Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15438
 
At the Wire, VA Democratic Governor Primary Snaps into Focus: 24 hours until votes are counted in the Democratic Primary for Governor of Virginia, momentum shifts to Creigh Deeds, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls, Deeds' support has gone from 22% to 26% to 29% to today 42%. Deeds finishes ahead of Terry McAuliffe, whose support has declined in each of the 4 tracking polls and who ends at 30%. Brian Moran, who has treaded water in 4 tracking polls, finishes 3rd, at 21%. To appreciate the extent to which the contest has turned upside down in 6 weeks, study SurveyUSA's exclusive interactive tracking graph.

Here's how the turnaround happened:

In the Washington DC suburbs, Deeds tripled his support, from 12% in April to today 40%. SurveyUSA's detailed analysis of Primary voting in 4 NE VA counties, released just 7 days ago, today looks like ancient history.

Among those who do not own a gun, Deeds tripled his support, from 13% to today 42%.

Among women, Deeds tripled his support, from 13% to today 40%.

Among those who attend religious services regularly, Deeds doubled his support, from 20% to today 44%.

Among college graduates, Deeds went from 21 points behind McAuliffe to 18 points atop McAuliffe.

Among whites, Deeds went from 17 points behind McAuliffe to 19 points atop McAuliffe.

How many Independents show up will determine whether Deeds is the nominee. Among registered Democrats today, McAuliffe and Deeds tie. Among Independents, Deeds suddenly, and decisively, wipes the floor with McAuliffe.

In a general election, Republican Bob McDonnell continues to narrowly defeat all 3 Democrats, as McDonnell has done in each of SurveyUSA's 4 tracking polls.

 
Filtering: 2,000 Virginia adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 06/05/07 through 06/07/09. Of them, 1,685 were registered to vote. Of them, 535 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/09/09 Democratic Primary. Virginia voters do not declare party affiliations, and any registered voter may vote in the primary. In SurveyUSA's final turnout model, 62% of primary voters describe themselves as Democrats, 29% as Independents, 8% as Republicans. All VA registered voters were asked the November general-election hypothetical match-ups.

Effect of weighting on these results: SurveyUSA's unweighted data for this final poll shows Deeds at 44%, McAuliffe at 28%, Moran at 20%. The customary weighing adjustment that SurveyUSA makes to all research, to ensure that data reflect the geography being surveyed, took away 2 points from Deeds, added 2 points to McAuliffe, and added 1 point to Moran. All 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls were conducted identically.

 
If the Democratic Primary for Virginia Governor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Creigh Deeds? Terry McAuliffe? Or Brian Moran?
535 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
Deeds42%44%40%48%35%43%45%40%43%47%32%**28%41%37%52%46%45%30%45%36%44%39%39%45%42%42%42%41%42%39%51%45%36%50%40%39%41%
McAuliffe30%30%30%24%35%30%28%31%29%28%37%**35%31%35%19%26%29%37%27%36%28%34%29%27%31%30%31%35%28%34%21%33%26%26%24%38%30%
Moran21%23%20%20%24%20%21%22%20%19%21%**29%26%20%24%23%20%25%22%20%21%18%26%23%20%22%19%12%25%20%26%20%23%15%32%17%20%
Other / Undecided7%3%10%8%6%8%7%7%7%6%11%**9%3%9%5%5%6%7%6%8%7%9%6%5%7%6%7%11%5%7%2%2%15%9%4%6%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%46%54%17%29%33%21%46%54%63%27%3%7%8%62%29%16%56%23%64%36%50%29%21%26%67%38%58%32%68%78%16%59%41%21%26%26%27%
 
 
Regardless of what you told us about the June 9th primary, thinking ahead now to the GENERAL election in November... If the only two names on the ballot for Governor of Virginia were Republican Bob McDonnell and ... Democrat Creigh Deeds, who would you vote for?
1685 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)47%57%37%51%46%45%45%48%45%53%21%**23%88%11%44%82%31%20%48%45%55%38%40%70%28%56%39%38%51%13%83%21%16%46%42%46%51%
Deeds (D)43%35%50%36%43%46%47%40%47%37%67%**57%7%80%42%12%57%69%43%42%37%49%50%22%61%35%51%49%41%76%11%68%72%41%47%43%40%
Undecided11%8%13%13%11%9%8%12%9%10%12%**20%5%10%14%5%12%11%9%12%9%13%10%8%10%9%10%13%8%11%6%11%12%13%11%11%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%24%30%27%19%55%45%74%17%4%5%34%36%27%33%46%15%57%43%52%28%20%44%49%45%51%32%68%48%45%59%41%26%27%20%28%
 
 
What if the only two names on the November ballot were ... Bob McDonnell and Democrat Terry McAuliffe?
1685 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)48%58%39%50%48%46%50%49%48%55%22%**26%89%12%48%84%36%15%50%47%57%41%38%71%31%57%42%41%52%14%84%28%18%49%44%47%53%
McAuliffe (D)41%33%48%37%42%46%39%40%43%35%64%**61%8%78%38%12%52%77%42%40%34%46%54%21%59%34%49%44%41%75%10%63%70%37%48%42%38%
Undecided11%9%12%13%11%8%11%12%9%10%14%**13%3%11%14%5%12%8%8%13%9%13%8%8%10%9%10%15%7%11%6%9%13%14%8%11%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%24%30%27%19%55%45%74%17%4%5%34%36%27%33%46%15%57%43%52%28%20%44%49%45%51%32%68%48%45%59%41%26%27%20%28%
 
 
What if it was Bob McDonnell against Democrat Brian Moran?
1685 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income2008 VoteMind Made Up?Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KObamaMcCainMind Is Might ChShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McDonnell (R)49%59%40%52%48%49%49%50%49%56%20%**31%89%14%48%85%36%18%50%48%57%39%42%71%32%59%41%42%52%15%84%26%15%50%44%49%54%
Moran (D)38%31%43%34%39%41%36%37%39%32%61%**53%6%71%37%9%49%71%41%34%31%43%48%19%56%31%45%39%38%70%7%63%68%33%47%37%33%
Undecided13%10%17%15%14%10%15%14%12%13%18%**16%5%15%15%6%15%11%9%18%11%18%10%10%13%11%13%19%10%15%8%11%17%17%9%14%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%24%30%27%19%55%45%74%17%4%5%34%36%27%33%46%15%57%43%52%28%20%44%49%45%51%32%68%48%45%59%41%26%27%20%28%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.