Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24268
 
In CA-50, Republicans Stick By GOP's Duncan Hunter, See Indictment as Politically Motivated, Would Prefer Any Other
Republican to Hunter, But Will Vote for Hunter if He Decides to Continue Push for Re-Election Rather Than Democrat:


77% of likely Republican voters in California's 50th US Congressional District stand by indicted and disgraced Congressman Duncan Hunter, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KGTV-TV in San Diego and the Union-Tribune. 69% of conservatives say charges that Hunter and his wife Margaret mis-appropriated $250,000 in campaign funds and then filed false finance records with the government are politically motivated.

In some respects, voters in Hunter's district greet news of the indictment with a yawn: Among those likely to vote in the 11/06/18 mid-term Congressional election ...

* Hunter leads Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar by 7 points among those who are aware of the criminal investigation.
* Hunter leads by Campa-Najjar by 7 points among those who say they are unaware of the criminal investigation.

At this hour, assuming Hunter both remains on the ballot and continues to pursue re-election, it's Hunter 47%, Campa-Najjar 39%. Should operational machinations in California permit any other Republican to run in Hunter's place, that as-yet unnamed Republican defeats Campa-Najjar by 15 points, 51% to 36%.

62% of district Democrats say Hunter should resign his Congressional seat now. But 64% of Republicans say Hunter should remain in office and seek re-election. Independents split: 37% say Hunter should resign; 37% say Hunter should press ahead.

The youngest voters back Campa-Najjar 2:1. Voters age 35+ back Hunter. Urban voters back Campa-Najjar. Suburban and rural voters back Hunter.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 adults from California's 50th US Congressional District 08/22/18 through 08/26/18. The interviews were conducted in the days immediately after Hunter and his wife Margaret were indicted and charged with using campaign contributions to pay for personal expenses. Stories about the indictment made national news and of course were prominently played locally in Southern California, where Hunter's district is located in portions of San Diego and Riverside counties. Of the adults interviewed, 746 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 539 voters likely to vote in the 11/06/18 election for US Congress. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: This survey was completed during a time of fast-moving and rapidly unfolding news events. As additional revelations about Margaret and Duncan Hunter's lifestyle surface, the election's dynamics may change. Campa-Najjar is a first-time candidate who is the son of Mexican and Arab parents. Thrust suddenly into the national spotlight, he may wilt or he may flower, torquing the numbers you see here.
 
1If the election for United States Representative from California's 50th Congressional District were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Duncan Hunter and Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who would you vote for?
539 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Duncan Hunter (R)47%51%43%25%47%51%50%39%51%47%47%77%8%41%77%33%9%48%41%100%0%84%2%49%50%44%44%44%50%35%49%52%39%51%
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)39%39%39%52%36%34%41%42%38%40%34%7%85%44%6%56%84%41%34%0%100%4%95%40%31%47%38%39%41%41%40%38%37%40%
Undecided13%9%18%23%17%14%9%19%11%12%19%16%7%14%17%11%7%11%25%0%0%11%2%11%19%9%18%17%9%24%11%10%25%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%11%19%29%41%30%70%78%18%44%29%26%43%36%18%84%15%47%39%51%36%9%42%49%20%31%48%17%55%25%30%70%
 
2Duncan Hunter and his wife have been indicted and charged with illegally using campaign funds to pay for personal expenses. Before just now, were you aware? Or unaware? That Hunter and his wife were the subject of a criminal investigation?
746 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Aware76%81%72%52%68%82%91%60%87%78%71%84%73%72%85%77%73%100%0%85%87%87%85%64%70%87%59%78%84%68%76%82%56%90%
Unaware21%18%24%43%30%16%8%36%11%20%29%13%26%27%14%21%26%0%100%13%13%11%15%33%27%12%37%20%14%29%21%17%39%10%
Not Sure2%1%4%5%2%2%1%4%2%3%1%3%1%2%1%2%2%0%0%2%0%2%1%3%3%2%4%2%2%3%3%1%5%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%19%20%25%35%40%60%78%17%43%26%26%38%37%18%76%21%47%39%51%36%12%45%43%24%31%45%21%54%24%39%61%
 
