Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25182
 
Nationwide, 2 Weeks Till Super Tuesday: Sanders 11 Atop Bloomberg and Biden Who Tie for 2nd Place, Ahead of Buttigieg and Warren;
1 in 3 Likely Democratic Primary Voters Say Party Will Not Know Who Nominee Is Until National Convention in Milwaukee in Mid-July:


Stung by a United States Senate impeachment trial that appeared to veer right, the Democratic Party now veers left, handing Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders popular-vote victories in Iowa and New Hampshire and catapulting him to a momentary 11-point nationwide advantage in SurveyUSA polling conducted on the eve of the Nevada caucuses.

At this hour, with many Americans preoccupied with an existential threat to the rule of law and a concern that checks and balances may have failed, the search for an alternative to President Donald Trump stands this way:

* Bernie Sanders, 29%.
* Mike Bloomberg, 18%.
* Joe Biden, 18%, tied with Bloomberg for 2nd place, but potentially headed in the opposite direction.
* Pete Buttigieg, 12%.
* Elizabeth Warren, 10%.
* Amy Klobuchar, 4%.
* Tom Steyer, 2%.

* Sanders' support is young, male, "very liberal" and concentrated among poor and working-class voters who say they are "just getting by."
* Bloomberg has momentarily built a broad coalition, with concentrations of support among affluent Democrats "able to set aside some for a rainy day."

Compared to 30 days ago, before the Senate voted not to hear witnesses, before the Senate found the President not guilty, before Iran bombed the US Embassy in Iraq, before the Iowa caucus, and before the New Hampshire primary, here is how the search for an alternative to President Donald Trump has progressed:

* Among all likely Democratic primary voters nationwide, Biden had led Sanders by double-digits, now flipped.
* Among seniors, Biden had led Warren 3:1 with 37% support, now trails Bloomberg, 22% Mike, 20% Joe.
* Among African Americans, Biden had 50% support, 32 points atop Sanders, now trails Sanders 31% to 28%.
* Among Latino voters, Biden had been tied with Sanders, now trails Sanders by 25 points, 41% to 16%.
* Among working-class voters, Biden had led Sanders by 11, now trails Sanders by 11.
* Among middle-class voters, Biden had led Sanders by 11, now finishes 3rd behind Sanders and Bloomberg.
* Among Catholics, Biden had led Sanders by 16, now is tied with Bloomberg for 2nd place, a dozen points behind Sanders.
* Among Protestants, Biden had led Sanders and Warren 3:1, now runs behind Bloomberg, who leads Biden 25% to 20%.
* Among high-school educated voters, Biden had led Sanders by 16, now trails Sanders by 7.
* Among lower-income voters, Biden had led Sanders by 14 points, now trails Sanders by 12.
* In military households, Biden had led Sanders 2:1, now is in a 3-way tie with Bloomberg and Sanders.
* Among suburban women, Biden had led Warren by 16, now ties Buttigieg for 3rd behind Sanders at 23% and Bloomberg at 19%.
* Among white working-class Democrats, Sanders leads, not Biden.
* Among white middle-class Democrats, Bloomberg leads, not Biden.

Unchanged from 1 month ago, 33% of likely Democratic primary voters today say the party will not know the name of its nominee until the national convention scheduled in Milwaukee in mid-July. 11% think the nominee will be known in March, 11% think the nominee will be known in April, 15% in May, 14% in June, 33% after Independence Day.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 3,200 adults nationwide 02/13/20 through 02/17/20. All interviews were completed after the results of the New Hampshire primary were known but before caucusing in Nevada had begun. Of the nationwide adults, 2,768 are registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 1,022 as likely to participate in a hypothetical Democratic primary "today." The research was conducted online. Note well: The outcome of the 02/22/20 Nevada caucus and the 02/29/20 South Carolina primary will affect primary voting in the 14 states which report Super Tuesday results 03/03/20. Bloomberg, who is running a disruptive campaign (in the business-school use of disruptive, which is neutral, not critical), may by 03/03/20 be even more of a darling, with a ceiling higher than the 18% he polls at today, or Bloomberg may find that opposition researchers are just warming to the task, and he may see every unflattering word and deed from the past 40 years broadcast and webcast to a thirsty electorate just getting to know him. Biden may be crippled and broke by Super Tuesday, absent a strong performance in neighboring SC. And Sanders will either find that his 29% showing today is a ceiling, above which he cannot climb, or he may find Democrats sufficiently exorcised at the threat that President Trump poses to the rule of law enough that they want the political pendulum to swing as far as possible in the opposite direction. All will snap into crisp focus in 15 days, on Wednesday 03/04/20.
 
