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Familiar Face Longwell Has Slight Advantage Over Fresh-Face Wiliams in Race for Open-Seat of Wichita Mayor

SurveyUSA Operations - 4 days ago

Wichita City Council Member Jeff Longwell appears to have a slight advantage over political newcomer Sam Williams in the race to replace Mayor Carl Brewer, who is term limited. Today, as early voting begins, and 2 weeks until votes are counted, it’s Longwell 42%, Williams 35%, with 22% of the most likely voters still undecided.

Longwell leads among both men and women and, though narrowly, leads in all age groups. Self-identified Republicans back Longwell by 4 points, but self-identified conservatives back Williams by 5 points, so the “political right” is not of one mind. Democrats back Longwell by 9 points. Moderates back Longwell by 5 points. Independents back Longwell by 10 points.

Williams, a businessman, out-polls Longwell 2:1 among voters who see Job Development as the city’s largest priority (44% to 23%). And, Williams ties Longwell among the city’s most affluent voters. The wealthier the electorate, and the more motivated the electorate is by job development, the better Williams will do. But: Longwell leads 2:1 among voters who are focused on Infrastructure, leads 3:1 among voters focused on property tax rates, and leads narrowly among voters focused on spending.

Also on the city ballot is an initiative to decriminalize marijuana. It is unclear whether this initiative will attract to the polls non-traditional voters who do not typically vote in a off-year municipal election. Based on SurveyUSA’s best read of the electorate, “Yes,” to decriminalize marijuana, leads “No” 45% to 39%. The youngest voters back decriminalization 5:4. The oldest voters oppose decriminalization 4:3. Republicans and conservatives oppose. Democrats and moderates support.

Those who oppose decriminalization fear that permissive marijuana laws will lead to more serious drug use. Those who support decriminalization say that marijuana use is not a serious offense.

About: Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 city of Wichita adults 03/18/15 through 03/23/15. Of the adults, 873 were registered to vote in the city. Of the 873 registered voters, 501 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Most Minnesotans Oppose Gas Tax Increase

SurveyUSA Operations - 32 days ago

Chargers “Deceptive” in Stadium Handling, Say 2/3 in San Diego

SurveyUSA Operations - 34 days ago

Full results here.

Majority in Oregon Say Governor Should Resign

SurveyUSA Operations - 44 days ago

58% of Oregon adults say Governor John Kitzhaber should resign, according to this latest exclusive KATU 2 News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 36% say Kitzhaber should remain in office. Republicans say Kitzhaber should resign by a 4:1 margin; independents by a margin of 2:1. Democrats say Kitzhaber should remain in office by a slim 5:4 margin.

45% of Oregonians say Kitzhaber has done things that were unethical, but not illegal; 28% say Kitzhaber has broken the law; 20% say he has done nothing wrong. When asked the same question about Cylvia Hayes, Kitzhaber’s fiance and Oregon’s First Lady, a different response: a majority, 54%, believe she has broken the law; another 28% say she has acted unethically, but not illegally.

Who bears most of the blame for the situation John Kitzhaber tonight finds himself in? 31% say Kitzhaber himself is most to blame; 22% say Hayes; 41% say both bear an equal share of the responsibility.

Many Bay Area Residents Want Charges Upheld Against ‘Black Friday 14′ Protesters

SurveyUSA Operations - 45 days ago

3 of 4 San Francisco Bay Area adults familiar with the protests that shut down BART service on Black Friday say criminal charges against the “Black Friday 14″ protesters should remain in place. By a 2:1 margin, those familiar with the protests say financial restitution should be made; by an 8:1 margin, that protesters should be required to perform community service. Full results here.

Fresno Perfectly Divided on President Obama Immigration Changes

SurveyUSA Operations - 125 days ago

* One-third of Fresno agrees with all of President Obama’s immigration changes.
* One-third of Fresno disagrees with all of President Obama’s immigration changes.
* And one-third of Fresno agrees with some changes and disagrees with other changes.

* Half of Fresno says the President has the authority to make such changes.
* Half of Fresno says the President does not have the authority to make such changes.

1,000 Fresno area adults were interviewed 11/21/14. Of them, 647 watched the President’s 11/20/14 speech to the nation, or heard news coverage of it. Full results here.

In New Mexico, Incumbent Republican Martinez Re-Elected Governor; Incumbent Democrat Udall Poised To Be Re-Elected US Senator, Or Is He?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 145 days ago

24 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, both of New Mexico’s top-of-ticket incumbents are ahead in contests for re-election, according to research conducted for KOB-TV.

