Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10729
 
Round 'n Round MO Senate Goes, Where It Stops No One Knows: The Missouri Senate race remains a jump ball 7 days to the election, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. Three weeks ago, Democrat challenger Claire McCaskill led. Last week, Republican incumbent Jim Talent led. Today, McCaskill is back on top, this time by 3 points, within the margin of sampling error, true, but now with just enough of an advantage at this precise hour to allow one to say the odds are with her again. There is a complex, symbiotic relationship in Missouri between the U.S. Senate race and Amendment 2, on stem-cell research. It is difficult to separate cause and effect. If you examine SurveyUSA's tracking graphs on the Senate contest, you will see little movement among Democrats and little movement among Republicans. But among Independents, the lead has changed hands 4 times in 5 polls. Today, McCaskill leads by 6 among the 21% of Missouri Likely Voters who describe themselves as Independent, up 6 from 1 week ago. Among middle-income voters, the lead has also changed hands 4 times. Last week, Talent was up 9; today, McCaskill is up 10. Rural MO continues to support Talent. Urban MO continues to support McCaskill. The suburbs are now tied. Of those voting 'Yes' on Amendment 2, 76% back McCaskill. Of those voting 'No' on 2, 82% back Talent.
 
Late Deciders Break Evenly 'For' & 'Against' Stem Cell Amendment: Opposition to Amendment 2 is growing, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City, but support for the Amendment is growing just as quickly. Compared to 1 week ago, opposition to the amendment is up 4 points, from 36% to 40%. Support for the Amendment is up 5 points, from 45% to now 50%. A week ago, the amendment passed by 9 points, with 18% of Likely Voters 'Not Certain' how they would vote. Today, the Amendment passes by 10 points, with 10% of Likely Voters now 'Not Certain.' Rural and Suburban voters back the Amendment slightly. Urban voters back the Amendment decisively. Of those who vote for McCaskill, 78% vote 'Yes' on the Amendment. of those who vote for Talent, 73% vote 'No' on the Amendment.
 
Filtering: 1,200 Missouri adults were interviewed 10/28/06 - 10/30/06. Of them, 1,045 were registered to vote. Of them, 525 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
 
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate?
525 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyVote For SenatorVote On Amendment 2EducationIncomeBush Job ApprovalRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalTalent (McCaskil'Certain'CertainNot CertNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNot SureOzarkKansas CCentral St. LouiUrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Talent (R)46%49%43%41%48%47%43%50%8%91%5%43%85%30%7%100%0%19%82%30%47%44%46%48%38%42%60%92%8%**58%37%46%45%36%47%53%38%46%46%51%43%
McCaskill (D)49%46%51%50%45%49%55%46%79%7%91%49%10%64%90%0%100%76%12%62%47%50%51%46%56%52%38%4%86%**39%55%48%50%58%46%45%46%47%51%45%55%
Gilmour (L)2%3%1%4%2%2%1%2%0%1%1%4%2%3%1%0%0%3%2%0%1%3%1%2%3%2%0%2%2%**1%6%0%1%2%3%0%10%2%1%2%1%
Other/Undecided4%2%5%5%5%2%1%2%13%1%4%5%3%3%2%0%0%2%5%8%5%3%3%4%3%4%2%2%4%**3%2%6%4%4%4%2%7%6%3%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%18%33%29%20%87%8%36%38%21%35%42%14%46%49%50%40%10%15%38%21%26%28%40%26%44%52%4%18%25%12%45%26%50%24%7%25%26%21%20%
 
Also on the ballot is Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative. In an election today, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain how you will vote on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell initiative?
525 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyVote For SenatorVote On Amendment 2EducationIncomeBush Job ApprovalRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalTalent (McCaskil'Certain'CertainNot CertNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNot SureOzarkKansas CCentral St. LouiUrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
'Certain' Yes50%49%51%47%45%55%54%49%62%22%76%52%20%64%78%21%78%100%0%0%43%51%48%53%51%53%48%23%75%**41%52%57%50%57%48%46%53%42%51%52%54%
'Certain' No40%42%39%37%46%38%38%43%16%72%12%36%75%25%11%73%10%0%100%0%46%39%41%40%37%37%48%71%15%**50%35%40%40%33%43%43%33%43%43%40%38%
Not Certain10%9%10%16%9%7%8%8%22%6%11%12%5%11%11%6%12%0%0%100%11%10%11%7%13%10%5%6%11%**9%13%3%10%10%9%11%14%15%6%8%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%18%33%29%20%87%8%36%38%21%35%42%14%46%49%50%40%10%15%38%21%26%28%40%26%44%52%4%18%25%12%45%26%50%24%7%25%26%21%20%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.