Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17044
WA-03 Open Seat: Ever-So-Slight Movement To Democrat Heck, But GOP Still Poised For Possible Take-Away: In an election for US House of Representatives in Washington State's 3rd Congressional District today, 09/15/10, Republican Jaime Herrera defeats Democrat Denny Heck 52% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, Herrera is down 2 points; Heck is up 2 points. Heck has momentum among women and made inroads among older voters, and has consolidated support among Democrats. Herrera remains ahead among men, voters under age 50, and Independents.

Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, Heck defeated Herrera 31% to 28%. In that primary, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat.

Filtering: 700 registered voters from Washington's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/12/10 through 09/14/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. 38 of Washington's 39 counties vote solely by mail; ballots will be mailed to voters on 10/15/10.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Jaime Herrera? or Democrat Denny Heck?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Jaime Herrera (R)52%58%47%56%56%51%47%56%50%51%****66%86%7%59%90%38%11%90%12%55%39%50%54%69%42%41%79%32%58%39%48%54%
Denny Heck (D)43%38%49%38%40%44%49%40%45%45%****24%9%91%35%7%57%85%7%86%36%50%47%41%27%54%54%17%64%38%57%45%44%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%12%26%39%23%38%62%87%3%3%7%31%29%38%37%42%18%35%33%24%8%46%54%40%25%35%43%54%59%35%35%65%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.