Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17120
Women and More Affluent KY Voters Take Another Look at Democrat Conway, Who Catches Rand Paul in Race for Bunning's Open Senate Seat:

In an election for United States Senator from Kentucky today, 09/24/10, Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway finish effectively even, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV.

Today, it's Paul 49%, Conway 47%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

* Conway is up 7 points, Paul is down 6, compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago.
* In 4 months of SurveyUSA polling, Conway has not previously polled above 45%; Paul has not previously polled below 51%.
* Among women, Conway and Paul had been even in 3 previous polls, but Conway today leads by 16.
* In North Central KY, Paul had led by as many as 22 points, now tied.
* Among more affluent voters, Paul had led by as many as 21 points, today leads by 5.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 KY adults 09/21/10 through 09/23/10. Of them, 828 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 611 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election for US Senate. Incumbent Republican US Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election.
(candidate names rotated) If the election for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Republican Rand Paul? or Democrat Jack Conway?
611 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Paul (R)49%59%39%46%50%48%50%48%49%50%******83%25%50%82%31%12%87%8%49%21%54%45%51%44%48%64%25%51%44%45%51%48%47%49%53%
Conway (D)47%38%55%44%47%50%45%46%47%46%******12%72%45%15%64%87%10%90%46%64%44%49%44%54%48%31%72%45%53%50%46%45%49%49%40%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%32%31%23%45%55%93%5%1%1%36%51%12%44%36%17%41%31%19%9%48%52%61%22%16%59%38%66%32%46%54%24%25%35%16%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.