Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16875
 
KS Primary Eve: Can Moran Hold-On in GOP Senate Nomination Fight? Or Will Tiahrt's Late Charge Fuel A Come-From-Behind Win?

In a Republican Primary for US Senate in Kansas today, 08/02/10, 36 hours until votes are counted, Todd Tiahrt continues to gain ground on Jerry Moran, with a close finish possible, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV in Wichita.

Today it's Moran 49%, Tiahrt 39%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Tiahrt is up 3 points; Moran is down 1. Tiahrt has gained 10 points in the past 2 months, while Moran has treaded water. Tiahrt's 39% of the vote today is his highest in 16 months of SurveyUSA tracking. Tiahrt has caught up to Moran among men and among voters under age 50, and he now edges Moran by 5 points among conservatives. Two months ago, Moran led by 21 points among conservatives. Moran continues to hold double-digit leads among both women and voters age 50+. Most ominous for Moran: Among the 17% of voters who report they have already cast their ballots, Tiahrt is nominally ahead, 46% to 43%. Among those who tell SurveyUSA they are likely to vote, but have not yet done so, Moran leads by 13.

 
Any Outcome Remains Possible in Democratic US Senate Primary: 1 in 4 likely voters in the Democratic primary for US Senate remain undecided, hours before polls open. Today, college professor Lisa Johnston gets 29%; retired businessman Charles Schollenberger gets 21%. Because Johnston's support is so young, and because young voters historically are the least reliable, the contest is likely closer than these numbers suggest. For example: the contest is tied at 23% among voters who have already returned a ballot. What supporters of State Senator David Haley, retiree Bob Conroy, and attorney Patrick Wiesner do in the voting booth will help determine whether Johnston or Schollenberger is the nominee. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 weeks ago, Johnston and Schollenberger each have identical momentum.
 
No Surprises in GOP Gov Primary as Brownback Advances: In a Republican Primary for Kansas Governor today, 08/02/10, Sam Brownback and running mate Jeff Colyer defeat the ticket of Joan Heffington and Mark Holick by 57 points, essentially unchanged from previous SurveyUSA polling.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,600 Kansas adults 07/29/10 through 08/01/10. Of them, 2,234 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 837 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 08/03/10 Republican Primary; 441 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 08/03/10 Democratic Primary. Advance voting began on 07/15/10.
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Jerry Moran? Todd Tiahrt? Tom Little? Or Robert Londerholm?
837 Likely & Actual GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Moran49%47%52%36%48%53%54%44%53%51%******43%51%49%****43%63%**42%65%55%56%50%49%50%48%48%45%60%50%52%52%49%51%35%70%
Tiahrt39%42%37%50%43%36%33%45%35%38%******46%38%39%****48%23%**51%11%32%29%39%40%40%39%37%45%26%40%35%34%41%36%54%22%
Little3%3%3%3%2%3%4%3%3%3%******3%3%3%****1%6%**1%9%4%4%4%2%3%2%4%2%6%2%5%4%2%3%3%1%
Londerholm2%2%2%3%2%1%2%2%2%2%******2%2%2%****2%2%**1%5%3%1%2%1%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%3%1%2%
Undecided6%5%7%8%5%6%7%6%7%7%******5%7%6%****6%6%**5%10%5%10%6%7%5%10%8%6%7%6%6%9%5%7%6%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters100%56%44%14%30%30%27%43%57%93%2%3%1%17%83%100%0%0%63%29%5%53%13%24%9%53%47%68%18%14%68%30%61%35%34%66%48%33%19%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Bob Conroy? David Haley? Lisa Johnston? Charles Schollenberger? Or Patrick Wiesner?
441 Likely & Actual Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Conroy7%11%5%10%4%7%9%6%8%7%6%****16%6%**7%8%8%7%6%9%5%9%7%5%9%7%10%5%8%7%9%5%6%8%6%8%10%
Haley12%12%12%15%14%11%11%14%11%12%36%****16%12%**12%14%11%17%8%13%14%11%6%15%10%13%14%10%14%11%9%16%11%13%13%12%9%
Johnston29%24%32%49%30%27%19%37%23%27%25%****23%29%**31%18%19%24%44%30%29%20%31%27%29%26%25%35%18%34%25%32%30%28%24%34%28%
Schollenberger21%26%18%7%14%27%27%11%27%22%7%****23%20%**21%21%19%24%18%12%23%24%25%23%19%23%23%17%24%21%23%20%20%23%21%20%21%
Wiesner6%5%7%5%9%6%5%7%5%7%1%****9%6%**6%7%8%6%5%2%7%11%2%5%7%5%7%6%8%5%7%6%6%7%8%3%9%
Undecided25%23%26%15%30%22%29%25%25%26%24%****13%27%**23%32%35%22%19%33%22%24%29%25%26%26%22%27%28%22%27%21%27%21%28%22%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Democratic Primary Voters100%40%60%14%26%33%28%39%61%87%5%3%5%12%88%0%79%21%16%43%32%22%49%18%11%45%55%47%24%29%33%64%48%50%45%55%47%39%14%
 
 
[Candidate names rotated]
Kansas Republicans will also vote in a primary election for Governor. If the Republican Primary for Kansas Governor were today, which ticket would you vote for? The ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer? Or The ticket of Joan Heffington and Mark Holick?
837 Likely & Actual GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherYesNoRepublicDemocratUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Brownback/Colyer75%77%72%78%79%73%70%79%72%76%******72%75%75%****83%64%**83%40%76%74%73%77%78%70%64%84%55%75%74%78%73%74%73%80%
Heffington/Holick18%16%21%10%14%21%24%13%22%18%******20%18%18%****11%30%**12%51%16%11%20%16%16%21%25%11%34%19%17%17%19%20%19%13%
Undecided7%6%7%12%7%5%6%9%6%6%******7%7%7%****6%6%**4%9%8%15%6%7%5%8%12%5%11%6%9%5%8%6%9%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual GOP Primary Voters100%56%44%14%30%30%27%43%57%93%2%3%1%17%83%100%0%0%63%29%5%53%13%24%9%53%47%68%18%14%68%30%61%35%34%66%48%33%19%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.