3Do you think the charges against Hunter are politically motivated? Or not?
746 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Are42%45%40%28%41%43%50%35%47%43%41%64%13%41%69%33%12%47%29%81%7%75%8%40%42%43%37%41%46%39%41%48%33%48%
Are Not36%35%37%31%32%38%40%31%39%37%32%16%66%42%14%47%65%41%19%6%82%13%80%36%30%43%31%37%39%38%36%38%28%42%
Not Sure22%20%23%41%27%18%10%34%13%20%26%21%20%18%17%20%23%12%52%12%12%12%12%24%27%15%33%22%15%22%24%14%39%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%19%20%25%35%40%60%78%17%43%26%26%38%37%18%76%21%47%39%51%36%12%45%43%24%31%45%21%54%24%39%61%
 
4What should Hunter do now? Remain in office and continue to run for re-election? Remain in office until the end of his current term and not run for re-election? Or resign his seat now?
746 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Remain In Office / Continue To Run41%49%34%25%36%44%52%31%48%42%42%64%14%37%69%36%6%46%27%87%7%78%9%43%40%43%33%39%47%34%39%51%26%51%
Remain Until End Of Term / Not Run14%13%15%21%13%11%13%17%12%14%14%10%15%19%9%19%12%13%18%4%19%7%17%12%14%14%12%16%13%13%17%10%17%12%
Resign His Seat Now33%29%36%37%33%33%31%35%31%32%33%12%62%37%10%38%70%32%36%2%69%6%68%37%30%35%35%35%31%39%33%28%36%30%
Not Sure12%8%15%17%18%12%5%17%8%12%12%13%9%7%12%7%12%9%19%7%5%9%6%8%16%8%20%11%9%14%11%11%20%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%19%20%25%35%40%60%78%17%43%26%26%38%37%18%76%21%47%39%51%36%12%45%43%24%31%45%21%54%24%39%61%
 
5Do the charges against Hunter make you ... more likely to vote for him? Less likely to vote for him? Or do they make no difference either way?
539 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
More Likely11%13%9%6%16%8%13%12%11%10%19%14%5%13%16%10%4%12%5%22%2%19%3%7%9%14%12%11%11%9%8%19%8%13%
Less Likely42%41%44%60%51%37%37%54%37%42%41%21%69%48%21%56%63%39%63%11%73%19%69%40%43%42%46%42%42%49%44%38%50%39%
No Difference41%42%40%26%27%49%47%27%48%43%35%58%24%34%54%32%30%44%26%64%24%56%27%50%43%39%35%41%44%38%43%40%32%45%
Not Sure5%4%6%8%5%6%3%7%5%5%4%7%1%5%9%2%3%5%6%3%1%6%1%3%6%5%7%6%3%3%5%3%10%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%11%19%29%41%30%70%78%18%44%29%26%43%36%18%84%15%47%39%51%36%9%42%49%20%31%48%17%55%25%30%70%
 
6Under California election law, even if Duncan Hunter were to step down and stop running for re-election, his name likely would still appear on the ballot. If Hunter does step down, but his name still appears on the ballot, who would you vote for?
539 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Duncan Hunter (R)38%41%35%27%33%39%42%31%41%38%41%64%5%32%65%23%8%40%23%77%0%68%2%34%39%37%30%38%41%34%37%44%30%41%
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)42%42%43%55%46%37%41%50%39%42%44%9%86%49%8%59%88%41%52%3%99%7%97%45%36%48%47%40%43%44%44%41%46%41%
Undecided20%17%22%18%21%24%17%20%20%21%15%27%8%19%27%18%4%19%25%19%1%26%0%21%25%15%22%22%17%23%19%16%24%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%11%19%29%41%30%70%78%18%44%29%26%43%36%18%84%15%47%39%51%36%9%42%49%20%31%48%17%55%25%30%70%
 
7It is possible that a court order could remove Hunter's name from the ballot. If Hunter's name were removed from the ballot, and he were replaced with another Republican candidate, who would you vote for? The other Republican candidate? Or Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar?
539 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAwareVoteVoteEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHunterCampa-NaAny RepuCampa-NaHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Other Republican Candidate (R)51%54%47%27%55%51%56%45%54%52%47%84%9%44%82%38%9%53%38%91%5%100%0%48%54%49%45%50%54%54%50%53%46%53%
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)36%34%37%42%32%32%38%36%36%35%38%5%82%36%5%50%79%36%35%2%86%0%100%33%30%41%36%37%35%38%36%35%32%37%
Undecided13%11%16%31%12%17%6%19%11%13%16%11%9%21%13%12%12%11%27%7%8%0%0%19%16%10%19%13%11%8%15%12%22%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%52%48%11%19%29%41%30%70%78%18%44%29%26%43%36%18%84%15%47%39%51%36%9%42%49%20%31%48%17%55%25%30%70%