In the Democratic primary for President of the United States, how do you vote? (candidate names rotated)
1022 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyClassWhite X ClassPaycheckParty AffiliationIdeology2016 VoteEducationIncomeHomeMarital StatusChild < 18Single ParentReligionAttend Religious ServiceEvangelicalAbortionUnion HHMilitary HHStudent LoanLGBTQ HHUrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMultiracOtherAlmost C100% CerAlready PoorWorkingMCUpper-MCWorkingMiddleFallingGetting Ends MeeRainy DaProsperiRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibTrumpClintonHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwn RentSingleMarriedNo LongeYesNoYesNoProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganRegularlOccasionAlmost NYesNoStronglyStronglyIn The MYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMaleFemaleNortheasMidwestSouthWest
Bernie Sanders 29%34%25%49%31%16%12%40%14%24%31%41%29%****29%28%**36%33%25%21%33%18%32%36%29%20%19%**27%37%**24%25%29%42%24%25%33%33%24%32%29%22%24%37%40%24%21%35%26%40%27%17%30%25%39%19%28%32%25%30%28%31%24%29%28%23%30%38%25%32%28%31%27%28%33%23%28%27%28%32%
Mike Bloomberg18%18%18%10%19%24%22%14%23%19%21%13%15%****21%18%**17%14%20%25%15%21%22%14%18%23%19%**19%14%**20%20%19%11%14%19%17%18%19%14%19%24%21%13%14%20%22%16%20%15%19%25%17%21%13%25%19%16%22%18%23%17%19%10%20%21%18%14%20%15%19%16%20%18%21%19%19%18%22%14%
Joe Biden 18%22%15%15%15%24%20%15%22%15%28%16%20%****16%19%**13%22%17%15%18%15%17%18%20%16%24%**20%11%**25%21%16%12%13%20%26%19%14%20%17%17%19%17%14%21%19%20%17%19%18%20%18%21%15%24%19%16%24%16%18%17%21%25%17%23%17%15%19%10%19%20%17%18%19%15%19%17%21%15%
Pete Buttigieg 12%9%14%8%14%11%17%11%14%15%6%8%20%****11%13%**11%9%15%11%12%17%10%10%11%16%15%**12%11%**15%13%13%5%9%13%13%8%15%11%11%15%13%11%10%14%9%11%13%9%13%14%10%12%13%11%11%13%9%13%9%12%15%13%12%11%12%12%12%13%12%10%13%13%11%15%13%14%9%15%
Elizabeth Warren 10%7%12%9%9%10%10%9%10%10%7%13%8%****7%10%**11%9%10%11%6%11%9%11%9%9%10%**10%8%**3%4%14%18%6%11%4%7%14%10%10%8%9%12%9%9%13%8%11%4%10%9%11%8%10%9%11%9%7%11%5%13%6%7%10%7%10%11%9%15%9%11%9%8%6%11%10%9%10%10%
Amy Klobuchar4%2%5%2%2%2%10%2%6%6%1%0%0%****4%3%**5%3%4%4%5%7%2%4%4%4%2%**3%7%**3%5%3%3%8%4%1%5%3%3%3%5%5%1%3%3%5%2%5%1%4%4%3%3%4%4%2%5%3%4%2%3%5%4%4%4%4%2%4%6%3%2%4%6%2%4%3%5%2%5%
Tom Steyer2%2%2%1%3%3%1%2%2%1%2%3%3%****2%2%**1%1%2%6%2%1%0%1%2%4%1%**2%2%**1%3%1%2%4%2%0%2%3%1%2%4%2%2%1%2%4%3%2%5%2%2%2%4%1%3%3%1%4%1%4%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%1%2%3%1%3%0%1%3%3%
Some Other Democrat1%2%1%1%0%1%2%1%1%1%0%0%0%****1%1%**1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%**0%3%**0%1%0%2%7%0%0%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%0%1%1%1%3%0%2%1%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%2%1%0%0%2%1%0%
Undecided6%4%8%4%6%10%5%5%8%8%5%5%3%****9%6%**6%7%5%6%8%7%6%6%6%6%9%**6%7%**9%8%4%6%14%6%6%6%7%7%6%6%6%6%7%6%6%5%7%6%6%7%8%6%5%6%7%6%5%6%9%5%7%8%6%6%6%6%7%6%6%7%7%3%4%9%8%7%5%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%28%26%25%20%54%46%54%20%17%7%1%1%16%81%4%10%36%43%11%17%24%10%29%28%25%6%2%81%15%3%7%40%34%14%7%76%19%36%45%31%43%26%65%35%34%48%18%34%66%12%88%24%26%20%30%19%29%51%20%78%13%56%29%13%86%16%84%28%72%12%88%33%50%17%20%30%19%22%34%25%
 
