Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22965

Florida, 19 Wks Till Votes Counted, Clinton 4 Atop Trump; Marco and Murphy Tied in Pivotal Battle for Rubio's Senate Seat; Amendment 2 Up: Donald Trump desperately needs Florida's 29 electoral votes to capture the White House in 134 days. But in an election for President in Florida today, between presumptive Republican Party nominee Trump and presumptive Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton, Clinton edges Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 in Orlando. At this hour, it's Clinton 46%, Trump 42%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 2%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%. 19 weeks until votes are counted, Trump leads among Florida's white voters and among Florida's Cubans, but trails among Florida's non-Cuban Hispanics, Florida's blacks and Florida's Asians. Among "very conservative" men, a group Trump must dominate, he holds 73% of the vote, but loses 20%, who cross-over to Clinton. Among high-school educated men, Trump leads, as one would expect, but just by 16 points, 54% to 38%. Among the most affluent voters, who typically gravitate to Republicans, Trump and Clinton tie, 44% each. In Southeast Florida, which includes Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties (Mar a Lago is in Palm Beach County), Trump trails 56% to 32%. Trump leads in Northwest FL, Northeast FL, and Central FL, and ties Clinton in Southwest FL, but that is not enough for him to overcome Clinton's advantage in the population centers of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Boca Raton. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters under age 50. Trump leads by 2 points among voters age 50+. Clinton leads by 11 points among women. Trump leads by 3 points among men -- a 14-point gender gap. Trump wins pro-life voters by 40 points, he wins gun owners by 22 points and wins Evangelicals by 28 points. Tea-Party members break 4:1 for Trump. Moderates break 5:3 for Clinton. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, Clinton leads Trump by 9. Among voters who say that national security is the most important issue, Trump edges Clinton. Among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Trump crushes Clinton by 45 points. In a hypothetical election today for United States Senator from Florida, incumbent Republican Marco Rubio, who vowed not to seek re-election before seeking re-election, may or may not hold onto his seat, today's poll results show. In a match-up against possible Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, Rubio and Murphy tie, 43% each, at this hour. If the Democrats instead nominate Alan Grayson, Rubio today leads narrowly, 44% to 40%. Much can and will change in this contest as voters get re-accustomed to Rubio being back in the race, but for now, the contest is a jump-ball. Trump's coattails, or lack of coattails, may help determine Rubio's fate. The seat has national significance if the Democrats are able to pick-up 4 or more other U.S. Senate seats on Election Day. The 08/30/16 Republican primary is not competitive --- Rubio has 3 times as many vote as his 3 Republican challengers combined. The Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate is not yet on voters' radar. The last 5 public polls released in the contest show, on average, 45% of likely voters to be undecided. SurveyUSA today finds 35% of likely Democratic Primary voters undecided. Among voters with a preference, Murphy is at 30%, atop Grayson at 21%, Pam Keith at 10%, Reginald Luster at 3% and Rocky De La Fuente at 2%. Any outcome is possible, though Grayson certainly would rather be in Murphy's shoes today. Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with certain conditions, is 3:1 favored to pass at this hour. Opposition to ballot measures increases as Election Day approaches. When votes are counted in 134 days, the "No" vote may be significantly greater than it is today. Voter Screening / Historical Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 state of Florida adults 06/25/16 through 06/27/16. Research began as soon as names on the primary ballots were finalized 06/24/16. Most interviews were completed after the results of the British vote to leave the European Union were announced. Of the 2,000 adults interviewed, 1,873 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic Primary, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican Primary. Only voters eligible and likely to vote in each primary were asked the Senate primary horse-race questions. 1,678 survey respondents were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, other state offices and statewide ballot measures. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (66% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (34% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida by less than 1 percentage point. In 2008, Obama carried Florida by 3 percentage points. In 2004, George W Bush carried Florida by 5 percentage points. In 2000, a handful of votes separated Al Gore and Bush before The Supreme Court of the United States awarded the state to Bush. In 1996, Bill Clinton carried the state by 6 points, the largest margin of victory for either party in Florida in the past 25 years. In 1992 George Herbert Walker Bush carried Florida by 2 points.

1	If the August 30th Republican primary for United States Senate were today, and these were the Republican primary candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Marco Rubio? Dwight Young? Carlos Beruff? Or Ernie Rivera?

