Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23935
 
2 Weeks Till Early Voting in CA Begins, 3-Way Fight Crystalizes Among 2 Democrats and 1 Republican for Top-2 Primary for Governor;
For Senator, Republican Little Emerges as Feinstein's Likely Challenger; State Split on Sending National Guard Troops to Mexican Border:


As Democrats Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa battle to be Top Dog in California's 06/05/18 Top-2 primary, Republican John Cox is in their rear-view mirror, flashing his high-beams, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, the Union Tribune Newspaper, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Newsom at 21% remains the front-runner in the contest, which is just fluid enough that neither Villaraigosa at 18% nor Cox at 15% can be called a clear #2. All 3 have an opportunity to advance to the 11/06/18 runoff election, though, if Cox and Villaraigosa advance and Newsom is odd-man-out, that would be a stunning upset.

Villaraigosa's support is disproportionately Latino, moderate, lower-income, female, and resides in Greater Los Angeles. Cox is backed by whites, conservatives, and suburban men throughout the state. Newsom has formed a broad, affluent, educated, liberal coalition, anchored in the Bay Area, with equal support in urban, suburban, and rural parts of the state.

84-year-old Democrat Dianne Feinstein, the most senior woman in the United States Senate, remains a shoo-in to advance to the 11/06/18 runoff. Feinstein polls at 39% today and has a tailwind as she approaches the primary finish line. For the first time, there is clarity on her likely November opponent. It is Republican Patrick Little, who today polls at 18% overall, but whose rural coalition is strong enough that he ties Feinstein in California's Central Valley.

Though there are many Democrats on the crowded primary ballot, 63% of Democrats stick with Feinstein, who seeks her 4th full term. She is backed by 57% of liberals, 48% of moderates, 46% of Bay Area residents (where, previously, she was Mayor of San Francisco), 45% of suburban women, and 44% of seniors. Little is backed by 46% of Republicans and 42% of conservatives. His support is disproportionately older, high-school educated, and lower-income.

In the high-profile, in-your-face confrontation between CA Governor Jerry Brown and President Donald Trump about the appropriate use of National Guard troops, California is divided: 30% statewide say CA National Guard troops should be sent to the border to prevent potential immigrants from crossing into America illegally. 36% say that, once deployed, the National Guard should only focus on crime such as gangs and drugs. 27% say the National Guard should not be sent to the Mexican border in the first place.

In the November general election, voters will have a chance to vote on CAL3, which would split the state into 3 autonomous jurisdictions and ask the United States Congress to permit a 51st and 52nd star to be sewn on the American flag. At this hour, voters are 4:1 opposed to CAL3.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 adults from the state of California 04/19/18 through 04/23/18. Of the adults, 916 were registered to vote and were asked the questions about CAL3 and the CA National Guard. Of the registered voters, 520 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 06/05/18 primary and were asked the questions about the primary for Governor and Senator. This research was conducted online.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
1100 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes83%83%83%76%81%87%95%78%90%87%85%79%83%91%93%75%89%86%88%65%83%93%73%86%92%85%83%83%86%71%86%87%80%86%78%87%
No15%15%15%20%18%12%5%19%10%12%15%19%16%8%7%22%11%12%11%32%15%6%24%12%8%15%15%16%12%26%13%11%18%13%20%11%
Not Sure2%2%2%4%1%1%0%3%0%1%0%3%1%1%0%3%1%1%0%3%2%1%3%2%0%1%2%2%2%3%1%2%2%1%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%30%27%27%16%57%43%45%6%33%17%27%37%27%24%43%21%23%36%41%36%34%30%31%68%38%51%11%22%29%22%39%20%19%
 
