Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21209
 
3 Weeks to GA Primary, Perdue and Kingston Battle to Make Runoff and Right to Face Nunn for Senate;
Republican Deal 4 Points Atop Democrat Carter in November General Election Gubernatorial Look-Ahead:

3 Weeks till the 2014 Georgia Primary, clear frontrunners emerge in some high-profile contests but other lower-profile races remain a free-for-all, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. A look ahead to a November Governor's election shows a tight contest.

In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senator today, David Perdue is at 26%, down 3 percentage points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago. Jack Kingston is at 20%, up a nominal 1 point from 5 weeks ago. Karen Handel has momentum, and is at 15% today, up 5 percentage points. Paul Broun is at 13% today, up 2 percentage points. Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson and Art Gardner are further back. A runoff is likely. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.

In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers: Deal 64%, David Pennington.11%, John Barge 10%. These results are largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago.

In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, 9 candidates battle for name recognition and voter share of mind, with any outcome possible. 43% are undecided. The top 5 candidates have between 7% and 10% support levels, just as they did 5 weeks ago. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.

In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents. Nunn has 57% today, up from 48%. Steve Miles is at 13%, up from 11%. Todd Robinson is at 7%, down from 14%. Rad Radulovacki at 5%, unchanged. Nunn is likely to reach the 50% needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff.

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 48% to 23%, largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.

In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 48% to 28%, largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudgens.

In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Alisha Thomas Morgan has 19% today, up from 12%, followed by Valarie Wilson at 16%, down from 17%. Dennis Freeman has 13%, down from 16%. Tarnisha Dent has 10%, up from 9%. A runoff is certain.

6 months until the November General Election , a look at the likely Gubernatorial head-to-head match-up shows Republican Nathan Deal edging Democrat Jason Carter 41% to 37%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt today takes 9% of the vote. Deal leads by 15 points among males; Carter leads by 6 points among females, a 21-point gender gap. Deal leads 2:1 among GA whites; Carter leads 4:1 among GA blacks. Deal holds 79% of the Republican base. Carter holds 71% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Moderates break for Carter by 17 points.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,340 state of GA adults 04/24/14 through 04/27/14. Of the adults, 1,999 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 501 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 435 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. 1,567 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
If the Republican primary for Georgia governor were today, which Republican would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Nathan Deal? John Barge? Or David Pennington?
501 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Nathan Deal64%65%62%62%53%69%76%56%72%68%**33%**61%65%69%**52%75%42%22%59%66%65%64%61%66%70%62%61%
John Barge10%9%10%12%13%8%4%13%6%7%**23%**13%9%9%**13%6%18%15%4%9%12%4%10%14%5%10%13%
David Pennington11%12%9%10%15%7%9%13%8%10%**11%**7%12%8%**15%7%16%37%10%14%9%14%9%10%10%11%11%
Undecided16%14%18%16%18%16%11%17%14%14%**34%**18%15%13%**20%12%25%25%27%11%14%18%21%10%14%17%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%60%40%19%33%27%22%51%49%85%5%7%3%19%81%72%4%22%68%24%5%17%31%52%24%33%43%25%42%33%
 
 
Georgia will also hold a Republican primary for United States Senate. If the Republican primary for United States Senator from Georgia were today, which Republican would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Paul Broun? Art Gardner? Phil Gingrey? Derrick Grayson? Karen Handel? Jack Kingston? Or David Perdue?
501 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Paul Broun13%11%16%8%15%13%13%12%13%14%**0%**7%14%10%**19%15%7%11%10%16%12%12%15%11%11%17%9%
Art Gardner1%1%1%0%3%0%0%2%0%1%**0%**0%1%1%**0%1%1%0%0%0%2%3%0%1%0%0%3%
Phil Gingrey6%6%6%3%2%8%12%3%10%7%**0%**4%6%6%**4%7%4%6%8%8%4%5%7%5%8%9%1%
Derrick Grayson5%6%4%6%10%2%1%9%1%3%**23%**15%3%6%**5%2%13%9%6%4%5%4%3%8%6%3%7%
Karen Handel15%12%20%10%15%19%17%13%18%16%**10%**8%17%17%**11%16%14%19%15%17%15%9%18%18%18%17%12%
Jack Kingston20%22%18%22%18%21%21%20%21%22%**0%**22%20%22%**16%20%20%17%17%17%23%23%15%24%19%10%34%
David Perdue26%30%21%38%21%26%25%27%25%27%**35%**27%26%29%**22%29%18%30%18%30%26%26%25%26%29%26%25%
Undecided13%13%14%12%16%12%11%15%11%12%**32%**16%12%9%**24%11%22%8%26%7%13%17%17%7%10%17%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%60%40%19%33%27%22%51%49%85%5%7%3%19%81%72%4%22%68%24%5%17%31%52%24%33%43%25%42%33%
 