555 Likely August GOP Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Marco Rubio	350	173	177	37	70	109	134	107	243	23	13	329	7	14	171	130	40	3	1	0	3	301	44	3	134	141	60	11	2	84	240	117	95	98	148	189	90	116	143	226	106	176	132	59	114	168	79	120	137	86	264	39	29	116	88	79	88	73	31
Dwight Young	57	34	23	8	13	21	14	21	36	6	2	47	0	10	22	15	17	0	1	2	0	36	18	2	12	19	19	4	1	12	35	15	23	9	20	26	15	20	21	31	23	24	18	11	22	21	18	18	19	13	44	4	11	14	14	14	10	8	7
Carlos Beruff	63	39	24	4	10	20	28	14	49	3	5	57	1	5	31	18	9	4	0	0	0	48	13	0	23	28	9	0	1	21	37	26	21	13	28	31	19	20	22	44	15	30	23	11	18	29	11	23	24	12	51	1	10	25	16	10	19	15	6
Ernie Rivera	11	7	4	4	3	2	3	7	4	1	0	10	0	0	4	3	3	1	0	0	0	7	4	0	4	2	4	0	0	2	9	6	3	2	4	7	5	3	3	4	7	6	5	2	2	7	3	6	3	3	8	2	1	5	1	2	2	2	2
Undecided	74	34	40	8	27	20	20	35	39	2	2	67	1	6	28	20	16	5	2	1	1	48	22	2	16	26	23	2	2	10	50	22	15	19	21	43	17	36	20	26	35	34	33	12	26	34	15	28	30	37	37	4	13	22	14	21	16	11	7
Total	555	287	268	61	123	172	199	184	371	36	23	509	10	36	255	186	85	13	4	3	4	441	101	7	189	216	114	18	7	130	371	185	158	141	221	295	145	194	209	331	186	270	211	95	181	259	125	193	212	150	404	50	64	181	134	126	136	108	53
Composition of Likely August GOP Primary Voters	100%	52%	48%	11%	22%	31%	36%	33%	67%	6%	4%	92%	2%	6%	46%	34%	15%	2%	1%	1%	1%	80%	18%	1%	34%	39%	21%	3%	1%	24%	67%	34%	29%	26%	40%	54%	27%	35%	38%	61%	34%	50%	39%	18%	34%	48%	24%	36%	40%	27%	73%	9%	11%	33%	24%	23%	25%	20%	10%

2	If the August 30th Democratic primary for United States Senate were today, and these were the Democratic primary candidates, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Alan Grayson? Patrick Murphy? Pam Keith? Rocky de la Fuente? Or Reginald Luster?

618 Likely August Democratic Primary Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Alan Grayson	130	61	69	13	25	42	49	38	92	5	8	107	18	4	4	2	3	6	25	33	57	6	34	90	10	9	28	51	27	7	119	59	14	20	21	104	62	37	30	21	105	40	85	13	50	66	37	49	41	35	95	11	13	57	21	28	3	6	6
Patrick Murphy	184	89	95	22	27	66	68	50	134	9	11	141	28	15	1	1	3	7	16	65	92	2	25	157	18	15	58	54	33	13	161	64	15	48	32	145	53	67	60	41	137	50	128	34	47	99	46	63	70	46	137	13	5	45	33	89	1	12	18
Pam Keith	60	29	31	8	15	25	12	23	37	5	1	42	17	1	0	1	2	5	13	17	23	1	20	40	6	4	31	11	8	3	56	22	7	12	11	48	24	19	16	16	41	33	25	5	23	32	13	23	22	16	44	6	3	22	15	15	0	4	3
Rocky De La Fuente	10	7	3	2	1	3	4	3	7	0	2	7	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	2	8	2	1	4	2	1	0	9	2	2	3	6	4	1	4	5	5	4	4	5	2	5	3	3	6	1	3	7	1	3	1	3	2	0	1	1
Reginald Luster	17	6	11	7	7	1	2	14	3	0	0	11	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	11	4	2	1	14	3	2	5	6	1	4	13	5	4	2	3	14	7	9	1	5	10	3	9	6	4	5	2	8	5	11	6	2	2	4	1	7	0	1	4
Undecided	217	86	131	49	63	56	49	112	105	6	16	136	67	14	2	2	7	4	31	99	69	4	43	168	12	22	86	45	38	7	191	93	17	55	53	148	83	78	55	52	154	70	137	23	78	114	55	102	57	119	98	19	20	39	60	79	0	5	7
Total	618	278	339	102	139	192	185	241	377	25	38	445	136	37	8	6	14	22	87	231	247	14	124	478	51	53	212	169	109	34	548	246	58	141	125	463	230	213	167	140	450	200	389	82	207	318	156	251	197	230	387	51	46	168	132	219	4	29	39
Composition of Likely August Democratic Primary Voters	100%	45%	55%	16%	23%	31%	30%	39%	61%	4%	6%	72%	22%	6%	1%	1%	2%	4%	14%	37%	40%	2%	20%	77%	8%	9%	34%	27%	18%	6%	89%	41%	10%	24%	20%	75%	38%	35%	27%	23%	74%	33%	64%	13%	34%	52%	26%	42%	33%	37%	63%	8%	7%	27%	21%	36%	1%	5%	6%