2California will hold a primary for Governor and United States Senator on Tuesday, June 5th. Not everyone has a chance to vote in a primary. Would you say you are ...
916 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Certain Not To Vote5%7%3%5%8%6%1%6%4%6%6%4%6%7%3%6%6%5%4%6%6%4%5%5%5%7%4%7%3%8%3%3%3%7%4%6%
Unlikely To Vote7%7%8%13%6%5%4%10%5%4%12%10%12%5%6%13%3%7%11%17%7%4%13%5%5%7%8%7%8%10%6%8%6%7%7%10%
Likely To Vote26%24%28%35%35%17%12%35%15%20%28%31%29%22%26%24%22%26%24%28%26%24%28%27%22%27%24%31%22%27%22%22%26%24%26%27%
Certain To Vote57%59%54%39%45%70%82%42%74%65%47%50%48%63%62%49%66%58%58%41%55%65%47%56%67%52%59%48%64%54%66%62%61%56%57%54%
Not Sure5%3%7%9%6%3%1%7%2%5%7%5%5%3%3%8%3%3%4%9%6%3%6%6%2%6%4%7%4%1%3%4%4%6%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%26%28%18%54%46%47%6%31%17%29%41%24%26%44%22%18%36%46%31%35%33%32%67%38%53%10%22%30%21%40%19%20%
 
3If the primary for Governor of California were today and all of these names appeared on the primary ballot, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
520 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Gavin Newsom (D)21%21%21%14%31%19%21%22%20%24%**16%15%2%35%21%2%24%42%9%20%24%21%17%25%15%23%20%21%22%24%19%21%15%16%38%
Antonio Villaraigosa (D)18%15%21%21%20%14%20%20%16%8%**37%14%4%29%17%8%25%18%14%27%13%22%20%14%20%17%22%16%17%13%18%9%30%16%5%
John Chiang (D)9%10%8%7%6%8%15%6%11%5%**9%24%4%13%9%7%10%12%9%4%12%13%9%7%7%10%15%6%7%6%6%8%7%17%6%
Travis Allen (R)10%10%10%7%9%11%12%8%11%14%**6%6%24%1%7%24%6%0%18%11%7%16%7%8%11%10%5%11%19%11%11%17%8%7%7%
John Cox (R)15%18%13%11%12%19%17%11%18%22%**8%11%37%0%14%32%12%1%27%11%16%9%19%17%18%14%12%18%13%21%15%13%17%18%13%
Delaine Eastin (D)1%1%1%4%1%1%0%2%1%1%**2%1%0%2%1%1%0%3%0%1%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%
Amanda Renteria (D)3%2%4%12%1%2%0%6%1%3%**4%2%0%5%4%0%4%6%3%5%2%4%3%2%4%3%3%3%5%2%4%4%2%2%6%
Robert Newman (R)4%6%2%2%8%3%4%5%3%3%**5%6%10%0%4%9%2%1%2%3%5%1%4%7%7%3%6%3%4%4%3%6%3%1%7%
Other1%1%1%1%2%1%0%1%1%1%**1%0%0%1%3%0%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%0%
Undecided17%15%20%21%12%23%11%16%18%19%**12%22%17%14%22%17%16%16%18%16%18%12%19%19%14%18%15%19%12%15%22%20%14%21%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%19%21%35%26%40%60%54%5%27%14%33%45%21%30%45%23%13%35%52%26%35%39%29%71%32%59%9%26%33%23%39%19%19%
 
