Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19677
 
In Oregon, Obama Under-Performs 2008, But Still Sits 9 Points Atop Romney in 2012; 4 Ballot Measures Examined:

In an election for President of the United States in Oregon today, 09/13/12, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 50% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. Obama carried Oregon by 16 points in 2008, but leads by 9 points 5 weeks till 2012 voting in Oregon begins.

Of Mitt Romney supporters, half are voting "against Barack Obama" more than they are voting "for Mitt Romney." This is a window into how tepid enthusiasm is for Romney in Oregon. By contrast: Of Obama supporters, 80% are voting "for Barack Obama" compared to 17% who are voting "against Mitt Romney."

The gender gap in Oregon is as large as anywhere in the USA: men favor Romney by 3 points, women favor Obama by 21 points, a 24-point gap. Obama leads in every age group, leads among Independents and leads among Moderates. Romney ties Obama among voters who have attended some college, but Obama trumps Romney among voters who have not been to college, and voters who have a 4-year college degree. Obama leads among voters earning less than $40,000 a year and those earning more than $80,000 a year; Romney narrowly leads among middle-income voters.

Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, is fiercely fought, and could go either way. Today, the measure is narrowly opposed, 41% to 37%. Republicans oppose 4:1, Democrats favor 2:1.

Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, trails 43% to 27%. Republicans, Democrats, Independents, conservatives, moderates, liberals, men and women all oppose. Younger voters split, older voters oppose.

Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, trails 39% to 28%.

Voters are not yet focused on Measure 85, which deals with a corporate tax "kicker." 65% of likely voters are "not certain" how they will vote on 85. Among voters who are certain, 21% vote No, 14% vote Yes.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Oregon adults 09/10/12 through 09/13/12. Of the adults, 633 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Mitt Romney (R)41%45%36%33%44%42%43%39%42%37%42%84%8%35%82%35%6%39%44%38%35%46%38%39%44%
Barack Obama (D)50%42%57%52%47%48%52%50%50%45%51%10%87%42%11%50%89%49%43%56%55%43%54%51%47%
Other5%7%3%8%3%6%3%5%5%7%4%3%3%12%6%6%3%5%7%4%7%4%6%5%5%
Undecided5%6%4%7%6%4%2%6%3%11%2%3%2%11%1%9%1%7%6%3%3%8%2%5%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%21%47%53%28%72%34%41%26%29%41%27%15%43%43%37%38%25%66%34%
 
 
Is this more a vote FOR Mitt Romney or AGAINST Barack Obama?
225 Romney VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 6.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
For Mitt Romney47%48%46%45%44%48%52%45%50%39%50%54%41%29%49%45%**52%53%39%51%44%48%47%48%
Against Barack Obama50%50%51%50%56%49%46%53%48%59%47%44%52%70%49%52%**48%46%58%45%55%50%50%51%
Not Sure2%2%3%5%0%3%3%2%3%2%2%2%7%1%2%3%**0%1%4%4%1%2%3%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Romney Voters100%53%47%19%26%32%22%45%55%26%74%69%8%22%59%36%4%14%46%40%32%43%24%64%36%
 
 
Is this more a vote FOR Barack Obama or AGAINST Mitt Romney?
274 Obama VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
For Barack Obama80%83%79%71%90%75%87%80%80%77%81%56%84%74%73%74%87%76%78%83%78%82%81%82%77%
Against Mitt Romney17%15%18%22%10%22%11%16%17%19%16%38%13%25%17%21%12%17%20%14%18%15%17%16%20%
Not Sure3%3%3%7%0%3%1%4%2%4%3%6%3%2%9%4%1%7%1%3%5%3%1%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Obama Voters100%40%60%25%23%31%22%47%53%26%74%7%72%22%7%42%48%15%37%48%40%33%27%68%32%
 
 
On Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, and allow state-licensed stores to grow and sell marijuana to adults, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes37%42%33%47%36%39%24%42%33%45%34%18%47%46%18%35%61%36%42%32%45%38%26%36%38%
No41%40%41%33%39%39%53%36%45%31%44%65%24%34%68%39%14%34%40%43%35%42%45%41%39%
Not Certain22%18%27%20%25%22%23%22%23%24%22%16%29%20%14%26%26%29%18%25%20%20%29%22%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%21%47%53%28%72%34%41%26%29%41%27%15%43%43%37%38%25%66%34%
 
 
On Measure 82, which would allow privately owned casinos, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes27%32%21%31%26%27%22%29%25%36%23%23%26%32%25%29%25%34%31%19%30%25%24%25%30%
No43%44%42%35%38%44%53%37%48%32%47%49%40%39%50%37%45%34%43%45%40%45%44%43%43%
Not Certain31%24%37%33%36%29%25%35%28%32%30%29%34%29%25%34%30%32%25%36%30%30%32%33%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%21%47%53%28%72%34%41%26%29%41%27%15%43%43%37%38%25%66%34%
 
 
On Measure 83, which would allow a privately owned casino in Wood Village, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes28%32%24%32%30%28%21%31%25%39%24%23%29%32%24%32%27%35%32%22%29%29%26%29%27%
No39%41%37%32%31%41%51%32%45%29%43%45%37%34%47%32%40%33%38%42%36%39%44%40%37%
Not Certain33%27%39%36%39%30%28%37%29%33%33%32%34%34%29%36%33%31%31%36%34%33%30%32%36%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%21%47%53%28%72%34%41%26%29%41%27%15%43%43%37%38%25%66%34%
 
 
On Measure 85, which is about a corporate tax "kicker," are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
552 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KPortlandRest of
Yes14%20%9%12%15%14%16%14%15%18%13%14%12%18%14%16%10%17%12%15%16%14%13%13%17%
No21%21%20%18%19%23%22%18%23%17%22%23%20%19%22%19%23%22%24%17%23%21%18%20%22%
Not Certain65%59%71%70%66%63%62%68%63%65%65%63%68%63%63%65%66%61%64%68%61%65%69%67%61%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%24%32%21%47%53%28%72%34%41%26%29%41%27%15%43%43%37%38%25%66%34%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.