Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16533
5 Days Until KY Senate Primaries, Conway Hard On The Heels of Mongiardo; Rand Paul Coasts:

In a Democratic primary for US Senate today, 05/13/10, Dan Mongiardo may or may not hold off a late charge from Jack Conway, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV. Mongiardo is at 38%, Conway 37%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. With 12% of voters undecided and 3 other candidates in the race, any outcome is possible. Lt. Governor Mongiardo led by 18 points when SurveyUSA polling began 2 months ago; 1 month ago, Conway had closed to within 3. In greater Louisville, Conway's lead has consistently grown, from 8 points in March to 22 points in April to 31 points today. Eastern Kentucky has favored and still favors Mongiardo 3:1. Western Kentucky breaks 4:3 Mongiardo. North Central KY splits. More educated, more affluent, more pro-choice voters back Conway. Gun owners, pro-life voters and those who attend church back Mongiardo. Support for James Buckmaster, Darlene Price and Maurice Sweeney may dissipate on Election Day. Where these voters go could determine who faces Republican nominee Rand Paul in November.

In a Republican Primary for US Senate today, 05/13/10, 5 days to the Primary, Rand Paul defeats Trey Grayson 49% to 33%. Paul has led wire-to-wire. His constituency is educated, affluent and religious. Grayson, KY's Secretary of State, is below 40% among every demographic group, and trails by double digits in all regions of the state save Eastern Kentucky, where he and Paul are even.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 KY adults 05/09/10 through 05/11/10. Of them, 1,882 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 448 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 GOP Primary; 660 were determined to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 Democratic primary. Incumbent Republican US Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election.
(candidate names rotated)
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Gurley Martin? Jon Scribner? Or John Stephenson?
440 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%48%52%13%35%30%22%48%52%98%1%0%1%100%0%0%69%21%6%39%61%62%23%15%78%20%63%34%49%51%24%22%33%21%
(candidate names rotated)
If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? James Buckmaster? Darlene Price? Or Maurice Sweeney?
662 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%51%49%13%29%35%23%42%58%91%7%1%1%0%100%0%28%40%24%34%66%56%26%18%52%45%63%34%56%44%22%28%34%16%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.