4If the primary for United States Senator were today, and these names all appeared on your primary ballot, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
520 Likely Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Dianne Feinstein (D)39%35%42%30%43%37%44%37%40%31%**47%39%10%63%34%13%48%57%23%44%39%39%43%35%28%43%37%40%34%34%45%29%39%43%46%
Patrick Little (R)18%18%18%7%11%24%23%9%23%22%**6%30%46%1%9%42%11%1%26%12%19%21%14%19%15%19%18%16%27%15%17%28%17%10%13%
Kevin De Leon (D)8%8%7%8%13%6%6%11%6%6%**14%6%1%14%7%5%5%18%11%5%9%6%6%11%11%7%14%5%2%8%3%3%11%8%7%
Alison Hartson (D)4%6%2%10%6%2%1%8%2%3%**7%2%5%3%6%4%3%6%5%4%4%4%6%3%7%3%5%3%6%5%2%2%5%4%4%
John Melendez (D)4%5%2%12%3%2%0%8%1%2%**6%6%2%5%5%2%4%6%4%6%2%4%3%4%7%2%4%3%5%5%2%4%4%5%3%
Rocky De La Fuente (R)8%10%6%9%8%7%9%8%8%9%**10%3%17%1%11%14%8%0%14%5%9%8%6%10%14%6%6%9%7%11%8%9%8%9%7%
Other2%2%2%6%3%1%1%4%1%2%**2%3%0%2%6%1%3%2%3%2%2%3%2%2%1%3%1%3%3%4%2%2%1%2%5%
Undecided17%15%20%17%13%20%17%15%19%24%**9%11%20%12%23%19%19%11%14%22%15%15%21%16%16%18%14%20%16%18%21%23%15%18%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Primary Voters100%51%49%19%21%35%26%40%60%54%5%27%14%33%45%21%30%45%23%13%35%52%26%35%39%29%71%32%59%9%26%33%23%39%19%19%
 
5In the November general election, California voters will be asked to vote yes or no on an initiative called CAL3. CAL3 would divide the state of California into 3 separate states. CAL3 has nothing to do with Cal-Exit. In CAL3, one state, called Northern California, would include the Bay Area and all of Northern California up to Oregon. A second state, called California, would include most of California's coastal region, from Long Beach on the South to Monterey on the North. And a third state, Southern California, would include the Southern and Inland portions of the state, including San Diego, Riverside, Bakersfield and Fresno. If you were marking your November ballot now, would you vote yes, to divide California into 3 separate states, or would you vote No, to leave California alone? (Map of divided CA shown to respondents)
916 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Vote Yes To Divide17%23%12%25%20%11%11%22%11%19%11%15%19%26%11%20%25%17%12%15%20%16%10%21%20%27%13%17%17%21%24%11%22%15%18%16%
Vote No To Leave CA Alone72%70%75%65%69%78%79%67%79%70%77%77%68%67%81%66%65%73%82%68%71%75%77%70%70%65%76%70%74%72%70%76%68%75%75%70%
Undecided10%8%13%10%11%10%9%11%10%11%12%8%13%8%8%14%10%10%7%17%9%9%13%8%10%8%11%12%10%7%6%12%10%10%7%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%26%28%18%54%46%47%6%31%17%29%41%24%26%44%22%18%36%46%31%35%33%32%67%38%53%10%22%30%21%40%19%20%
 
6There is a debate about whether troops from the California National Guard should be sent to the Mexican border. Should California National Guard troops be sent to the Mexican border to patrol for people attempting to cross the border illegally? Should they be sent with orders to only focus on gang and drug activity? Or should they not be sent to the border at all?
916 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeParent Of Child UrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMenWomenCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Patrol For Those Crossing30%36%24%22%30%37%29%26%34%36%15%22%32%58%9%33%56%27%11%30%31%28%25%33%31%32%28%27%32%28%40%25%33%28%29%29%
Focus On Gangs & Drugs36%34%39%45%35%31%33%40%32%35%28%39%39%31%41%35%29%38%37%45%31%37%43%32%34%38%35%38%34%38%32%36%37%36%38%34%
Should Not Be Sent27%25%29%24%26%25%34%25%29%22%43%35%21%5%44%24%8%28%48%20%31%26%24%28%28%23%29%26%28%24%23%31%24%29%27%26%
Not Sure7%6%9%9%9%7%4%9%6%8%14%5%9%6%6%7%7%7%4%5%7%8%9%7%7%6%8%9%6%10%5%7%6%7%7%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%26%28%18%54%46%47%6%31%17%29%41%24%26%44%22%18%36%46%31%35%33%32%67%38%53%10%22%30%21%40%19%20%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.