| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22942 |
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Could Bright-Red Utah Go 'Blue' For First Time in 52 Years? Clinton Starts-Off Tied With Trump:
In a state that Republican Mitt Romney carried with 72% of the vote in 2012, that John McCain carried with 63% of the vote in 2008, that George W. Bush carried with 73% of the vote in 2004 and 67% of the vote in 2000, that Bob Dole carried with 54% of the vote in 1996, Republican Donald Trump today can only manage to tie Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 35% for each major-party candidate, as the primary season ends and the general election season begins, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 13% today, 5 months until votes are counted; 16% of likely voters are undecided; and 1% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will stay home and not vote. At this hour, 65% of all Utah voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. That negative yard-marker grows from 43% among very conservative voters, to 56% among somewhat conservative voters, to 74% among moderates, to 90% among somewhat liberal voters, to 93% among very liberal voters. The only thing that Trump has going for him is that Clinton is liked even less. Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 67% of all voters, including 95% of very conservative voters, 86% of somewhat conservative voters, 55% of moderates, 25% of liberals and 20% of very liberal voters. When all Utah voters are asked to rate the quality of candidates for public office in 2016, just 5% say the quality is excellent, 72% say the quality is fair or poor. In the contest for President, Trump leads in Congressional District #1, trails in Congressional District #3, and runs effectively even with Clinton in Congressional District #2 and #4. Trump leads by 19 points among Mormon voters, Clinton leads by 15 points among Non-Mormon voters, and by 38 points among voters who are not a member of an organized religion. Trump leads by 12 among voters with a high school education. Clinton leads by 9 among voters with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads by 5 among men; Clinton leads by 5 among women. A separate analysis has been prepared for the Mia Love vs Doug Owens general election in Utah's 4th Congressional District. About: SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 1,725 registered voters from the state of Utah, which included an oversample of 300 voters from Utah's 4th Congressional District, using registration based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Once the 4th Congressional District was weighted to its correct proportion of the state, a representative universe of 1,425 registered voters was analyzed. Of them, 1,238 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, Governor and United States Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (82% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents; 18% of likely November voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: interviews for this survey were conducted during a week when Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were in the news in a positive light, celebrating Clinton's clinching of the party's nomination for President, and at a time when Donald Trump and the Republican Party were in the news in a mostly negative light, having to do with Trump's comments about a federal judge. The Trump-Clinton contest can be expected to evolve during the 5 months between now and when votes are counted. Context: The last Democrat to carry Utah was Lyndon Baines Johnson, who in 1964 carried 44 states including Utah's then 4 Electoral Votes. Republican Richard Nixon carried Utah with 56% of the vote in 1968 and 68% of the vote in 1972; Republican Gerald Ford carried Utah with 62% of the vote in 1976; Republican Ronald Reagan carried Utah with 73% of the vote in 1980 and with 75% of the vote in 1984; George Herbert Walker Bush carried Utah with 66% of the vote in 1988 and 43% of the vote in 1992. |
| 1 | If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and these three names were on the ballot who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Or Libertarian Gary Johnson? |
| 1238 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 35% | 38% | 32% | 16% | 31% | 37% | 41% | 27% | 39% | 41% | 33% | 20% | 78% | 55% | 42% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 64% | 51% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 42% | 42% | 30% | 39% | 36% | 31% | 34% | 36% | 35% |
| Hillary Clinton (D) | 35% | 33% | 37% | 26% | 28% | 37% | 40% | 28% | 38% | 22% | 48% | 58% | 1% | 7% | 8% | 39% | 78% | 86% | 97% | 2% | 12% | 49% | 85% | 88% | 30% | 28% | 39% | 32% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 19% | 38% |
| Gary Johnson (L) | 13% | 15% | 12% | 32% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 22% | 9% | 14% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 10% | 25% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 13% |
| Undecided | 16% | 13% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 14% | 11% | 22% | 13% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 27% | 23% | 14% | 8% | 7% | 0% | 17% | 21% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 28% | 13% |
