Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17493 |
Jump Ball for MN Governor; Independent Horner Complicates Calculus on Whether GOP Emmer or DFL Dayton Has Last-Minute Edge:
Impossible to say who has the late advantage in the Minnesota Governor's race, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. DFL candidate Mark Dayton has never trailed, but neither in 3 polls has he led by more than 5 points. Today's it's Dayton 39%, Republican Tom Emmer 38%, Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 13%. Horner complicates any analysis of the race. The 1 point difference between Dayton and Emmer reported here does not have statistical significance. The contest should be reported as even. Each of the 2 leading candidates has a chance to win. Independent voters split: 37% for Dayton, 37% for Emmer, 17% for Horner. Tea Party supporters back Emmer 21:1. Moderates break 2:1 for Dayton. Emmer has a slight advantage among men, Dayton has a slight advantage among women, but this Gender Gap is less pronounced than in many other 2010 contests nationwide, where men are breaking sharply Republican. |
This survey includes interviews conducted on cellphones and on home phones. Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 824 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 624 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. In the table that follows: "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 29% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 71% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 15% of likely voters. Unlike the findings in some academic research, and unlike SurveyUSA data in California, CPO respondents in Minnesota are not politically different than respondents interviewed on their home phones. |
624 Likely Voters | All | Interview Conducted | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | Vote in Midterms | College Grad | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | CPO, liv | Both Cel | Home pho | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Rarely | Usually | Always | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
Emmer (R) | 240 | 32 | 34 | 173 | 132 | 108 | 52 | 97 | 54 | 37 | 149 | 91 | 231 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 164 | 5 | 65 | 174 | 55 | 3 | 139 | 13 | 53 | 32 | 31 | 104 | 98 | 122 | 112 | 58 | 169 | 136 | 37 | 38 | 29 |
Dayton (DFL) | 244 | 32 | 29 | 182 | 114 | 130 | 48 | 82 | 62 | 52 | 130 | 114 | 225 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 159 | 66 | 24 | 116 | 93 | 7 | 172 | 28 | 35 | 31 | 111 | 94 | 135 | 103 | 78 | 155 | 151 | 26 | 30 | 37 |
Horner (IP) | 84 | 9 | 9 | 66 | 43 | 42 | 21 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 50 | 35 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 19 | 45 | 17 | 10 | 35 | 15 | 23 | 9 | 42 | 31 | 48 | 33 | 22 | 60 | 48 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
Other | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
Undecided | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 25 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 15 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
Total | 624 | 92 | 87 | 445 | 313 | 311 | 141 | 221 | 149 | 113 | 362 | 262 | 586 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 217 | 203 | 178 | 231 | 238 | 127 | 163 | 228 | 109 | 116 | 77 | 279 | 245 | 324 | 284 | 188 | 406 | 362 | 87 | 93 | 82 |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 15% | 14% | 71% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 35% | 24% | 18% | 58% | 42% | 94% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 37% | 38% | 20% | 27% | 37% | 18% | 19% | 13% | 46% | 40% | 53% | 47% | 32% | 68% | 58% | 14% | 15% | 13% |