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Republican Bevin within Striking Distance, But Democrat Conway in the Lead, 3 Months Till KY Elects a New Governor

SurveyUSA Operations - 30 days ago

A tight fight shapes up in Kentucky’s open Governor’s seat, where, in an election today, 100 days until votes are counted, Democrat Jack Conway edges Republican Matt Bevin 45% to 42%. This latest Bluegrass Poll, commissioned by the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV, highlights 6 statewide contests on the 11/03/15 ballot, each decided at this hour by 7 or fewer points.

In a 2-person Governor’s race, Bevin suffers because 15% of those who tell SurveyUSA they are “very conservative” cross-over and vote for the Democrat Conway. Bevin needs every one of these “very conservative” votes to win. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. And Kentucky’s few liberals, as expected, vote overwhelmingly Blue. 13% of likely voters today are undecided. When all registered voters are asked which of the 2 candidates is better qualified to deal with the state worker pension system, voters split: 37% name Conway, 36% name Bevin. When registered voters are asked who is better qualified to manage KY’s state budget, voters split: 38% say Conway, 38% say Bevin.

In a 2-person Governor’s race:

* Bevin leads by 19 points in Southwest KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #1.
* Bevin Leads by 13 points in West Central KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #2.
* Bevin leads by a nominal 2 points in Northern KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #4.
* Conway leads by 30 points in Jefferson County, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #3.
* Conway leads by a nominal 3 points in Eastern KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #5.
* And, Conway leads by 11 points in Central KY, which maps closely to KY Congressional District #6.

If Independent Drew Curtis is on the 11/03/15 Gubernatorial ballot, Curtis today captures 8% of the likely vote, and takes slightly more votes from the Republican than from the Democrat. A 3-way contest today ends with Conway leading by 5 points: Conway 43%, Bevin 38%, Curtis 8%, with 11% undecided. Of Bevin supporters in a 2-person race, 7% vote for Curtis in a 3-person race. Of Conway supporters in a 2-person race, 5% vote for Curtis in a 3-person race.

In an election for KY Attorney General today, Democrat Andy Beshear, son of sitting Governor Steve Beshear, leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 40% to 33%. 24% of likely voters are undecided at this hour. An additional 3% of likely voters are not following the contest.

In an election for KY Secretary of State, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes leads Republican Steve Knipper 46% to 40%, with 12% of likely voters undecided and another 2% of likely voters not following the contest.

In an election for KY State Auditor, Democrat Adam Edelen leads Republican Mike Harmon 35% to 31%, with 30% of likely voters undecided, and another 4% of likely voters not following the contest.

In the contest for State Treasurer, Democrat Rick Nelson leads Republican Allison Ball 36% to 33%, with 29% of likely voters undecided and another 2% of likely voters not following the contest.

In the contest for State Agriculture Commissioner, Republican Ryan Quarles and Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann run effectively even, with Quarles at 33%, Lawson Spann at 32%, 30% undecided and another 5% not following the contest. Quarles’ nominal 1-point advantage is not statistically significant; the contest should be characterized as even, at this hour.

Separately:

53% of registered voters disagree with the Supreme Court of the United States’ decision which made same-sex marriage the law of the land. 38% agree with the Supreme Court.

Gubernatorial candidate Bevin disagrees with the Supreme Court decision; Gubernatorial candidate Conway agrees with the decision. 24% of registered voters say this makes them “much” more likely to vote for Conway. An offsetting 26% say this makes them “much” more likely to vote for Bevin. Another 25% of voters say the candidates’ positions on same-sex marriage do not affect their vote one way or the other.

KY voters split on whether County Clerks should be allowed to refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples who wish to marry. 36% say clerks should be allowed to refuse to issue marriage licenses on religious grounds; 38% say those clerks should be removed from office.

73% statewide say the statue of Jefferson Davis, President of the Confederacy, which stands in the Capitol Rotunda, should remain in place. 17% say the statue should be removed.

