Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20105

In Minnesota, Marriage Amendment Teeter Totter May Be Tipping, But Is It Enough To Defeat Ballot Measure?

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back 8 weeks, SurveyUSA has never shown the Minnesota Marriage Amendment being defeated. Until today. The margin is small, and could just be statistical noise, but at the wire, SurveyUSA has "No" at 48%, "Yes" at 47%, well within the survey's possible sources of error, but significant enough to warrant a mention. In SurveyUSA's two most recent polls, Yes led No by a single point. Now the dress shoe is on the other foot, with No leading Yes by a single point. There is some movement among women, and among Independents, in favor of No.

In the Presidential election to capture Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, Barack Obama appears to have a tailwind at the finish line, defeating Mitt Romney 52% to 41%, Obama's largest lead in 5 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to July 2012. Obama has polled at or above 50% in every poll since September 2012. Romney has never polled above 43%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 11/01/12 through 11/03/12. Of the adults, 615 were registered to vote in the state of Minnesota. Of the registered, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

556 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Mitt Romney (R)	229	121	108	49	77	63	41	126	104	46	183	155	3	58	135	70	5	42	82	105	49	83	92	138	30	34	27
Barack Obama (D)	288	128	161	58	76	98	57	134	155	57	232	9	201	72	21	158	90	48	105	134	92	103	84	170	32	37	49
Other	16	9	7	4	3	5	4	6	10	5	11	1	3	10	3	8	4	3	9	4	4	9	3	7	4	4	2
Undecided	22	8	14	14	3	3	2	17	5	14	8	4	0	9	3	9	2	2	6	14	7	9	5	17	2	2	1
Total	556	265	290	124	158	170	104	282	274	122	433	169	207	149	162	244	100	94	202	257	153	204	184	331	68	78	79
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	31%	19%	51%	49%	22%	78%	30%	37%	27%	29%	44%	18%	17%	36%	46%	28%	38%	34%	60%	12%	14%	14%

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?

556 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Kurt Bills (R)	165	93	72	33	60	46	27	93	72	38	127	118	4	35	110	43	3	25	66	74	31	65	66	101	14	30	19
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	336	149	187	60	86	118	72	146	190	59	277	37	193	96	40	179	91	62	114	157	98	118	110	195	42	41	57
Other	18	5	13	7	4	3	3	12	6	1	16	2	6	9	4	9	3	2	10	5	7	7	3	6	8	3	1
Undecided	37	18	19	24	8	3	2	32	5	24	13	12	4	8	8	14	3	5	11	20	18	14	6	29	4	3	1
Total	556	265	290	124	158	170	104	282	274	122	433	169	207	149	162	244	100	94	202	257	153	204	184	331	68	78	79
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	31%	19%	51%	49%	22%	78%	30%	37%	27%	29%	44%	18%	17%	36%	46%	28%	38%	34%	60%	12%	14%	14%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?

556 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Health Care	165	58	107	35	38	49	42	74	92	37	128	41	81	37	36	80	41	31	59	75	56	60	47	94	21	21	29
Job Creation	156	86	70	26	45	54	32	70	86	28	128	62	46	42	61	72	17	25	64	66	36	56	60	96	17	24	20
Taxes	84	51	34	16	35	24	10	50	34	19	66	32	26	25	29	37	14	14	28	42	15	31	36	46	12	16	10
Gas Prices	19	8	11	7	5	5	1	13	6	1	18	4	7	5	6	4	4	3	9	7	9	5	5	10	3	2	4
War On Terrorism	10	5	6	1	4	4	2	5	5	1	9	4	3	2	4	5	1	3	4	4	3	5	1	6	1	2	2
Education	33	13	20	9	12	7	5	21	12	10	23	2	19	11	1	17	9	4	11	19	5	13	15	25	2	4	3
Something Else	69	39	30	20	16	22	10	36	33	19	50	20	21	22	23	21	12	13	24	31	22	27	17	39	11	8	11
Not Sure	19	6	13	10	4	4	2	14	6	8	11	5	3	5	2	8	2	2	2	14	8	7	4	15	2	1	1
Total	556	265	290	124	158	170	104	282	274	122	433	169	207	149	162	244	100	94	202	257	153	204	184	331	68	78	79
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	31%	19%	51%	49%	22%	78%	30%	37%	27%	29%	44%	18%	17%	36%	46%	28%	38%	34%	60%	12%	14%	14%

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

556 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	259	140	119	46	76	77	60	122	137	52	207	129	52	64	134	89	15	60	93	106	72	99	81	143	32	41	43
No	269	112	157	67	74	88	41	141	128	60	210	35	149	76	23	140	84	31	100	137	69	99	95	169	33	33	35
Undecided	27	13	15	11	8	5	3	19	9	11	17	5	5	8	5	15	1	4	9	14	11	7	8	19	3	4	2
Total	556	265	290	124	158	170	104	282	274	122	433	169	207	149	162	244	100	94	202	257	153	204	184	331	68	78	79
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	31%	19%	51%	49%	22%	78%	30%	37%	27%	29%	44%	18%	17%	36%	46%	28%	38%	34%	60%	12%	14%	14%

Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"

556 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	265	145	120	58	89	69	49	147	117	64	201	132	42	79	125	95	20	44	106	114	63	102	95	160	35	36	34
No	265	112	154	49	64	97	55	113	153	44	222	30	160	65	33	139	79	44	89	130	81	91	85	152	31	39	43
Undecided	25	9	17	16	6	4	0	22	4	15	11	8	5	5	3	11	2	6	7	12	9	12	5	19	1	3	2
Total	556	265	290	124	158	170	104	282	274	122	433	169	207	149	162	244	100	94	202	257	153	204	184	331	68	78	79
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	31%	19%	51%	49%	22%	78%	30%	37%	27%	29%	44%	18%	17%	36%	46%	28%	38%	34%	60%	12%	14%	14%

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?

556 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Ideology			Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Republican	221	115	106	48	71	64	38	120	102	47	175	158	6	46	130	70	5	35	84	102	43	83	90	137	29	32	23
DFL	264	117	147	51	70	87	57	120	144	49	215	4	195	61	16	144	87	45	92	126	84	93	79	153	29	33	49
Independence Party	32	21	11	9	9	7	7	18	14	7	25	2	3	24	10	12	5	7	14	12	9	15	8	20	4	6	3
Other	32	10	22	16	6	8	1	22	10	19	13	4	2	14	3	17	3	6	10	15	15	11	4	18	5	6	2
Undecided	6	2	4	0	2	3	1	2	4	0	6	1	1	3	2	2	0	1	3	2	1	2	3	4	0	0	2
Total	556	265	290	124	158	170	104	282	274	122	433	169	207	149	162	244	100	94	202	257	153	204	184	331	68	78	79
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	22%	28%	31%	19%	51%	49%	22%	78%	30%	37%	27%	29%	44%	18%	17%	36%	46%	28%	38%	34%	60%	12%	14%	14%