| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12215 |
| In CA GOP Gold Rush, Fred Thompson leaps into 2nd-Place Tie with McCain, 7 Points Behind Giuliani: Eight months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest destabilizes and further tightens, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego. Rudolph Giuliani leads today, but by 7 points, down from a 13-point lead 4 weeks ago, on 5/7/07, and down from a 19-point lead 8 weeks ago, on 4/2/07. Half-In-Half-Out Fred Thompson has doubled his support in the past month, from 11% on 5/7/07 to 21% today. That puts Thompson into a 2nd-place tie with John McCain, whose support is flat month on month, 21% then, 21% now. Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 11%, largely unchanged from 12% last month. Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is 5th, at 8%. Among Conservatives, Thompson is up 12 points month-on month, and has gone from 4th place to 1st. There is volatility among Hispanics, who make up 17% of likely Republican Primary voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model: Giuliani has lost 23 points month-on-month, down from 46% to today 23%. Thompson's support among Hispanics is up 5 fold, from 5% to 24%. Margin of Sampling Error is high for this small subgroup, but the movement is striking nonetheless. SurveyUSA tracking polls from 4/2/07 and 3/6/07 did not explicitly name Fred Thompson, so those results are not shown on the tracking graphs released today. To access that data for comparative purposes, go here. |
| No Movement At All on Democratic Side. Hillary Clinton 18 Points Atop Obama. In a Democratic Primary in California today, 8 months to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains on cruise control, as she has been in 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to March, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco and KGTV-TV San Diego. Here's the rundown, working backwards: Today, Clinton is at 46%, 18 points atop Obama who is at 28%. On 5/7/07, Clinton was at 48%, 21 points atop Obama, who was at 27%. On 4/2/07, Clinton was at 43%, 17 points atop Obama, who was at 26%. On 3/6/07, Clinton was at 44%, 13 points atop Obama who was at 31%. John Edwards has finished in 3rd place in all 4 SurveyUSA CA Democratic Primary tracking polls. Edwards is at 14% today, was at 15% on 5/7/07, was at 17% on 4/2/07, was at 10% on 3/6/07. All interviews for the 06/04/07 release were completed prior to the New Hampshire Democratic candidate debate which began at 7 pm ET on 06/03/07. |
| Filtering: 2,100 state of California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/01/07 through 06/03/07, with all interviews completed before the Democratic candidate debate on 06/03/07. Of them, 1,786 were registered to vote. Of them, 543 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Republican Presidential Primary, 720 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Democratic Presidential Primary. The CA Primary is in 246 days. The general election for President of the United States is in 519 days, on 11/04/08. |
 | If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Newt Gingrich? Or some other Republican? |
| 543 Likely Republican Primary Voters | All | Gender | Race | Ideology | 2004 Vote | Abortion | Global Warming | Stem Cell Resear | Labor Union | Same Sex Marriag | Gun Ownership | Military Draft | Who Is Winning W | Bush in History | Passport Current | Region | Age | <50 / 50+ | Generation | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Bush | Kerry | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Real | Made-up | For | Against | Yes | No | Support | Oppose | Yes | No | Need | No Need | United S | Terroris | One Of A | An Avera | One Of T | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Gen Y | Gen X | Jones | Boomers | Mature | |
| Giuliani | 28% | 26% | 31% | 31% | ** | 23% | 22% | 23% | 32% | 37% | 28% | 25% | 23% | 35% | 34% | 20% | 30% | 26% | 27% | 29% | 31% | 28% | 25% | 32% | 23% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 31% | 23% | 34% | 24% | 27% | 30% | 28% | 25% | 24% | 31% | 28% | 25% | 29% | 27% | 29% | 25% | 31% | 28% | 25% |
| McCain | 21% | 22% | 21% | 21% | ** | 17% | 27% | 16% | 31% | 17% | 21% | 28% | 21% | 22% | 28% | 13% | 23% | 19% | 20% | 22% | 26% | 19% | 20% | 22% | 26% | 20% | 17% | 32% | 15% | 21% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 19% | 21% | 25% | 20% | 30% | 23% | 18% | 16% | 25% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 20% | 19% | 16% |
| Romney | 11% | 12% | 11% | 13% | ** | 5% | 12% | 17% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 15% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 14% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 17% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 13% |
| Fred Thompson | 21% | 23% | 18% | 19% | ** | 24% | 21% | 25% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 17% | 24% | 17% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 22% | 21% | 20% | 18% | 23% | 25% | 16% | 20% | 21% | 23% | 17% | 21% | 20% | 22% | 18% | 23% | 28% | 16% | 20% | 26% | 13% | 21% | 25% | 24% | 18% | 24% | 12% | 23% | 18% | 26% | 24% |
| Gingrich | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | ** | 15% | 6% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 2% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 12% |
| Other | 8% | 7% | 9% | 6% | ** | 16% | 10% | 5% | 6% | 24% | 5% | 23% | 5% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 20% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 7% |
| Undecided | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | ** | 0% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters | 100% | 60% | 40% | 68% | 3% | 17% | 12% | 54% | 34% | 8% | 83% | 10% | 54% | 44% | 56% | 37% | 62% | 30% | 25% | 75% | 23% | 71% | 45% | 52% | 28% | 69% | 64% | 24% | 18% | 59% | 21% | 50% | 48% | 20% | 41% | 22% | 17% | 20% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 53% | 47% | 11% | 20% | 30% | 19% | 20% |
 | If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat? |
| 720 Likely Democratic Primary Voters | All | Gender | Race | Ideology | 2004 Vote | Abortion | Global Warming | Stem Cell Resear | Labor Union | Same Sex Marriag | Gun Ownership | Military Draft | Who Is Winning W | Bush in History | Passport Current | Region | Age | <50 / 50+ | Generation | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7% | Male | Female | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/Ot | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Bush | Kerry | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Real | Made-up | For | Against | Yes | No | Support | Oppose | Yes | No | Need | No Need | United S | Terroris | One Of A | An Avera | One Of T | Yes | No | Central | Greater | Inland E | Bay Area | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Gen Y | Gen X | Jones | Boomers | Mature | |
| Clinton | 46% | 31% | 58% | 41% | 30% | 66% | 39% | 46% | 48% | 45% | 45% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 51% | 46% | 54% | 50% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 50% | 53% | 46% | ** | 51% | 47% | 45% | 51% | 49% | 48% | 47% | 43% | 41% | 53% | 47% | 41% | 48% | 45% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 41% |
| Obama | 28% | 36% | 22% | 27% | 61% | 14% | 38% | 22% | 29% | 29% | 16% | 29% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 23% | 29% | 22% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 20% | 30% | ** | 16% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 24% | 29% | 20% | 33% | 31% | 26% | 27% | 30% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 32% | 25% | 24% | 30% |
| Edwards | 14% | 17% | 12% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 21% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 18% | 12% | 21% | 12% | 16% | 15% | ** | 19% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 12% | 14% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 16% |
| Other | 8% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 9% | 7% | 17% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 14% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 7% | ** | 13% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 16% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 10% |
| Undecided | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ** | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters | 100% | 42% | 58% | 52% | 8% | 26% | 14% | 10% | 46% | 39% | 8% | 78% | 18% | 79% | 91% | 7% | 85% | 9% | 29% | 70% | 60% | 33% | 22% | 77% | 21% | 76% | 21% | 59% | 1% | 16% | 82% | 54% | 44% | 16% | 39% | 15% | 31% | 24% | 30% | 27% | 19% | 54% | 46% | 9% | 27% | 25% | 20% | 19% |