Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16858
KY Senate: Republican Rand Paul Still Narrowly Atop Democrat Jack Conway As Fancy Farm Picnic Nears:

In an election for United States Senator from Kentucky today, 07/30/10, Republican Rand Paul edges Democrat Jack Conway, 51% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 months ago, the contest is essentially unchanged, with Paul flat and Conway down a nominal 2 points. Paul today runs a little stronger among men, a little weaker among women, than he did in SurveyUSA's last poll. Conway may have made up some ground in Western Kentucky, but lost some ground in Eastern Kentucky. 1 in 4 Democrats cross-over to vote Republican. Independents break 3:2 Republican.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 KY adults 07/27/10 through 07/29/10. Of them, 804 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 568 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election for US Senate. Incumbent Republican US Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election. The annual Fancy Farm picnic, traditionally the start of the Kentucky election season, takes place 08/07/10; both Paul and Conway are scheduled to speak at the event.
[candidate names rotated]
If the election for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rand Paul? Or Democrat Jack Conway?
568 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Paul (R)51%57%46%48%54%48%56%52%51%52%******85%25%54%81%32%15%87%6%48%33%54%50%58%49%40%67%28%58%40%44%58%51%50%54%47%
Conway (D)43%38%49%45%44%46%39%44%43%42%******11%69%36%15%63%78%10%91%46%55%42%45%38%46%55%29%68%37%56%52%37%43%45%41%48%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%31%32%21%48%52%93%4%1%2%37%50%12%44%35%14%41%25%22%12%48%52%55%27%18%62%35%63%33%43%57%23%27%34%16%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.