| Will Not Vote | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 8% | 23% | 35% | 34% | 31% | 69% | 58% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 19% | 22% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 23% | 29% | 25% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 32% | 58% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 27% | 18% | 82% |
| 2 | Is your mind made up? Or might you change your mind between now and November? |
| 1044 Likely November Voters Who Are Not Undecided | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Mind Is Made Up | 71% | 71% | 70% | 51% | 60% | 73% | 79% | 57% | 76% | 67% | 77% | 73% | 81% | 60% | 58% | 53% | 68% | 90% | 97% | 74% | 62% | 64% | 81% | 90% | 79% | 68% | 71% | 71% | 72% | 68% | 71% | 63% | 72% |
| Might Change Your Mind | 26% | 27% | 24% | 40% | 37% | 24% | 18% | 38% | 21% | 30% | 20% | 21% | 18% | 35% | 38% | 44% | 27% | 6% | 1% | 21% | 36% | 33% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 29% | 24% | 32% | 25% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters Who Are Not Undecided | 100% | 52% | 48% | 7% | 22% | 36% | 35% | 29% | 71% | 54% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 31% | 59% | 25% | 25% | 23% | 28% | 16% | 84% |
| 3 | OK, what if the November general election for President of the United States were today, and these three names were on the ballot: who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Bernie Sanders? Or Libertarian Gary Johnson? |
| 1238 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 35% | 38% | 32% | 18% | 32% | 36% | 40% | 29% | 38% | 41% | 33% | 18% | 76% | 54% | 45% | 21% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 65% | 50% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 39% | 36% | 30% | 36% | 36% | 35% |
| Bernie Sanders (D) | 37% | 36% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 34% | 38% | 36% | 25% | 45% | 62% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 41% | 78% | 83% | 83% | 6% | 16% | 51% | 74% | 92% | 33% | 33% | 40% | 32% | 40% | 37% | 38% | 29% | 39% |
| Gary Johnson (L) | 12% | 14% | 10% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 18% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 24% | 22% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 11% |
| Undecided | 14% | 11% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 19% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 23% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 10% | 2% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 17% | 13% | 19% | 13% |
| Will Not Vote | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 8% | 23% | 35% | 34% | 31% | 69% | 58% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 19% | 22% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 23% | 29% | 25% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 32% | 58% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 27% | 18% | 82% |
| 4 | Is your mind made up? Or might you change your mind between now and November? |
| 1064 Likely November Voters Who Are Not Undecided | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Mind Is Made Up | 71% | 73% | 69% | 67% | 63% | 73% | 76% | 64% | 74% | 65% | 78% | 78% | 83% | 62% | 58% | 66% | 75% | 79% | 91% | 71% | 63% | 69% | 79% | 92% | 76% | 71% | 70% | 72% | 75% | 69% | 68% | 69% | 71% |
| Might Change Your Mind | 25% | 23% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 22% | 20% | 32% | 21% | 31% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 21% | 16% | 7% | 25% | 31% | 27% | 18% | 7% | 19% | 26% | 25% | 24% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 26% | 24% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters Who Are Not Undecided | 100% | 52% | 48% | 8% | 23% | 36% | 33% | 31% | 69% | 55% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 17% | 22% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 32% | 58% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 28% | 17% | 83% |
| 5 | How much of an impact will your candidate's choice of running mate influence your support? |
| 1238 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| A Lot | 27% | 22% | 32% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 31% | 25% | 18% | 30% | 36% | 27% | 28% | 20% | 21% | 17% | 36% | 29% | 26% | 16% | 13% | 34% | 30% | 24% | 30% | 26% | 28% | 25% | 20% | 28% |
| A Little | 46% | 49% | 42% | 62% | 50% | 43% | 42% | 53% | 42% | 45% | 45% | 48% | 38% | 44% | 52% | 40% | 54% | 48% | 41% | 36% | 50% | 51% | 47% | 43% | 38% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 45% | 55% | 44% |
| Not At All | 24% | 26% | 23% | 14% | 19% | 28% | 27% | 18% | 27% | 21% | 27% | 32% | 30% | 18% | 18% | 23% | 24% | 29% | 42% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 35% | 44% | 22% | 22% | 26% | 20% | 24% | 26% | 27% | 18% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 8% | 23% | 35% | 34% | 31% | 69% | 58% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 19% | 22% | 10% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 23% | 29% | 25% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 32% | 58% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 27% | 18% | 82% |
| 6 | Is your opinion of Donald Trump ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of him? |
