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58% in USA Following Ebola News ‘Very’ Closely; 19% ‘Very’ Concerned They Will Catch Ebola; 24% Have Already Changed Daily Routine

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 3 days ago

In the middle of rapidly unfolding news events, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 USA adults to measure nationwide public opinion on the Ebola virus. The research was conducted for Gannett Broadcasting. The findings:

58% in USA are following new stories about the Ebola virus “very” closely. An additional 33% are following “somewhat” closely. Total: 91% following.
19% of Americans are “very” concerned that they may catch Ebola. An additional 29% are “somewhat” concerned. Total: 48% concerned.
24% of Americans have already changed a part of their daily routine to avoid catching Ebola.
78% of Americans say the federal government needs to do more to protect Americans from the disease.
47% of Americans say the country is prepared to deal with isolated cases of Ebola.
But 73% say America is not prepared to deal with a widespread outbreak of Ebola.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included in this research, which was conducted 10/14/14 through 10/15/14.

For First Time, Democrat Nunn Now Narrowly In Front of Republican Perdue in US Senate Fight; GA Governor Contest Tied

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 5 days ago

Michelle Nunn has not led in the contest for United States Senator from Georgia in 4 previous WXIA-TV tracking polls. But now she does. According to new 11Alive polling, conducted by SurveyUSA, it’s Nunn 48%, Republican David Perdue 45%, with Libertarian Amanda Swafford grabbing just enough votes to possibly force a runoff, 3 weeks until votes in the general election are counted.

Week-on-week, Nunn has gained ground among men, where she now trails by 3. (Five weeks ago, she trailed among men by 19.) Among Independents, Nunn has closed to within 6 of Perdue (she had trailed by 28 points among Independents in August). In greater Atlanta, Nunn had led by as few as 10 points, but today leads by 22.

The contest for Governor of Georgia is tied today, 46% for Republican Nathan Deal, 46% for Democrat Jason Carter. The contest has been effectively tied the last 4 times SurveyUSA has looked at the race. Every vote is critical. Deal maintains 63% of the white vote. Carter now gets 83% of the black vote, a new tracking-poll high. Libertarian Andre Hunt polls at 4% today, which, in a contest this close, would trigger a January 2015 runoff.

For School Superintendent, Democrat Valarie Wilson has today caught Republican Richard Woods, 46% Wilson, 46% Woods.
For Attorney General, Democrat Greg Hecht continues to make inroads against Republican Sam Olens, and today trails Olens by just 3 points, 46% to 43%.
For Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, Republican Casey Cagle today is 7 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 49% to 42%. Cagle has never trailed.
For Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp today leads Democrat Doreen Carter 48% to 41%. Kemp has never trailed.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 10/10/14 through 10/13/14. Of the adults, 710 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 563 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The US Senate seat is open. Republican Saxby Chambliss has retired. A Democratic win would represent a pick-up, and would have national significance.

For 3rd Consecutive Week, Democrat Crist Atop Incumbent Republican Scott in Florida Governor’s Contest

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 5 days ago

Charlie Crist is 4 points in front of Rick Scott, according to WFLA-TV’s weekly tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Crist today gets 45%, Scott 41%.

On 09/30/14, Crist led by 6 points. On 10/07/14, Crist led by 2 points. Today, Crist leads by 4 points. In 8 tracking polls going back to August 2014, Scott has led 4 times, Crist has led 4 times. Week-on-week, favorable and unfavorable opinions of the two candidates are unchanged.

Support for Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, is comparatively flat at 52%, but opposition to Amendment 2 is up to 36%, a new high. 60% is required for passage. 12% today are undecided. If those 12% do not vote on this measure, Amendment 2 gets 59.44% on Election Day and fails. If the 12% undecided “break” 3:2 in favor of Amendment 2, the measure passes with 60.32% of the vote. If the undecided voters “split” 50/50, the measure fails.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents are included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults 10/10/14 through 10/13/14. Of the adults, 667 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 566 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on a home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In CO, Both Top-of-Ticket Contests Remain Too-Close-To-Call, 3 Wks to Election Day; GOP Candidates Benefit from Strong Anti-Obama Sentiment:

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 6 days ago

A handful of Colorado voters may determine control of the United States Senate in the next Congress, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Denver Post. Republican challenger Cory Gardner today runs a whisker in front of Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, 45% for Gardner, 43% for Udall, well within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, and close enough to still go either way.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Gardner is up 3 points, Udall is down 3 points. Udall had nominally led by 4, today nominally trails by 2. The teeter-totter could easily tip again between now and Election Day. The seesaw is illustrated in this interactive tracking graph, which shows Gardner trailing by 9 points one month ago among voters age 18 to 49, and today leading by 9 points among that same 18-to-49 sub-population. Among Independent voters, Gardner had trailed by 10, now is even. In greater Denver, Gardner had trailed by 19, now trails by 6, a gain of 13 percentage points.

Compared to a month ago, Udall’s favorable numbers are down, his unfavorable numbers are up. Back then, he had been Minus 7. Today, he is Minus 12. (37% favorable, compared to 49% unfavorable). Compared to a month ago, Gardner’s favorable and unfavorable numbers are up. Back then, he had been Net Zero, Today he is Plus 5. (43% favorable, compared to 38% unfavorable). On the issue of which candidate for Senate is more trustworthy, Gardner had trailed by 2, now leads by 4.

Of less national significance, but of greater local importance, is the contest for Governor of Colorado. There, poll-on-poll, Incumbent Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper has gone from a nominal 2-point advantage over Republican challenger Bob Beauprez on 09/11/14 to a 1-point nominal advantage today, 10/13/14. Then, the contest was too-close-to-call. Now the contest remains too-close-to-call. Unlike the Senate race, where there has been movement to the Republican, and the only question is how much, here, the 1-point of nominal movement to Beauprez may be what is sometimes referred to as “statistical noise,” and may mean nothing. Both candidates remain well-positioned to win. A handful of votes could determine the outcome.

Beauprez has closed on Hickenlooper in greater Denver. Hickenlooper had led in greater Denver by 17 points, now by just 5. But there is offsetting movement to Hickenlooper in those Colorado communities not attached to Denver and not attached to Colorado Springs — what SurveyUSA calls here, for ease of labeling, “the rest of Colorado.” In the rest of Colorado, Beauprez had led by 13 points, today trails by 4, a 17-point left turn. Among conservatives today, Beauprez leads 14:1, up from 7:1. Among seniors today, Beauprez leads by 8 points, up from 2 points. Hickenlooper is backed by less educated and less affluent voters.

Beauprez’s Net Favorability Rating has changed ever-so-slightly from Plus 4, one month ago, to Net Zero today. Then as now, 38% of voters have a favorable opinion of him. Then, 34% had an unfavorable opinion of Beauprez, now 38%. Hickenlooper’s Net Favorability Rating has changed ever-so-slightly from Minus 1, one month ago, to Minus 3 today. Then as now, 47% of likely voters had an unfavorable opinion of Hickenlooper. Today, 44% have a favorable opinion, down from 46%.

How much does President Obama’s shadow hang over Colorado’s top-of-ticket contests? Statewide, 17% of likely voters strongly approve of the job Obama is doing as President, compared to 46% who strongly disapprove. Of voters who say their feelings about President Obama are a major factor in how they vote in 2014, 73% strongly disapprove of the job the President is doing. Of voters who say their feelings about President Obama are a major factor in how they vote in 2014, 68% vote Republican in the Senate race, 69% vote Republican in the Governor race. Of voters who say that Obama is not at all a factor in how they vote in 2014, 64% vote Democratic in the Senate race, 66% vote Democratic in the Governor’s race.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Colorado adults 10/09/14 through 10/12/14. Of the adults, 657 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 591 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote on or before Election Day, 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Ballots began to be mailed to voters 10/13/2014; in-person voting begins 10/20/2014.

In Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Peterson, Going for 13th Term, Leads GOP Challenger Westrom

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 10 days ago

4 weeks until votes are counted in Minnesota’s 7th US Congressional District, 12-term incumbent DFL candidate Collin Peterson narrowly leads Republican challenger Torrey Westrom, 50% to 41%, according to a KSTP-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

49% of likely voters approve of the job that Peterson is doing in the US House of Representatives; 38% disapprove. That gives the Congressman, first elected in 1990, a Plus 11 Net Favorability Rating. Moderates break 2:1 for the incumbent. 23% of conservatives vote for the incumbent.

