Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22942
 
Could Bright-Red Utah Go 'Blue' For First Time in 52 Years? Clinton Starts-Off Tied With Trump:

In a state that Republican Mitt Romney carried with 72% of the vote in 2012, that John McCain carried with 63% of the vote in 2008, that George W. Bush carried with 73% of the vote in 2004 and 67% of the vote in 2000, that Bob Dole carried with 54% of the vote in 1996, Republican Donald Trump today can only manage to tie Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 35% for each major-party candidate, as the primary season ends and the general election season begins, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 13% today, 5 months until votes are counted; 16% of likely voters are undecided; and 1% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will stay home and not vote.

At this hour, 65% of all Utah voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. That negative yard-marker grows from 43% among very conservative voters, to 56% among somewhat conservative voters, to 74% among moderates, to 90% among somewhat liberal voters, to 93% among very liberal voters. The only thing that Trump has going for him is that Clinton is liked even less. Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 67% of all voters, including 95% of very conservative voters, 86% of somewhat conservative voters, 55% of moderates, 25% of liberals and 20% of very liberal voters. When all Utah voters are asked to rate the quality of candidates for public office in 2016, just 5% say the quality is excellent, 72% say the quality is fair or poor.

In the contest for President, Trump leads in Congressional District #1, trails in Congressional District #3, and runs effectively even with Clinton in Congressional District #2 and #4. Trump leads by 19 points among Mormon voters, Clinton leads by 15 points among Non-Mormon voters, and by 38 points among voters who are not a member of an organized religion. Trump leads by 12 among voters with a high school education. Clinton leads by 9 among voters with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads by 5 among men; Clinton leads by 5 among women.

A separate analysis has been prepared for the Mia Love vs Doug Owens general election in Utah's 4th Congressional District.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 1,725 registered voters from the state of Utah, which included an oversample of 300 voters from Utah's 4th Congressional District, using registration based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Once the 4th Congressional District was weighted to its correct proportion of the state, a representative universe of 1,425 registered voters was analyzed. Of them, 1,238 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, Governor and United States Senator. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (82% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents; 18% of likely November voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: interviews for this survey were conducted during a week when Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were in the news in a positive light, celebrating Clinton's clinching of the party's nomination for President, and at a time when Donald Trump and the Republican Party were in the news in a mostly negative light, having to do with Trump's comments about a federal judge. The Trump-Clinton contest can be expected to evolve during the 5 months between now and when votes are counted.

Context: The last Democrat to carry Utah was Lyndon Baines Johnson, who in 1964 carried 44 states including Utah's then 4 Electoral Votes. Republican Richard Nixon carried Utah with 56% of the vote in 1968 and 68% of the vote in 1972; Republican Gerald Ford carried Utah with 62% of the vote in 1976; Republican Ronald Reagan carried Utah with 73% of the vote in 1980 and with 75% of the vote in 1984; George Herbert Walker Bush carried Utah with 66% of the vote in 1988 and 43% of the vote in 1992.
 
1If the November general election for President of the United States were today, and these three names were on the ballot who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
1238 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Donald Trump (R)43524119416911591701073282929147149126114257421831795662511662121161099411681354
Hillary Clinton (D)432206226268116116410732516113313831621481329611274215012899371112819610910512344389
Gary Johnson (L)165947132524932858110328331723673217424354477812431094538374537128
Undecided194811132463604787107153241821636117138048735110320661064439615064131
Will Not Vote1147216338703125200033500146053429
Total12386276111002894344153898497152772391902302691241701121162833513091511121203917143013002993382271011
Composition of Likely November Voters100%51%49%8%23%35%34%31%69%58%22%19%15%19%22%10%14%9%9%23%29%25%12%9%10%32%58%24%24%24%27%18%82%
 
2Is your mind made up? Or might you change your mind between now and November?
1044 Likely November Voters Who Are Not UndecidedAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Mind Is Made Up7373883493913527329117356437619416213710112156107941111741711661149879220429182188163204103634
Might Change Your Mind269148120308390661131551715046315879474272511008419915911606565696952216
Not Sure381028781211152315813288483211788251318107714830
Total104454649876225374368301742563253221169167208107157104115235278258141109100324608257261238288163881
Composition of Likely November Voters Who Are Not Undecided100%52%48%7%22%36%35%29%71%54%24%21%16%16%20%10%15%10%11%23%27%25%14%11%10%31%59%25%25%23%28%16%84%
 