3	If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or another candidate?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Donald Trump (R)	698	376	322	69	162	226	242	231	467	39	26	634	22	43	262	188	138	51	22	27	4	449	210	31	199	279	159	26	6	141	469	259	205	185	269	381	202	245	242	414	248	369	240	128	246	302	176	243	253	180	518	57	80	233	169	159	139	113	69
Hillary Clinton (D)	765	353	412	126	187	226	225	314	452	30	61	542	169	54	15	22	28	49	117	257	274	37	194	531	54	71	274	209	118	36	683	322	71	173	141	579	269	284	203	156	566	223	511	104	233	413	203	295	249	298	467	51	54	209	172	279	11	31	48
Gary Johnson (L)	35	18	16	5	14	10	5	19	15	5	3	27	3	5	2	4	9	11	2	5	2	6	21	7	3	5	14	7	3	1	31	10	6	4	7	27	13	11	10	9	24	14	18	3	10	21	6	12	14	12	22	3	4	15	6	7	1	3	1
Jill Stein (G)	22	10	12	11	4	6	2	14	8	2	0	20	0	2	3	2	1	3	9	1	3	5	13	4	3	2	3	7	8	4	18	7	1	7	2	20	13	2	7	4	17	5	15	3	8	11	6	15	1	8	14	5	1	6	7	4	2	2	1
Other	68	25	43	19	13	20	16	32	37	3	9	49	9	10	2	12	5	18	15	11	4	14	38	16	8	9	23	11	10	3	57	16	12	16	14	49	31	18	18	25	36	20	41	10	26	29	27	22	15	25	44	7	7	29	12	13	1	3	4
Undecided	90	30	60	20	32	24	14	52	38	9	1	67	18	5	9	16	12	13	21	14	0	24	46	14	9	13	39	6	4	5	71	25	5	29	18	64	29	27	34	27	55	27	56	16	21	51	23	29	36	50	40	6	5	22	22	36	1	3	5
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%

4	What's the biggest issue facing the 2016 candidates for President? The economy? Immigration? Education? National Security? Health Care? Climate Change? Or something else?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Economy	639	324	315	97	165	192	185	262	378	28	36	495	113	32	103	85	64	63	73	135	110	188	200	245	107	146	204	105	46	69	515	639	0	0	175	430	207	234	188	251	358	238	355	98	206	318	167	234	217	218	421	55	51	202	146	186	57	67	51
Immigration	300	150	150	43	58	73	126	101	199	15	26	249	21	30	85	58	50	23	17	33	31	143	90	65	77	89	74	29	14	50	212	0	300	0	105	165	100	95	103	148	134	123	132	58	112	120	89	99	100	73	227	22	28	91	63	95	43	46	30
Education	67	36	31	22	19	9	17	42	26	11	6	51	14	2	8	5	3	6	19	15	11	12	28	27	8	12	16	14	13	9	52	0	0	0	15	44	19	31	16	17	47	28	36	5	21	40	12	35	18	30	37	5	3	21	12	27	4	5	4
National Security	414	186	228	55	118	145	96	173	241	23	25	341	37	36	79	72	59	28	33	79	58	151	120	137	66	100	145	53	33	49	325	0	0	414	115	277	138	146	127	167	220	190	197	66	135	210	104	150	156	171	244	35	48	117	110	104	45	32	33
Health Care	108	37	70	15	18	42	32	33	75	7	7	85	13	10	9	13	5	10	9	23	38	22	25	61	8	12	36	27	19	5	95	0	0	0	20	86	36	46	23	22	80	31	70	18	36	51	36	39	31	40	67	6	10	37	25	30	5	1	2
Climate Change	55	33	22	12	9	15	19	21	34	2	0	48	5	2	1	2	1	6	9	11	24	3	16	35	2	1	11	25	14	4	48	0	0	0	5	49	29	9	16	9	43	17	35	6	10	37	7	28	17	18	37	2	4	18	11	20	0	1	4
Other	59	34	25	3	20	19	17	23	36	2	1	43	12	4	5	5	5	8	21	7	9	10	34	16	4	7	19	6	7	2	53	0	0	0	10	46	11	18	30	13	45	21	34	4	17	37	12	20	27	12	47	2	4	19	13	21	2	1	1
Not Sure	35	12	23	3	5	16	12	7	28	0	0	28	7	1	2	4	5	1	3	12	6	7	10	18	3	12	7	5	4	0	29	0	0	0	8	23	17	6	11	9	18	10	23	9	9	14	15	13	4	10	25	2	2	10	7	15	0	0	3
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%

