| On the eve of the 5/17/05 Los Angeles Mayor runoff, a rematch of the runoff election from 4 years ago, Antonio Villaraigosa defeats incumbent James Hahn 60% to 36%, according to a final SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KABC TV. In the past 2 weeks, Villaraigosa has lost 2 points and Hahn has gained 3 points. 11% of those who voted for Hahn in the 3/8/05 Primary now switch to Villaraigosa. Hahn leads among Republicans and Conservatives, and ties Villaraigosa among voters age 65 and over. *** Filtering: 1,800 City of Los Angeles adults were interviewed 5/13 - 5/15. 1365 of them were registered to vote. Of them, 528 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. *** A competing opinion poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times newspaper, released 5/9/05, based on interviews with 742 likely voters conducted May 2 to May 8, shows Villaraigosa with a smaller, 11-point lead over Hahn. In the primary, SurveyUSA overstated the size of Villaraigosa margin of victory; the Los Angeles Times understated the size of Villaraigosa margin of victory. Today, SurveyUSA shows Villaraigosa leading by 14 points in the San Fernando valley. The Los Angeles Times shows Villaraigosa leading by 1 point in the San Fernando Valley. Composition of the electorate and size of the Latino vote will determine Villaraigosa's ultimate margin of victory. |