3OK, what if the November general election for President of the United States were today, and these three names were on the ballot: who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Bernie Sanders? Or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
1238 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Donald Trump (R)43623819718941561671123242949344145125120265431851765771491622171171089112082354
Bernie Sanders (D)45622423238109165143147308180125149828385113292961657157112104401282859612111012865391
Gary Johnson (L)1528963294248337181953027152165271054395138144943994232403837114
Undecided174701051542556158117133271521523919198938635114218521034534504543132
Will Not Vote2171401910120142414703235463246101587020
Total12386276111002894344153898497152772391902302691241701121162833513091511121203917143013002993382271011
Composition of Likely November Voters100%51%49%8%23%35%34%31%69%58%22%19%15%19%22%10%14%9%9%23%29%25%12%9%10%32%58%24%24%24%27%18%82%
 
4Is your mind made up? Or might you change your mind between now and November?
1064 Likely November Voters Who Are Not UndecidedAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Mind Is Made Up7564093475715427726821154638019617514011113369113839717318217810710277241430185199172200128629
Might Change Your Mind262128135268184721071551794439265786303217762907025819881536153687949214
Not Sure452125211181413322410104101165521017104151128913913837
Total106455750685246378354331733583250224169178230105151104106245288258136110102339611256265249293184880
Composition of Likely November Voters Who Are Not Undecided100%52%48%8%23%36%33%31%69%55%24%21%16%17%22%10%14%10%10%23%27%24%13%10%10%32%58%24%25%23%28%17%83%
 
5How much of an impact will your candidate's choice of running mate influence your support?
1238 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
A Lot332136197207811711897235219704258847234332420103101812514411161718977828445287
A Little566310256621441851752063603241251137210113950925447103177158704846178337142142131151125442
Not At All303165138145612011470233152747658414829413248696558524927861896171789240263
Not Sure3616205101281521218835101032188124171118998101719
Total12386276111002894344153898497152772391902302691241701121162833513091511121203917143013002993382271011
Composition of Likely November Voters100%51%49%8%23%35%34%31%69%58%22%19%15%19%22%10%14%9%9%23%29%25%12%9%10%32%58%24%24%24%27%18%82%
 
6Is your opinion of Donald Trump ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of him?
1425 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Favorable280156124147594978919116469451046270253921101074665491201077375676681199
Unfavorable924427497102228310283330594530186203601641919917010511213923027015110976259581222214245242162762
Neutral19910990114272745314613146204252572110436667431032470994653475434165
No Opinion228140678715135344631006940049911316418
Total14257007251283514844624799468393052722102823251491851181173214143631681171534587963513453603682821143
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%9%25%34%32%34%66%59%22%19%15%20%23%11%13%8%8%23%29%26%12%8%11%33%57%25%24%25%26%20%80%
 
7Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of her?
1425 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Favorable306137168223711113659247105103976653084818973198937136811866879708931275
Unfavorable95748547296266319276362595661158131200256297954919113053541984324103333509250226252230224733
Neutral1557382104451505410170424331723215118177296432219441003340384426130
No Opinion743042143431030210020300511210516
Total14257007251283514844624799468393052722102823251491851181173214143631681171534587963513453603682821143
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%9%25%34%32%34%66%59%22%19%15%20%23%11%13%8%8%23%29%26%12%8%11%33%57%25%24%25%26%20%80%
 
8In general, is the quality of candidates running for public office this year ... Excellent? Good? Fair? Or poor?
1425 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
Excellent75364002421312451491116311015606634181625102441222213181462
Good305160144245410412278226210593282786212221725101112492018341051617266739346258
Fair49823226633122172172155343275122965697111448354419213814169455415028810912413013570428
Poor5242662596814618013021431028710912739901278679394389137152754754169297141131135118147377
Not Sure2361626788151832279001159511211107394518
Total14257007251283514844624799468393052722102823251491851181173214143631681171534587963513453603682821143
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%9%25%34%32%34%66%59%22%19%15%20%23%11%13%8%8%23%29%26%12%8%11%33%57%25%24%25%26%20%80%
 
9The next President may have the chance to nominate one or more justices to the Supreme Court of the United States. Does this make you ... more likely to vote for Donald Trump? More likely to vote for Hillary Clinton? Or does it make no difference either way?
1425 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+ReligionParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationRegionCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 2.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+MormonNon-MormNo ReligStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibHigh SchSome Col4-year CCD 1CD 2CD 3CD 4Cell PhoLandline
More Likely To Vote For Donald Trump572325247441421991871863864001036416716917142545225231965563195305156139137140111461
More Likely To Vote For Hillary Clinton43119723427891571581163151451401453162539141941071345142125101431092769311910011952379
Makes No Difference358151207391061131001452132425461347511261321956811211233103613418489771038989270
Not Sure632637181415163231519262218860015251351112031141119203034
Total14257007251283514844624799468393052722102823251491851181173214143631681171534587963513453603682821143
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%9%25%34%32%34%66%59%22%19%15%20%23%11%13%8%8%23%29%26%12%8%11%33%57%25%24%25%26%20%80%