5	If the November election for United States Senator from Florida were today, and these were the candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for? Republican Marco Rubio? Or Democrat Patrick Murphy?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Marco Rubio (R)	721	373	348	98	172	214	238	270	451	49	42	642	36	43	245	204	128	51	27	43	17	449	207	60	208	277	170	35	9	139	503	273	177	198	276	405	198	260	256	424	257	367	274	118	251	332	177	263	256	218	503	65	69	233	173	182	131	119	63
Patrick Murphy (D)	716	354	363	103	175	223	215	278	438	27	50	521	148	48	18	16	29	49	129	223	252	34	207	474	41	51	252	202	121	35	643	297	76	151	119	565	274	240	193	132	555	208	477	95	218	388	178	264	253	242	474	42	47	209	159	258	12	26	45
Other	114	52	62	18	30	32	34	48	66	6	7	76	20	18	18	6	24	24	16	16	8	24	64	25	20	28	37	10	7	11	81	38	32	21	30	58	35	36	38	40	61	36	58	26	42	40	45	38	25	35	79	11	15	38	24	26	8	9	15
Undecided	127	35	93	31	35	43	18	66	61	7	2	101	17	9	12	18	12	20	13	33	11	29	45	44	7	23	54	17	12	4	102	31	16	45	27	92	50	50	26	39	72	46	72	25	33	68	41	51	34	77	50	10	19	35	31	33	5	1	6
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%

6	What if the candidates for United States Senator were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Alan Grayson?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Marco Rubio (R)	737	383	354	97	182	219	239	279	458	47	43	660	31	45	247	204	126	52	23	57	21	451	201	78	212	276	177	41	12	144	515	278	180	198	274	423	204	262	264	435	262	375	279	117	249	352	170	268	275	225	512	63	67	247	174	185	133	122	59
Alan Grayson (D)	667	318	349	98	164	209	197	261	406	25	48	480	146	42	15	15	20	48	130	206	233	31	198	438	36	54	224	190	118	31	599	272	73	136	117	515	265	220	175	113	525	191	448	98	205	351	180	257	214	230	437	43	49	191	151	233	10	22	49
Other	126	64	61	21	26	34	44	47	78	6	6	85	23	17	18	6	25	24	18	21	12	24	68	33	19	24	43	16	8	9	97	43	31	26	33	73	29	46	44	43	67	32	74	21	46	52	40	43	33	31	95	10	13	38	27	36	8	8	12
Undecided	149	48	101	33	41	49	26	74	75	9	4	114	21	13	12	18	21	21	14	32	22	30	56	54	8	25	68	17	12	5	118	47	15	54	28	110	58	58	30	45	91	60	80	28	45	73	50	49	47	86	62	12	21	37	35	44	5	3	7
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%