Looking ahead 15 months to the election for President of the United States, Kentucky’s Ron Paul and presumptive Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton remain deadlocked in the fight for Kentucky’s 8 electoral college votes. Paul gets 44% today, Clinton gets 42%. Compared to an identical, hypothetical question asked 2 months ago, Clinton is down 3 points, Paul is down 1 point, and undecided is up 3 points, from 11% to now 14%. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Kentucky by 22 percentage points. In 2008, John McCain carried KY by 16 points.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from the state of KY 07/22/15 through 07/28/15. Of the adults, 856 were registered to vote in KY. Of the registered voters, 685 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/03/15 election for Governor. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a landline telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Respondents to this survey were asked both what their party registration is, and what their party affiliation is. Party registration is reported herein as a binary result: 53% of likely voters are registered Democrat. 35% of likely voters are Republican. (Among registered voters, the split is: 51% D, 34% R.) Separately, the same likely voters were asked to place themselves on a 7-point continuum, from “Strong Republican” to “Strong Democrat.” Those results are also reported herein. In addition, voters were asked to place themselves on a 5-point continuum from “Very Conservative” to “Very Liberal.” Those results are reported herein.

Celebrating Our 25th Year of Research Excellence

SurveyUSA Operations - 77 days ago

Bevin, Comer, Heiner Stagger Toward Finish Line in KY Gubernatorial Republican Primary; No Clear Favorite 1 Week Till Votes Are Counted

SurveyUSA Operations - 113 days ago

One week till Kentucky Republicans vote in a primary for Governor, candidates Matt Bevin, Hal Heiner, and James Comer are effectively even, according to the Bluegrass Poll released by The Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

There is no clear favorite in the contest at this hour, given the inherent limitations of a sample size of 517 likely Republican primary voters. The 3 candidates may finish one, two, three in any order. Every Republican primary vote will be critical to the emergent victor, who will face Democrat Jack Conway in a general election for Governor on 11/03/15.

Nominally: Bevin is backed by 27% of GOP primary voters … but his support is disproportionately young … and primary voters are disproportionately old. Bevin may under-perform these numbers. Bevin leads among those who identify themselves as “very” conservative. Comer is backed by 26% of GOP primary voters. His support is old; he leads among seniors. Heiner is backed by 25% of GOP primary voters. His backers disproportionately identify themselves as “strong” Republicans.

Western KY votes strongly for Comer. Greater Louisville narrowly prefers Heiner to Bevin. North Central KY overwhelmingly prefers Bevin. Eastern KY splits between Comer and Heiner. The least affluent and most affluent Republican primary voters back Comer. Middle-income Republican Primary voters back Bevin.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Jack Conway, who defeats Geoff Young 5:1 in next week’s primary, has convinced a majority of Democratic primary voters that he neither would side too much with the coal industry (11%), nor side too much with environmentalists (12%), but instead would adopt a balanced approach (58%). Similarly, among Democratic primary voters, 11% say Conway is too conservative, 13% say Conway is too liberal, but an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters (63%) say Conway’s political ideology is “just about right.”

In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups for the 11/03/15 general election for Kentucky Governor, among registered KY voters today:

Conway defeats Comer by 6 points, 45% to 39%.
Conway defeats Heiner by 12 points, 48% to 36%.
Conway defeats Bevin by 11 points, 48% to 37%.

Looking ahead to 2016, Republicans primary voters like the Favorite Son, as follows:

Rand Paul, 26%.
Mike Huckabee, 15%.
Jeb Bush, 12%.
Scott Walker 10%.
All other 2016 Republican presidential candidates are in single digits.

In a general election in 2016, where the only two names on the ballot were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul, Bluegrass voters split, 45% for Paul, 45% for Clinton. Election Day is in 78 weeks.

About this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of KY adults 05/05/15 through 05/10/15. Of the adults, 2,104 were registered to vote in the state of Kentucky. Of the registered voters, 517 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Republican Primary, 707 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Democratic Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

NC’s 15 Electoral Votes Up For Grabs In 2016, But Democrat Hillary Clinton Has Slight Edge on Each GOP Contender, 18 Months Till Vote

SurveyUSA Operations - 122 days ago

In head-to-head Presidential matchups between likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and 5 Republican hopefuls, North Carolina voters are effectively tied in 4 of the cases, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. Clinton defeats Scott Walker today by a 9-point margin, leads both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by 5 points, Rand Paul by 4 points, and both Jeb Bush and “some other Republican” by a slim 2-point margin. Aside from Scott Walker, each result is within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. North Carolina went “red” in 2012, went “blue” in 2008.

1st Look At NC Presidential Primaries: Rubio, Bush, Paul, Walker Tightly Clustered on GOP Side; Clinton Swamps Democratic Opposition

SurveyUSA Operations - 123 days ago

If the 2016 North Carolina Presidential Primaries were held today, Hillary Clinton would easily win on the Democratic side, while 6 different Republicans all poll within 6 points of one another, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina.