Voters tell SurveyUSA that health care is the most important issue in this contest, and on the issue of health care, Peterson leads Westrom by 11 points. On the issue of foreign policy, Westrom leads by 23 points. On the issue of taxes, Westrom leads by 13 points.

The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, is Minus 20 in the district: 57% of voters disapprove of the act, compared to 37% who approve. Of voters who disapprove of Obamacare, Westrom leads Peterson 3:1.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District 10/03/14 through 10/06/14, using Registration Based Sample (aka: voter-list sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 545 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Voters reachable on a home telephone (83% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Voters not reachable on a home telephone (17% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the interview was concluded.

In SD Senate, Pressler and Weiland Continue to Split Anti-Rounds Vote, Possibly Paving Way for Rounds Election with Less than 40%

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 11 days ago

In the 3-way slug-fest that is the 2014 US Senate contest in South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds today is backed by just 35% of voters, 4 weeks till votes are counted, but maybe, just maybe, that’s enough to get him elected and enough to help Republicans take control of the US Senate, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSFY-TV, KOTA-TV and the Aberdeen American.

The contest stands: Rounds 35%, Independent Larry Pressler 32%, Democrat Rick Weiland 28% and Independent Gordon Howie 3%. Weiland and Pressler continue to hurt each other’s chances and, however unintentionally, help Rounds win. When Weiland voters are asked what they would do if Weiland were not on the ballot, 71% say they would vote for Pressler, 9% say they would vote for Rounds. That means, if Weiland were not on the ballot, Pressler would defeat Rounds today 54% to 39%. When Pressler voters are asked what they would do if Pressler were not on the ballot, 52% say they would vote for Weiland, 31% say they would vote for Rounds. That means, if Pressler were not on the ballot today, Rounds and Weiland would tie, 47% to 47%.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Rounds is down 4 points, Pressler is up 7 points, Weiland is flat. With both Pressler and Weiland on the ballot, Rounds is supported by just 55% of his Republican party base. Pressler is supported by 31% of Republicans, 44% of Independents and 28% of Democrats. Weiland is supported by 60% of Democrats, 20% of independents and 9% of Republicans. Rounds is backed by 56% of conservatives, 20% of moderates and 11% of liberals. Pressler is backed by 26% of conservatives, 39% of moderates and 31% of liberals. Among voters age 50 to 64, Pressler leads. Among voters age 65+, Rounds leads.

In the election for South Dakota’s representative to the US House, incumbent Republican Kristi Noem today defeats Democratic challenger Corinna Robinson 55% to 37%. A month ago, Noem led by 13 points, today by 18 points.

In the election for South Dakota’s Secretary of State, Republican Shantel Krebs today defeats Democrat Angelia Schultz 43% to 29%, with 3rd-party candidates siphoning 11% of the vote, and 18% of likely voters undecided on the contest.

On Constitutional Amendment Q, which would allow certain types of gambling in the city of Deadwood, Yes leads No 2:1.

Initiated Measure 18, which would increase the state minimum wage, passes 3:1 today. Initiated Measure 17, which would change how insurance companies display health-care providers, Yes leads No 42% to 8% … but half of South Dakota’s likeliest voters say they are not certain how they will vote on 17.

In the election for Governor of South Dakota, incumbent Republican Dennis Daugaard defeats Democrat Susan Wismer by 2:1 today, 59% to 30%. A third of Democrats cross-over and vote for the popular incumbent Republican.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 South Dakota adults 10/01/14 through 10/05/14. Of the adults, 657 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 616 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home (landline) telephone (91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (9% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

In Georgia, 1 Week Till Voting Begins, It’s a 1-Point Race for US Senate, 2-Point Race for Governor, 4-Point Race for School Superintendent

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 11 days ago

In the battle for the open US Senate seat in Georgia, Republican David Perdue can’t manage to pull away from Democrat Michelle Nunn in SurveyUSA’s polling for WXIA-TV in Atlanta. Today, the race stands exactly where it did 2 weeks ago: Perdue 46%, Nunn 45%, close enough to be called “even.”