| 1425 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Favorable | 20% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 21% | 19% | 21% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 50% | 22% | 22% | 17% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 34% | 26% | 13% | 4% | 4% | 32% | 26% | 13% | 21% | 22% | 19% | 18% | 29% | 17% |
| Unfavorable | 65% | 61% | 69% | 80% | 65% | 64% | 61% | 69% | 63% | 63% | 61% | 75% | 29% | 58% | 59% | 66% | 92% | 89% | 96% | 43% | 56% | 74% | 90% | 93% | 50% | 57% | 73% | 63% | 62% | 68% | 66% | 58% | 67% |
| Neutral | 14% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 7% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 21% | 16% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 14% |
| No Opinion | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 25% | 34% | 32% | 34% | 66% | 59% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 23% | 29% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 33% | 57% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 20% | 80% |
| 7 | Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of her? |
| 1425 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Favorable | 21% | 20% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 23% | 29% | 12% | 26% | 13% | 34% | 36% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 20% | 45% | 69% | 76% | 2% | 7% | 27% | 56% | 61% | 23% | 18% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 19% | 24% | 11% | 24% |
| Unfavorable | 67% | 69% | 65% | 75% | 76% | 66% | 60% | 76% | 63% | 79% | 52% | 48% | 95% | 91% | 91% | 64% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 95% | 86% | 55% | 25% | 20% | 68% | 73% | 64% | 71% | 65% | 70% | 62% | 79% | 64% |
| Neutral | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 14% | 16% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 14% | 28% | 15% | 15% | 2% | 7% | 18% | 19% | 18% | 6% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 11% |
| No Opinion | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 25% | 34% | 32% | 34% | 66% | 59% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 23% | 29% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 33% | 57% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 20% | 80% |
| 8 | In general, is the quality of candidates running for public office this year ... Excellent? Good? Fair? Or poor? |
| 1425 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Excellent | 5% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Good | 21% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 15% | 22% | 26% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 12% | 39% | 28% | 19% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 31% | 27% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 23% | 20% | 21% | 19% | 20% | 25% | 16% | 23% |
| Fair | 35% | 33% | 37% | 26% | 35% | 35% | 37% | 32% | 36% | 33% | 40% | 35% | 27% | 34% | 34% | 30% | 45% | 46% | 35% | 29% | 33% | 39% | 41% | 39% | 35% | 33% | 36% | 31% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| Poor | 37% | 38% | 36% | 53% | 42% | 37% | 28% | 45% | 33% | 34% | 36% | 47% | 19% | 32% | 39% | 58% | 43% | 33% | 37% | 28% | 33% | 42% | 45% | 41% | 35% | 37% | 37% | 40% | 38% | 37% | 32% | 52% | 33% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 25% | 34% | 32% | 34% | 66% | 59% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 23% | 29% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 33% | 57% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 20% | 80% |
| 9 | The next President may have the chance to nominate one or more justices to the Supreme Court of the United States. Does this make you ... more likely to vote for Donald Trump? More likely to vote for Hillary Clinton? Or does it make no difference either way? |
| 1425 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Religion | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Region | Cell Phone / Lan | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Mormon | Non-Morm | No Relig | Strong R | Republic | Indy Lea | Independ | Indy Lea | Democrat | Strong D | Very Con | Somewhat | Moderate | Somewhat | Very Lib | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | CD 1 | CD 2 | CD 3 | CD 4 | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| More Likely To Vote For Donald Trump | 40% | 46% | 34% | 34% | 40% | 41% | 41% | 39% | 41% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 80% | 60% | 53% | 28% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 70% | 56% | 26% | 3% | 4% | 41% | 43% | 38% | 44% | 40% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% |
| More Likely To Vote For Hillary Clinton | 30% | 28% | 32% | 21% | 25% | 32% | 34% | 24% | 33% | 17% | 46% | 53% | 1% | 6% | 8% | 26% | 77% | 80% | 92% | 4% | 11% | 39% | 75% | 87% | 28% | 24% | 35% | 26% | 34% | 28% | 32% | 19% | 33% |
| Makes No Difference | 25% | 22% | 29% | 30% | 30% | 23% | 22% | 30% | 23% | 29% | 18% | 22% | 16% | 27% | 34% | 41% | 17% | 16% | 4% | 21% | 27% | 31% | 20% | 8% | 23% | 29% | 23% | 25% | 22% | 29% | 24% | 31% | 24% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 4% | 5% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 25% | 34% | 32% | 34% | 66% | 59% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 23% | 29% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 33% | 57% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 20% | 80% |