Among likely voters in the Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton takes 56%. US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will not run, trails with 11%; Vice President Joe Biden takes 8%: 3 other named candidates each take 3% of the vote. 16% of likely voters in the Democratic primary say they would vote for some other Democrat, or are still undecided.

In the Republican Primary, candidates cluster tightly:

* Marco Rubio gets 16% today and runs most strongly among voters 50+, those with college educations, those with higher incomes, and in Greater Raleigh.
* Jeb Bush takes 15%, drawing strength from moderates and in Southern and Coastal Carolina.
* Rand Paul today gets 14%, and runs 3 times more strongly among voters under age 50 than among voters 50+.
* Scott Walker gets 12%. Among Republicans, Walker gets 11%; among Independents, 22%.
* Mike Huckabee, at 11%, is stronger among younger voters than older voters.
* Ted Cruz takes 10% today. Cruz does twice as well among younger voters than among older voters, and twice as well among Independents than among Republicans.

Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum are further back. 10% would vote for another Republican or are undecided.

Familiar Face Longwell Has Slight Advantage Over Fresh-Face Wiliams in Race for Open-Seat of Wichita Mayor

SurveyUSA Operations - 163 days ago

Wichita City Council Member Jeff Longwell appears to have a slight advantage over political newcomer Sam Williams in the race to replace Mayor Carl Brewer, who is term limited. Today, as early voting begins, and 2 weeks until votes are counted, it’s Longwell 42%, Williams 35%, with 22% of the most likely voters still undecided.

Longwell leads among both men and women and, though narrowly, leads in all age groups. Self-identified Republicans back Longwell by 4 points, but self-identified conservatives back Williams by 5 points, so the “political right” is not of one mind. Democrats back Longwell by 9 points. Moderates back Longwell by 5 points. Independents back Longwell by 10 points.

Williams, a businessman, out-polls Longwell 2:1 among voters who see Job Development as the city’s largest priority (44% to 23%). And, Williams ties Longwell among the city’s most affluent voters. The wealthier the electorate, and the more motivated the electorate is by job development, the better Williams will do. But: Longwell leads 2:1 among voters who are focused on Infrastructure, leads 3:1 among voters focused on property tax rates, and leads narrowly among voters focused on spending.

Also on the city ballot is an initiative to decriminalize marijuana. It is unclear whether this initiative will attract to the polls non-traditional voters who do not typically vote in a off-year municipal election. Based on SurveyUSA’s best read of the electorate, “Yes,” to decriminalize marijuana, leads “No” 45% to 39%. The youngest voters back decriminalization 5:4. The oldest voters oppose decriminalization 4:3. Republicans and conservatives oppose. Democrats and moderates support.

Those who oppose decriminalization fear that permissive marijuana laws will lead to more serious drug use. Those who support decriminalization say that marijuana use is not a serious offense.

About: Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 city of Wichita adults 03/18/15 through 03/23/15. Of the adults, 873 were registered to vote in the city. Of the 873 registered voters, 501 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Most Minnesotans Oppose Gas Tax Increase

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/25/15 09:47 AM

Chargers “Deceptive” in Stadium Handling, Say 2/3 in San Diego

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/23/15 11:28 AM

Full results here.

Majority in Oregon Say Governor Should Resign

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/13/15 03:30 AM

58% of Oregon adults say Governor John Kitzhaber should resign, according to this latest exclusive KATU 2 News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 36% say Kitzhaber should remain in office. Republicans say Kitzhaber should resign by a 4:1 margin; independents by a margin of 2:1. Democrats say Kitzhaber should remain in office by a slim 5:4 margin.

45% of Oregonians say Kitzhaber has done things that were unethical, but not illegal; 28% say Kitzhaber has broken the law; 20% say he has done nothing wrong. When asked the same question about Cylvia Hayes, Kitzhaber’s fiance and Oregon’s First Lady, a different response: a majority, 54%, believe she has broken the law; another 28% say she has acted unethically, but not illegally.

Who bears most of the blame for the situation John Kitzhaber tonight finds himself in? 31% say Kitzhaber himself is most to blame; 22% say Hayes; 41% say both bear an equal share of the responsibility.

Many Bay Area Residents Want Charges Upheld Against ‘Black Friday 14′ Protesters

SurveyUSA Operations - 02/12/15 07:42 AM

3 of 4 San Francisco Bay Area adults familiar with the protests that shut down BART service on Black Friday say criminal charges against the “Black Friday 14″ protesters should remain in place. By a 2:1 margin, those familiar with the protests say financial restitution should be made; by an 8:1 margin, that protesters should be required to perform community service. Full results here.

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