 
Georgia will also hold a Republican primary for State School Superintendent. If the Republican primary for State School Superintendent were today, which Republican would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Allen Fort? Ashley Bell? Kira Willis? Mary Kay Bacallo? Mike Buck? Nancy Jester? Richard Woods? Sharyl Dawes? Or Fitz Johnson?
501 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Allen Fort7%9%4%7%8%7%7%8%7%7%**18%**8%7%7%**7%8%6%0%6%6%9%10%10%4%10%7%5%
Ashley Bell10%11%8%11%11%8%9%11%8%11%**0%**4%11%10%**13%8%14%18%10%11%8%14%11%6%7%10%12%
Kira Willis3%3%4%2%3%3%5%3%4%4%**0%**0%4%4%**3%2%4%7%4%1%4%4%3%2%4%2%4%
Mary Kay Bacallo4%3%7%6%4%5%2%5%4%5%**0%**6%4%5%**3%5%2%9%3%5%5%6%3%6%8%2%5%
Mike Buck7%9%4%10%5%10%4%7%7%7%**16%**14%6%8%**7%7%7%20%4%8%8%6%6%9%9%6%7%
Nancy Jester7%7%6%2%10%5%8%7%6%5%**26%**9%6%7%**6%6%11%1%2%5%9%4%6%9%3%5%12%
Richard Woods9%7%12%14%6%8%9%9%9%9%**0%**9%9%10%**5%9%9%18%8%9%10%6%9%11%9%10%8%
Sharyl Dawes4%4%4%2%3%7%3%2%5%4%**0%**0%4%4%**3%3%5%0%3%5%3%5%3%3%2%6%2%
Fitz Johnson5%5%6%8%3%4%9%5%6%6%**0%**3%6%6%**3%7%1%0%6%8%4%4%7%5%5%6%5%
Undecided43%43%44%38%46%43%45%43%44%44%**40%**47%43%40%**52%45%40%27%53%42%41%42%42%44%43%46%40%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%60%40%19%33%27%22%51%49%85%5%7%3%19%81%72%4%22%68%24%5%17%31%52%24%33%43%25%42%33%
 
 
If the Democratic primary for United States Senator from Georgia were today, which Democrat would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Branko "Rad" Radulovacki? Michelle Nunn? Steen Miles? Or Todd Robinson?
435 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Branko "Rad" Radulovacki5%5%5%7%7%2%5%7%3%7%2%****10%3%0%5%8%3%7%3%5%5%4%4%7%4%3%9%4%
Michelle Nunn57%50%63%40%56%63%74%48%67%69%52%****37%64%37%57%65%61%52%66%49%55%61%53%54%65%61%53%56%
Steen Miles13%18%8%19%9%14%6%14%12%2%17%****14%13%50%12%3%6%17%10%13%9%16%10%14%15%21%9%7%
Todd Robinson7%8%6%14%8%4%3%11%3%7%8%****12%5%5%7%6%3%9%8%14%4%7%8%10%3%5%10%8%
Undecided18%18%18%21%20%17%12%20%15%15%21%****26%15%9%18%18%27%15%13%18%27%12%25%16%13%11%19%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%46%54%27%25%33%15%52%48%32%61%3%3%25%75%5%82%12%13%45%30%19%33%48%35%34%31%40%28%31%
 