Nunn holds an exceptionally high 87% of the Democratic base. That is the only way she can remain competitive in a contest where, today, independents break nearly 5:3 for her Republican opponent. Perdue holds 77% of conservatives. That is how he remains competitive in a contest where, today, Nunn leads among moderates by 22 points. Nunn gets to 54% in greater Atlanta, where she leads by 17. Perdue gets to 56% in Northwest GA, where he leads by 23. The candidates split the Southern and Eastern parts of the state.

In the contest for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal today has a 2-point advantage over Democratic challenger Jason Carter, 46% to 44%. That’s a 3-point swing in Deal’s favor compared to 2 weeks ago, when Carter edged Deal, in SurveyUSA polling, 45% to 44%. Consistently, over the past 4 tracking polls, Deal has polled at 50% or 51% among males, and led by 11 to 14 points. Inconsistently, over the past 4 tracking polls, Carter has tried to build a gender-gap advantage among women, where today Carter leads by 7. But Carter is not as strong among women as Deal is among men. Every additional man who turns out helps to re-elect the Governor; every additional woman who turns out helps to unseat the Governor.

In the contest for School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods and Democrat Valarie Wilson remain where they have been for the past month — too close to call. Today, Woods gets 46%, Wilson gets 42%. On 09/09/14, Woods led by 4 points. On 09/23/14, Woods led by 2 points. Today, again, by 4. Voters who support the “Common Core” curriculum back Wilson by 43 points. Those who oppose the Common Core curriculum back Woods by 60 points.

In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle today defeats Democrat Connie Stokes, 51% to 39%.
In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp today defeats Democrat Doreen Carter, 49% to 39%.
In the contest for Attorney General of GA, incumbent Republican Sam Olens today defeats Democrat Greg Hecht 46% to 39%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 825 state of GA adults 10/02/14 through 10/06/14. Of the adults, 714 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 566 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit WXIA-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.

In CA’s 52nd Congressional District, 1 Week Till Voting Begins, GOP Challenger DeMaio May Be Ever-So-Slightly In Front of Incumbent Peters

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 12 days ago

In an election today in California’s 52nd US Congressional District, first-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters must battle to hold his seat, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the U-T San Diego newspaper and KGTV-TV 10News. Today, it’s Republican challenger Scott DeMaio 48%, Peterson 45% — within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, and too close for DeMaio to be considered any kind of odds-on favorite. A narrow victory for either candidate is equally likely.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, DeMaio is up 2 points, Peters is down 2 points. Poll-on-poll, there is movement among men, where the Republican is now up by 12, and there is movement among independent voters, where the Republican is now up by 18. Voters say that “integrity” is the most important issue when filling out their ballot, and on that issue, DeMaio leads narrowly 50% to 46%. Second most important is the issue of “fiscal responsibility,” and on that issue, DeMaio leads overwhelmingly, 81% to 15%.

Peters leads on 3 and DeMaio leads on 2 of the following 5 attributes:

More trustworthy? 48% say DeMaio, 44% say Peters.
Stronger on transportation issues? DeMaio 42%, Peters 40%.
In sync with you on same-sex marriage? Peters 44%, DeMaio 38%.
In sync with you on abortion? Peters 45%, DeMaio 37%.
In sync with you on veterans affairs? Peters 46% to DeMaio’s 43%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from California’s 52nd Congressional District 10/02/14 through 10/06/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, aka: voter list sample) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 542 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone: respondents reachable on a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (11% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the cell phones, secured respondent cooperation, qualified the respondent, asked the survey questions and remained on the phone until the interview was completed. You must credit KGTV-TV and the U-T if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.

Democrat Crist Ahead for 2nd Straight Week in Florida Governor Fight; Medical Marijuana Ever-So-Slowly Rolling Backwards

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 12 days ago

Charlie Crist’s Net Favorability today is Minus 8. Rick Scott’s Net Favorability today is Minus 10.

And that 2-point difference is the difference in the race for governor of Florida at this hour, Crist at 44%, Scott at 42%, Libertarian Adrian Wyllie at 6%, according to the latest WFLA-TV tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA. A week ago, SurveyUSA showed Crist 6 points atop Scott, today 2.

Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana, lost a point week-on-week, which puts support in the past 4 surveys at: 56%, 53%, 52% and now 51%. Opposition stayed flat, at 33%. The measure needs 60% to pass. 15% today are not certain how they will vote on Amendment 2. Depending on what those last 15% do, the measure either becomes law, or goes up in smoke. 62% of young voters back the amendment, compared to 34% of seniors. Twice as many Democrats back the amendment as do Republicans.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of Florida adults 10/02/14 through 10/06/14, with no telephone interviews conducted during the observance of Yom Kippur, which occurred in the middle of the field-period for this survey. Of the adults interviewed, 684 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The ratio of landline to cellphone interviews does not color the Governor’s race to any great extent, but does torque the marijuana amendment considerably. Cell respondents back medical marijuana 3:1. Landline respondents back medical marijuana 5:4. You must credit WFLA-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.

Kansas Turns Its Back on GOP Senator Roberts: Independent Orman Has Legitimate Chance to Pull Off Upset, 4 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 13 days ago

Kansas officials and Kansas courts having at last determined what the ballot will look like in the 11/04/14 general election, Kansas voters say “no” to a 4th term in the US Senate for incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KSN-TV in Wichita. Today, 4 weeks until votes are counted, it’s unknown independent Greg Orman 47%, Roberts 42%. The national implications of the Kansas Senate race, and which party will control the US Senate in the next Congress, overshadow what in any other year would be a much more high-profile possible upset, and that’s the fight for Governor of Kansas.

In the Senate contest, KSN-TV’s most recent poll was 30 days ago, in the middle of turmoil: just after Secretary of State Kris Kobach ruled that Democrat Chad Taylor could not take his name off the ballot. Back then, while offering respondents a chance to still vote for the withdrawn Taylor, SurveyUSA found Orman 1 point ahead of Roberts, 37% to 36%, with Taylor at 10%. Today, without Taylor on the ballot, Orman is up 10 points, Roberts is up 6 points. Then, Libertarian Randall Batson got 6% of the vote, today 4%.

Here’s how the political parties line up today: Roberts holds just 66% of the Republican base. Orman, who declines to say whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans if elected, draws support from 71% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and 27% of Republicans. Orman is backed by 17% of conservatives, 64% of moderates and 69% of liberals. Whether the 17% of conservatives who today tell SurveyUSA they will vote for Orman stay home on Election Day, or do something else on Election Day, may well determine the outcome of the contest.

Voters say that jobs are the most important issue in the Senate contest, and on that issue, Orman leads Roberts by more than 2:1. A smaller number of voters think that Obamacare is the most important issue in the Senate rate, and on that issue, Roberts leads Orman by 2:1. In greater Wichita, Roberts leads Orman by 17 points. In greater Topeka, Orman leads Roberts by 20 points. And in greater Kansas City KS, Orman leads Roberts by 22 points. Roberts leads narrowly among less affluent Kansans. Orman leads decisively among more affluent Kansans.

In the contest for Governor of Kansas, the Democratic challenger ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking leads the incumbent Republican ticket of Sam Brownback and Jeff Colyer 47% to 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Brownback is up 2 points, Davis is flat. Brownback holds 66% of the Republican base (just as does Roberts). 27% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican in the Governor’s race (just as 27% of Democrats do in the Senate race).

Brownback today leads in greater Wichita by 13 points, but trails in greater Kansas City KS by 17 points and trails in greater Topeka by 23 points. Voters tell SurveyUSA that education is the most important issue in the Governor race, and voters focused on education give Davis/Docking an eye-popping 50-point advantage on that issue. Voters who say that tax rates are most important give Brownback/Colyer at 31-point advantage on that issue. The Democratic ticket’s entire lead comes from women. The contest is tied among men. If Brownback survives on election day, it will be because men, down the stretch, rally to his side.

KSN-TV’s last look at the Secretary of State contest occurred during the 3 days immediately after incumbent Republican Kris Kobach inserted himself into the Senate fray. Then, SurveyUSA found Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf 3 points ahead of Kobach, 46% to 43%. Today, the contest has sea-sawed back to the Republican 48% to 43%. Schodorf is by no means out of contention; the contest could be the one on the ballot decided by the fewest votes.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 775 state of KS adults 10/02/14 through 10/05/14. Of the adults, 679 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 549 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. You must credit KSN-TV if you air, cite, or publish these results in whole or part.

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