%62%62%62%58%65%55%64%
Ron Paul (R)28%34%22%27%24%30%33%26%31%32%12%22%33%22%31%65%10%24%55%26%49%33%23%17%**22%30%29%40%24%43%21%25%28%30%30%24%35%28%
Undecided10%8%13%10%8%10%14%9%12%11%5%8%15%10%10%11%4%13%5%10%12%11%9%8%**13%10%9%10%10%13%7%13%10%8%11%11%10%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%51%49%29%27%27%17%56%44%47%6%30%16%29%71%27%45%11%7%89%17%28%24%21%4%13%37%50%24%71%33%61%26%38%37%22%38%18%22%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.