 
Georgia will also hold a Democratic primary for Secretary of State. If the Democratic primary for Secretary of State were today, which Democrat would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Doreen Carter? Or Gerald Beckum?
435 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Doreen Carter48%46%50%48%50%47%49%48%47%44%50%****32%53%10%51%48%37%44%61%48%47%48%57%41%45%45%55%45%
Gerald Beckum23%31%16%34%20%19%18%27%19%23%22%****38%18%70%20%21%35%28%13%30%17%25%14%33%25%28%20%20%
Undecided29%23%34%19%30%34%33%24%34%32%28%****30%29%19%29%31%28%28%26%22%36%27%29%27%31%27%25%35%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%46%54%27%25%33%15%52%48%32%61%3%3%25%75%5%82%12%13%45%30%19%33%48%35%34%31%40%28%31%
 
 
Georgia will also hold a Democratic primary for Insurance Commissioner. If the Democratic primary for Insurance Commissioner were today, which Democrat would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Liz Johnson? Or Keith Heard?
435 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Liz Johnson48%43%52%47%51%46%47%49%46%51%46%****51%47%42%50%34%49%49%49%52%45%46%48%46%48%46%47%51%
Keith Heard28%33%23%38%23%25%23%31%24%23%29%****27%28%42%26%31%25%27%29%25%27%30%25%29%31%31%29%23%
Undecided25%24%25%15%25%29%30%20%29%26%25%****22%26%16%24%35%26%24%22%23%28%24%28%25%21%23%24%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%46%54%27%25%33%15%52%48%32%61%3%3%25%75%5%82%12%13%45%30%19%33%48%35%34%31%40%28%31%
 
 
Georgia will also hold a Democratic primary for State School Superintendent. If the Democratic primary for State School Superintendent were today, which Democrat would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Alisha Thomas Morgan? Jurita Mays? Denise Freeman? Rita Robinzine? Tarnisha Dent? Or Valarie Wilson?
435 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Alisha Thomas Morgan19%24%14%19%18%21%15%19%19%17%19%****23%18%44%19%11%18%19%20%19%17%21%18%22%17%22%17%18%
Jurita Mays5%4%7%10%6%2%3%8%2%5%6%****1%7%0%6%4%6%5%6%2%8%3%5%3%7%6%6%4%
Denise Freeman13%18%10%13%9%16%15%11%16%16%13%****11%14%11%13%16%17%15%13%13%8%17%11%20%9%13%18%9%
Rita Robinzine5%6%4%4%7%5%5%6%5%5%6%****3%6%0%4%14%6%6%5%11%5%3%6%2%6%7%5%3%
Tarnisha Dent10%11%9%8%20%7%5%14%7%4%12%****6%12%0%12%4%9%13%6%10%6%14%11%5%17%9%7%15%
Valarie Wilson16%11%21%22%13%14%19%17%16%21%14%****26%13%23%15%24%14%15%22%19%15%17%16%19%15%15%20%15%
Undecided30%25%35%24%26%35%38%25%36%33%30%****30%30%22%31%27%30%28%28%25%41%26%33%29%29%27%27%38%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%46%54%27%25%33%15%52%48%32%61%3%3%25%75%5%82%12%13%45%30%19%33%48%35%34%31%40%28%31%
 
 
If the November election for Georgia Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Nathan Deal, Democrat Jason Carter, and Libertarian Andrew Hunt, who would you vote for?
1567 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KAtlantaNorthwesSouth &
Deal (R)41%47%35%37%42%39%49%40%43%54%15%38%**38%42%79%13%33%72%29%17%37%40%43%39%37%46%36%46%41%
Carter (D)37%32%41%31%38%42%35%35%39%26%67%7%**35%37%7%71%31%12%46%66%37%39%35%36%39%35%44%32%34%
Hunt (L)9%10%8%13%10%6%4%11%6%9%4%29%**8%9%6%3%19%7%11%8%9%6%11%7%10%10%7%11%9%
Undecided13%11%16%18%11%13%11%14%12%12%14%25%**18%12%8%13%16%9%14%9%17%15%11%18%14%8%13%11%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%25%30%28%17%55%45%62%28%5%4%23%77%35%37%26%36%40%16%17%34%50%31%33%36%34%33%33%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.