When do you think the Democratic party will know who the party's 2020 nominee is?
1022 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyClassWhite X ClassPaycheckParty AffiliationIdeology2016 VoteEducationIncomeHomeMarital StatusChild < 18Single ParentReligionAttend Religious ServiceEvangelicalAbortionUnion HHMilitary HHStudent LoanLGBTQ HHUrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMultiracOtherAlmost C100% CerAlready PoorWorkingMCUpper-MCWorkingMiddleFallingGetting Ends MeeRainy DaProsperiRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibTrumpClintonHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwn RentSingleMarriedNo LongeYesNoYesNoProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganRegularlOccasionAlmost NYesNoStronglyStronglyIn The MYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMaleFemaleNortheasMidwestSouthWest
March11%11%11%14%11%11%7%12%9%9%14%13%11%****7%11%**13%11%11%9%7%9%16%12%10%9%9%**11%10%**8%11%9%13%14%10%11%12%10%13%10%10%10%12%13%11%7%13%10%14%10%9%12%10%12%11%11%11%12%10%12%10%11%14%10%12%11%12%10%12%11%13%9%12%9%9%8%6%14%13%
April11%10%12%12%11%9%11%12%10%11%7%15%13%****10%11%**8%10%11%15%7%12%9%12%12%7%16%**11%9%**11%8%15%9%11%11%7%8%15%9%12%12%10%12%8%12%14%12%10%7%11%10%15%9%10%10%15%9%14%10%12%12%9%12%11%10%11%9%11%11%11%10%11%12%7%13%11%10%11%11%
May15%19%12%19%17%14%12%18%13%19%10%13%12%****15%16%**9%16%17%14%23%18%13%13%16%18%19%**15%18%**16%15%16%18%19%15%17%14%16%13%17%16%17%12%17%16%12%16%15%16%15%14%15%11%20%9%15%18%11%17%14%16%16%18%15%17%15%14%16%17%15%13%17%14%22%14%17%16%16%13%
June14%18%12%15%12%17%13%14%15%15%15%14%14%****18%14%**12%17%14%13%16%15%18%14%14%15%14%**14%16%**10%16%15%14%12%15%14%15%14%13%15%16%16%12%16%14%12%15%15%11%15%17%16%11%14%14%16%14%15%14%15%16%12%13%15%15%14%19%13%21%14%13%15%15%19%13%17%16%14%11%
Not Until Middle Of Convention33%31%34%28%32%31%45%30%37%32%37%25%43%****32%33%**35%29%35%38%31%32%29%33%32%36%36%**32%38%**44%34%31%30%33%33%29%35%33%36%31%33%32%35%31%33%37%29%35%33%33%36%30%34%32%38%29%34%33%33%34%32%35%32%33%36%32%28%35%24%34%35%32%32%32%32%33%34%31%35%
Not Sure15%10%19%12%17%18%13%15%16%14%18%19%7%****18%15%**21%17%14%11%16%15%16%15%17%15%6%**17%9%**11%16%14%16%10%16%22%16%12%17%16%13%15%17%15%15%18%15%15%19%15%14%13%26%12%18%15%14%15%15%13%14%17%12%16%10%16%17%14%16%15%15%15%16%11%18%14%17%14%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%28%26%25%20%54%46%54%20%17%7%1%1%16%81%4%10%36%43%11%17%24%10%29%28%25%6%2%81%15%3%7%40%34%14%7%76%19%36%45%31%43%26%65%35%34%48%18%34%66%12%88%24%26%20%30%19%29%51%20%78%13%56%29%13%86%16%84%28%72%12%88%33%50%17%20%30%19%22%34%25%
 