First-term incumbent Democrat Tom Udall leads Republican challenger Allen Weh 52% to 39% in the contest for US Senate. But, there is a profound wrinkle in the data that may make the outcome closer than these numbers indicate. Among those New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot, Weh leads, 50% to 48%. If Udall is to win tomorrow, 11/04/14, he will need to outperform Weh among voters who cast their ballot at the precinct, to overcome Weh’s advantage among early voters. For Udall to achieve the 13-point victory that these poll results show, Udall would need to outperform Weh on Election Day by 22 points. If the Democratic turn-out-the-vote engine sputters, Udall may sweat-out a nervous Election Night.

Weh leads among NM whites by 8 points. Udall leads among Latinos by 33 points. Udall has a 20-point lead among women and a 5-point lead among men. Udall holds 78% of the Democratic base. Weh holds 80% of the Republican base. Independents break by 16 points for Udall. Udall leads by 23 points in Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque. Udall leads by just 9 points in the rest of New Mexico.

First-term incumbent Republican Susana Martinez leads Democratic challenger Gary King 56% to 38% in the contest for Governor of New Mexico. Martinez leads by at least 13 points in every age group. She leads by 23 points among men and by 15 points among women. Martinez’ broad coalition includes 63% of white votes and 50% of Latino voters. She holds 94% of the GOP base, and siphons off 34% of the Democrats, who break party ranks and cross-over.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of New Mexico adults 10/30/14 through 11/02/14. Of the adults, 633 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 548 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already returned a ballot, or as being likely to do so before the 11/04/14 general election deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (84% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (16% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Back to Where We Were in August: GOP Has Potential to ‘Run The Table’ In Georgia; May Win All 6 Key Statewide Offices

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 146 days ago

8 WXIA-TV pre-election tracking polls ago, SurveyUSA wrote that Republicans in GA led in each of the top 6 statewide contests on the 11/04/14 General Election ballot. Though much changed over the past 12 weeks, and Democrats in a couple contests briefly overtook their GOP opponents as the campaign intensified, when all is said and done, on Election Eve, Republican candidates lead in all 6 statewide contests, and could conceivably “run the table” and win all of them.

In the nationally-significant contest for US Senator, to fill the open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue edges Michelle Nunn 47% to 44%. Were Perdue to win the seat by 3 percentage points, and were Libertarian Amanda Swafford to get less than 3% of the vote, a runoff would be avoided and Perdue would win the seat outright tomorrow, 11/04/14. Were Perdue to win the seat by less than 3 percentage points, and/or were Swafford to receive more than 3 percent of the vote, a January 2015 runoff would be required. Were Nunn to win the seat, and only a narrow Nunn win would be consistent with these results, that would be a significant upset. Nunn now trails among voters who have already returned a ballot, and trails among voters who say they will vote on Election Day. Nunn leads only among the youngest voters, who, in a midterm, are often the least reliable voters. Perdue leads among voters age 35+, and leads by 18 points among voters age 65+. Perdue leads 2:1 among GA whites. Nunn leads 7:1 among GA blacks. Perdue holds 91% of the Republican base. Twice as many Democrats cross-over and vote for Perdue as Republicans who cross-over and vote for Nunn. Independents split.

In the locally significant contest for Governor of GA, Democratic challenger Jason Carter falters at the finish, putting up a 42% number, his lowest poll number 8 tracking polls over the past 12 weeks. Incumbent Republican Nathan Deal puts up a 47% at the finish, his highest poll number in 12 weeks. Should these numbers hold, and should Deal win by 5 points, and/or should Libertarian Andrew Hunt be held to less than 5% of the vote, a runoff will be avoided, and Deal will win his next term tomorrow, 11/04/14. Should Deal win by fewer than 5 points and/or should Hunt get 5% or more of the vote, a January 2015 runoff will follow. A Carter win would be an enormous upset, given these poll results. Among the wealthiest Georgians, Carter’s support collapses at the finish: he trails Deal 53% to 39%. This is Carter’s lowest showing and Deal’s highest showing, among those households earning more than $80,000 a year, in 8 WXIA-TV tracking polls going back to August. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Deal leads by 6 points.

* In the election for the open seat of School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods edges Democrat Valarie Wilson 47% to 44%. Woods has never trailed.
* In the election for Lt Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democrat Connie Stokes 54% to 38%.
* In the election for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democrat Doreen Carter 52% to 40%.
* In the election for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democrat Greg Hecht 51% to 39%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 state of GA adults 10/30/14 through 11/02/14. Of the adults, 638 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 591 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to vote at the precinct. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. A candidate for statewide office in GA needs to reach 50% on Election Day, or a runoff is required. You must credit WXIA-TV in Atlanta if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or part.

