Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10542
 
Toss-Up For Open MD US Senate Seat: In an election for U.S. Senator in Maryland today, 10/18/06, Republican Michael Steele and Democrat Ben Cardin tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WMAR-TV Baltimore and WUSA-TV Washington DC. 20 days to the 11/7/06 election, it's Steele 46%, Cardin 46%. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, on 9/20/06, the Democrat Cardin has lost 1 point, the Republican Steele has lost 2. 53% of whites vote for Republican Steele, the same percentage who vote for the Republican Bob Ehrlich in the MD Governor's race. But: Steele, who is black, gets 25% of the black vote, approximately twice the black support that Ehrlich gets. There is no movement among voters age 35 to 49. But, the lead has changed hands among voters 50 to 64, from Cardin up 12 to now Steele up 3. Among voters age 65+, by contrast, Cardin has opened a 14-point lead. Steele leads among Independents by 20 points, up from a 6-point lead 4 weeks ago. 10% of Republicans cross-over to vote Democrat. 19% of Democrats cross-over to vote Republican. Steele leads by 14 points among men. Cardin leads by 13 points among women. 4 weeks ago, there was no Gender Gap in this contest; now, there is a 27-point Gender Gap. A Steele win would greatly improve the Republicans' chances of keeping control of the U.S. Senate in 2007. Steele is Maryland's Lieutenant Governor. Cardin represents Maryland's 3rd CD in the U.S. House of Representatives. Incumbent Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes is retiring after 30 years in office. Competing MD Senate Polls: Five competing pollsters show the Democrat Cardin leading. Rasmussen has Cardin ahead by 9. Public Opinion Strategies has Cardin ahead by 4. Zogby has Cardin ahead by 8. Gallup has Cardin ahead by 15. Mason Dixon has Cardin ahead by 6. To compare SurveyUSA results with these results, go here.
 
Possible Democrat Take-Away in MD Governor Contest: In an election for Governor of Maryland today, 10/18/06, Democrat challenger Martin O'Malley edges Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WMAR-TV Baltimore and WUSA-TV Washington, D.C. O'Malley wins 49% to 43% today. In an identical SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, on 9/20/06, the Democrat O'Malley led by 7 points, today by 6. 80% of Democrats support O'Malley. 85% of Republicans support Ehrlich. Independents favor the incumbent Republican Ehrlich by 9 points. O'Malley wins 3:1 in the City of Baltimore. In the Baltimore suburbs, Ehrlich wins by 10 points. In the rest of MD, which includes the DC suburbs, O'Malley is up by 13 points. O'Malley has been Mayor of Baltimore since 1999. Ehrlich was first elected Governor in 2002. The election is on 11/7/06.
 
Filtering: 900 Maryland adults were interviewed 10/15/06 - 10/17/06. Of them, 803 were registered to vote. Of them, 698 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
 
If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Bob Ehrlich? Democrat Martin O'Malley? Green Party candidate Ed Boyd? Or Populist Party candidate Chris Driscoll?
698 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyIncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproBaltimorBaltimorRest of UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Ehrlich (R)43%51%36%41%45%45%42%53%13%85%16%43%74%43%10%29%40%51%87%18%22%52%39%27%46%54%27%51%42%48%42%
O'Malley (D)49%45%53%46%50%50%54%41%75%11%80%34%21%49%83%65%50%45%9%73%70%42%52%66%48%27%54%43%54%47%54%
Boyd (G)3%2%3%7%1%1%0%3%2%0%1%12%1%3%4%1%5%2%0%4%2%4%1%2%3%0%11%2%1%2%0%
Driscoll (P)1%0%1%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%2%0%0%1%2%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%3%2%0%0%1%0%
Undecided4%2%6%5%5%3%4%2%9%3%3%9%4%4%2%3%5%2%2%5%5%2%7%4%3%17%6%4%4%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%26%33%25%16%67%25%33%51%14%25%47%16%15%37%41%31%63%12%50%38%16%77%6%13%28%24%19%16%
 
 
Maryland voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Michael Steele? Democrat Ben Cardin? Or Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese?
698 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyIncomeBush Job ApprovaRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproBaltimorBaltimorRest of UrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Steele (R)46%54%39%43%49%49%41%53%25%87%19%49%78%43%19%38%44%51%90%22%27%54%41%32%48%60%37%52%46%48%41%
Cardin (D)46%40%52%42%45%46%55%41%64%10%75%29%18%48%73%57%45%45%7%69%65%37%53%61%45%21%43%40%49%46%55%
Zeese (G)3%4%3%9%2%2%0%4%2%1%2%14%1%5%6%1%6%3%1%5%4%5%1%3%4%2%11%4%1%3%0%
Undecided4%3%6%6%4%3%4%2%9%2%4%8%3%5%2%5%5%1%2%5%4%3%5%4%3%17%9%3%4%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%26%33%25%16%67%25%33%51%14%25%47%16%15%37%41%31%63%12%50%38%16%77%6%13%28%24%19%16%