7	What if it were Republican Carlos Beruff and Democrat Patrick Murphy?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Carlos Beruff (R)	500	286	214	58	120	153	169	178	322	30	28	445	27	28	194	143	101	25	9	17	9	337	135	25	156	210	99	15	5	120	336	189	142	137	197	278	153	168	172	314	157	263	173	88	164	230	99	186	195	131	368	41	52	165	120	121	111	98	52
Patrick Murphy (D)	786	377	409	121	199	242	223	321	465	31	52	579	156	50	25	26	31	59	139	247	258	51	229	505	56	77	275	209	125	39	699	312	89	163	153	603	287	275	216	172	580	235	517	107	246	417	208	298	261	287	499	52	48	220	169	296	16	32	50
Other	154	64	90	18	29	49	58	47	107	13	9	120	15	19	33	24	32	26	16	17	5	57	74	22	32	35	52	12	7	15	112	45	42	34	42	88	39	49	63	68	70	56	75	30	56	64	57	53	38	30	124	18	20	44	38	33	11	12	12
Undecided	239	86	153	53	63	67	55	116	123	14	12	195	23	21	40	51	29	34	22	35	16	91	85	51	32	58	87	28	12	15	182	93	26	80	60	152	78	95	63	83	138	103	117	39	78	117	77	80	75	124	115	17	30	85	59	48	19	13	14
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%

8	And what if it were Republican Carlos Beruff and Democrat Alan Grayson?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Carlos Beruff (R)	541	303	238	57	128	165	193	184	357	35	31	486	19	35	212	151	115	33	10	12	4	363	158	16	166	228	111	20	3	127	359	199	159	145	211	306	165	176	193	341	167	288	185	91	178	254	107	198	214	135	407	46	52	183	129	131	122	102	52
Alan Grayson (D)	758	363	395	127	192	237	202	319	439	31	52	550	163	46	21	24	23	49	137	251	252	45	209	503	60	71	255	200	124	40	674	319	81	153	142	580	281	269	203	159	573	224	503	109	232	405	206	290	247	290	468	52	51	212	169	273	10	36	54
Other	163	75	87	21	32	49	61	53	109	14	6	126	20	16	26	25	31	30	18	19	12	52	79	31	26	30	57	22	9	9	129	46	36	38	46	94	42	51	64	61	83	51	86	27	58	70	54	56	43	31	132	13	21	49	32	47	11	7	11
Undecided	217	72	145	45	60	61	50	106	111	9	13	176	19	21	33	44	24	32	20	33	21	77	76	53	25	50	89	22	13	12	167	75	23	78	53	140	70	90	54	75	122	94	108	37	77	99	75	73	64	116	100	17	27	70	57	47	13	10	12
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%

9	Also on the ballot in November will be Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with certain medical conditions. On Amendment 2, ... Are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?

1678 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cuban	Non-Cuba	Race			Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Tea Party		Presidential Issue			Evangelical		Attend Church			Abortion		Gun Owner		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region					Strong R	Very Con	HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Yes	Hispanic	White	Black	Asian /	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Yes	No	Economy	Immigrat	National	Yes	No	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Pro-life	Pro-choi	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	North We	North Ea	Central	South We	South Ea	Men	Men	Men
Yes	1143	564	579	195	294	384	270	489	654	58	68	907	150	86	135	143	120	100	152	251	235	277	372	486	144	201	361	235	139	98	947	442	172	273	251	830	432	425	273	327	751	441	622	194	367	554	306	424	380	437	706	87	95	351	254	356	74	82	96
No	310	147	163	28	76	72	134	104	206	21	20	248	40	22	106	61	45	22	13	37	21	167	80	58	98	102	78	9	5	61	230	119	75	81	129	161	63	101	143	193	102	127	146	42	98	164	81	101	120	74	236	24	21	106	89	70	54	55	21
Not Certain	225	102	123	27	42	56	101	69	157	8	13	184	32	10	52	40	27	23	20	28	31	92	70	59	34	76	73	20	5	30	152	78	53	60	72	129	62	60	98	116	91	89	114	28	80	111	55	92	68	62	164	17	34	58	45	71	28	18	12
Total	1678	813	865	249	412	512	505	661	1017	88	101	1339	222	118	292	244	193	144	185	315	288	536	523	603	276	379	512	265	149	189	1329	639	300	414	452	1120	557	586	514	636	945	657	882	264	545	828	441	617	568	572	1106	129	151	514	387	498	156	155	128
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	48%	52%	15%	25%	30%	30%	39%	61%	5%	6%	80%	13%	7%	18%	15%	12%	9%	11%	19%	17%	32%	31%	36%	16%	23%	31%	16%	9%	11%	80%	38%	18%	25%	27%	67%	34%	35%	31%	38%	57%	40%	54%	16%	33%	51%	27%	38%	35%	34%	66%	8%	9%	31%	23%	30%	9%	9%	8%