Republicans Gain Late Ground in Minnesota, But Not Enough to Depose Incumbent Democrats Franken, Dayton

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 146 days ago

The 2 top-of-ticket contests on the ballot in Minnesota in 2014 tighten materially as Election Day approaches, but not so much as to call into question the outcome.

In this, SurveyUSA’s 4th and final look at the contests, with 96-hours remaining until votes are counted:

* Incumbent Governor Mark Dayton’s once double-digit lead has been halved; he now leads Republican Jeff Johnson 47% to 42%.
* Incumbent US Senator Al Franken remains poised to defeat Republican Mike McFadden 51% to 40%.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Dayton is down 3 points, Johnson is up 2 points. Dayton had led by 10, now 5. Among independents, Dayton had led by 6 points, now trails by 12 points, an 18-point right turn.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Franken is down 2 points, McFadden is up 2 points. Franken had led by 15 points, now leads by 11. Among independents, Franken had led by 19 points, now is tied, a 19-point right turn.

Minnesota job approvals follow:

* President Barack Obama, 40%.
* U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, 59%.
* U.S. Senator Al Franken, 53%.
* Governor Mark Dayton, 49%.
* The state legislature, 30%.
* MNSure, 25%.

Those voters who say health care is the most important issue in the election narrowly back the DFL candidate. Those voters who say that taxes are the most important issue back the Republican candidate by more than 2:1.

Minnesota voters split on whether they would vote for a Republican or a Democrat for the US House of Representatives. 44% vote for a Democrat. 43% vote for a Republican. Largely unchanged, poll-on-poll.

Minnesota voters also split on whether they would vote for a Republican or a Democrat for the Minnesota House of Representatives. 44% say Democrat, 43% say Republican. Two weeks ago, it was 46% Democrat, 42% Republican.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of MN adults 10/27/14 through 10/30/14. Of the adults, 647 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 597 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be certain to do so before the 11/04/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In CA’s 52nd US Congressional District, Fight To Finish Between Incumbent Democrat Peters and GOP DeMaio

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 146 days ago

96-hours till votes are counted in the election for US House of Representatives from California’s 52nd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Scott Peters and Republican challenger Carl DeMaio are today as they ever were: locked in hand-to-hand combat to wrest control of the seat. Today, SurveyUSA shows it: DeMaio 45%, Peters 44%. The research was commissioned by KGTV-TV 10News and the UT San Diego newspaper.

This is the 4th pre-election tracking poll that SurveyUSA has conducted in CA-52. DeMaio has led, outside of the theoretical margin of sampling error, only once, the first time, back on 06/13/14. Since then, the nominal lead has seesawed, but always within the theoretical margin. Today, heading into the final weekend before votes are counted, and with many CA ballots already returned, both candidates are well-positioned for victory; neither candidate can be considered the favorite.

If Peters holds the seat, which he may, it will be because young voters turned out in larger numbers than here forecast. And it will be because Latino voters voted in larger numbers than here forecast, and may also have voted more Democratically than here shown. If DeMaio wins by a narrow margin, it will be because seniors turned out in larger numbers than here forecast, and because white voters represented a larger portion of the electorate than here shown. If DeMaio wins by more than a couple points, that would be evidence of a much talked-about “Republican wave,” which may affect local elections across the country, as part of which a number of sitting House Democrats may get washed away.

Consistent in all 4 of SurveyUSA’s pre-election polls, voters say that “integrity” is the most important issue in the contest. And on the issue of integrity, Peters leads DeMaio 48% to 40%. Fiscal responsibility is the next most important issue, and on that issue DeMaio leads decisively, 74% to 21%.

Atypically, the number of undecided voters is up, as Election Day approaches. It has doubled since June. This is sometimes an indication that each candidate has succeeded in raising doubts about the other. And it is sometimes an indication that voters are holding their nose while marking their ballot.

This research was conducted 100% by telephone; live interviewers were used to hand-dial cell phones: SurveyUSA interviewed 580 registered voters from CA-52 10/27/14 through 10/30/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as Voter List sample), purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 551 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already voted, or as being likely to vote on or before the 11/04/14 General Election deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phones, secured the cooperation of the respondent, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, logged the answers, and remained on the call until its conclusion.

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