In an election for President today, who would win? Trump, no matter which Democrat runs against him? The Democrat, no matter which candidate the Democrats nominate? Or would it depend on who the Democrats nominate?
1022 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyClassWhite X ClassPaycheckParty AffiliationIdeology2016 VoteEducationIncomeHomeMarital StatusChild < 18Single ParentReligionAttend Religious ServiceEvangelicalAbortionUnion HHMilitary HHStudent LoanLGBTQ HHUrbanicitySuburbanRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianMultiracOtherAlmost C100% CerAlready PoorWorkingMCUpper-MCWorkingMiddleFallingGetting Ends MeeRainy DaProsperiRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibTrumpClintonHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwn RentSingleMarriedNo LongeYesNoYesNoProtestaCatholicOtherNo OrganRegularlOccasionAlmost NYesNoStronglyStronglyIn The MYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoUrbanSuburbanRuralMaleFemaleNortheasMidwestSouthWest
Trump8%9%6%7%8%9%6%7%8%9%8%5%6%****7%7%**5%8%8%7%8%10%9%5%6%9%15%**7%10%**17%10%5%3%35%6%8%6%9%5%8%11%8%6%8%8%7%9%7%9%7%6%9%12%5%9%8%7%7%8%14%5%9%10%7%8%8%6%8%5%8%7%8%9%10%6%10%9%7%5%
The Democrat43%44%42%44%41%40%47%42%43%40%45%50%44%****28%46%**42%48%39%42%41%37%47%49%40%38%39%**46%29%**25%40%46%54%15%47%44%46%40%47%43%38%42%45%45%42%43%44%43%46%43%40%44%45%43%41%45%43%47%42%41%47%37%38%44%47%42%40%44%46%43%43%43%44%41%44%39%40%46%45%
Depends On Democrat Nominated43%43%43%44%43%43%41%44%42%45%39%39%42%****58%40%**41%38%47%44%46%46%33%39%48%46%42%**41%54%**46%44%44%36%44%41%42%41%45%39%44%45%43%42%40%44%45%40%44%35%44%48%39%35%46%42%42%43%42%43%43%42%45%49%42%42%43%46%42%41%43%44%43%40%43%42%45%47%40%41%
Not Sure7%4%9%5%8%8%5%7%7%6%8%6%7%****7%7%**12%6%5%7%6%7%11%7%6%6%3%**7%7%**11%6%4%7%6%7%6%7%6%8%6%6%7%7%7%7%5%7%6%10%6%6%8%8%6%7%5%7%4%7%2%6%8%4%7%3%7%8%6%7%7%6%7%7%5%8%7%5%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%28%26%25%20%54%46%54%20%17%7%1%1%16%81%4%10%36%43%11%17%24%10%29%28%25%6%2%81%15%3%7%40%34%14%7%76%19%36%45%31%43%26%65%35%34%48%18%34%66%12%88%24%26%20%30%19%29%51%20%78%13%56%29%13%86%16%84%28%72%12%88%33%50%17%20%30%19%22%34%25%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.