In 18-Person Contest for Open Atlanta Mayor’s Seat, Norwood Well-Positioned to Advance to December Runoff, But Who Will She Face?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 16 hours ago

YOU MUST CREDIT WXIA-TV ATLANTA IF YOU AIR, CITE OR PUBLISH THESE RESULTS IN WHOLE OR PART.

Will it be Mary Norwood against Caesar Mitchell?
Will it be Mary Norwood against Keisha Lance Bottoms?
Will it be Mary Norwood against Kwanza Hall?
Will it be Mary Norwood against Vincent Fort?

111 days until votes are counted in the election for Mayor of Atlanta, one thing is clear: Mary Norwood is well-positioned to advance to a December 2-person runoff, in the most-likely scenario that Norwood herself does not get 50% of the vote on Election Day, 11/07/17.

18 candidates are on the ballot to replace city of Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, who is term limited. Among the city’s most likely voters, at this hour:

* 27% vote for Norwood, a city council member and long-time civic activist.
* 10% vote for Mitchell, who is city council President.
* 9% vote for Bottoms, a city council member.
* 9% vote for Hall, a city council member.
* 8% vote for Fort, a state senator.
* 6% vote for Peter Aman, former Chief Operating Officer of Atlanta.
* 6% vote for Cathy Woolard, a former city council member.
* 4% vote for John Eaves, chairman of the Fulton County Commission.
* 10 other candidates have 1% or less support.
* 20% of likely voters are undecided today, 3 months until early voting begins.

History repeats itself. Norwood ran for Mayor in 2009. In a 6-person field, she defeated Reed 46% to 36% in the general election. But because Norwood did not reach the 50% threshold, Reed and Norwood (the top two finishers in the general election) faced each other in a runoff, which Reed won by a handful of votes. Reed served 2 terms as Mayor and may not seek a 3rd. Today, Norwood leads by 17 points, but whose support would she pick-up in a runoff? Among white voters, Woolard finishes 2nd, with 13% of the vote to Norwood’s 39%. Among African Americans, who are a majority in the city, Norwood leads with 19% to 15% for Mitchell and 14% for Bottoms.

Norwood’s support is disproportionately older; she gets 38% of the vote among seniors. Among the city’s youngest voters, Norwood and Hall tie. Although the mayor’s race is non-partisan, Norwood gets 52% among those who identify as a Republican. Among those who identify as a Democrat, Norwood leads Mitchell by 9 points. Among those who identify as an independent, Norwood is 15 points ahead of Bottoms.

Among voters with a high-school education, Norwood leads Mitchell by 4 points. Among voters with a 4-year college degree, Norwood leads Mitchell by 18 points. Among those who have lived in Atlanta for less than 10 years, Hall and Mitchell tie for 1st place. But among those who have lived in Atlanta for 30 or more years, Norwood has 3 times the support of her nearest rival.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,085 adults from the city of Atlanta 07/11/17 through 07/18/17. Of the adults, 961 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 527 who were likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. This analysis is a material part of the survey’s results.


In 21-Candidate Free-For-All For Open Seattle Mayor Seat, McGinn and Durkan Fight For Right To Advance to Run-Off; Hasegawa, Oliver and Farrell Clustered in Second Tier, All Others With Insignificant Support, 42 Days Till Votes Counted

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 28 days ago

YOU MUST CREDIT KING-TV IF YOU AIR, CITE, PUBLISH OR BROADCAST THESE RESULTS IN WHOLE OR PART.

With embattled incumbent Seattle Mayor Ed Murray out of the running, former Mayor Mike McGinn and former US Attorney Jenny Durkan emerge from a crowded field as early front runners, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KING-TV. But: even among those who say they are certain to vote before the August 1 deadline, nearly 4 in 10 are undecided, and the contest remains wide open for any of 3 second-tier candidates to overtake the front-runners.

At this hour, 3 weeks till ballots are mailed and 6 weeks till votes are counted, the contest stands:

19% McGinn.
14% Durkan.
9% Nikkita Oliver, an artist.
8% Bob Hasegawa, a state senator.
6% Jessyn Farrell, a state representative.
3% Cary Moon, a civic activist.
1% Gary E. Brose, an entrepreneur.
14 other candidates have less than 1% support.

The top 2 finishers on 08/01/17 advance to a run-off in November.

1 in 3 likely voters say Murray should have run for re-election. Approximately that same number, 1 in 3, say they would have voted for Murray if he were on the ballot. Of those whose first choice would have been Murry, 27% vote for McGinn, 11% vote for Durkan, 8% vote for Farrell — but 37% of Murray supporters don’t yet have a 2nd choice.

McGinn’s support is young, male, and middle-income. Durkan’s support is older, female, and affluent. Both Hasegawa and Oliver over-perform among the city’s significant Asian population. Though the contest is non-partisan, Republicans and conservatives line up for McGinn; liberals and Democrats throw in for Oliver. Durkan draws from independents.

2 of 3 Seattle adults say they would be “for” a plan to impose a new tax on those city residents whose incomes are in the top 5 percent.

76% of Seattle adults say the city has “too little” affordable housing; 11% say Seattle has “just the right amount” of affordable housing; 7% say the city has “too much” affordable housing.

48% support a proposal to rezone parts of Seattle to allow multi-family homes in areas that today only permit single-family homes. 29% oppose. Opposition is strongest among senior citizens.

Seattle is divided over a proposed tax on soda and other sweetened drinks. 31% say they would support such a tax, regardless of how the money raised is used; another 31% say they would oppose such a tax, regardless of how the money raised is used. 38% say their answer depends on how the money would be used. When told the money from the proposed soda tax would go to fund low-income education, 61% support the tax; 25% oppose.

53% in Seattle say drug abuse is a “major problem” in the city; another 17% say it is a crisis. By 2:1, residents say proposed “safe injection centers” would do more good than harm.

48% say homelessness in Seattle is a “major problem”; another 38% say it is a crisis. When asked what Seattle’s next mayor should do first to combat homelessness, 30% say taxes should be raised to fund affordable housing and drug treatment; 24% say the city should establish more sanctioned RV and tent camps; 15% say police should break up any illegal camping and get tough on panhandling; 10% say the city should reduce the services it offers in order to change its reputation for generosity.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 city of Seattle adults 06/06/17 through 06/18/17. Of the adults, 800 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 503 who were most likely to vote in the 08/01/17 primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in he recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.


Anyone’s Guess What Might Happen in Next Week’s GA-06 Special Election; The Older The Electorate, The Better for Handel & Speaker Ryan; The Younger The Electorate, The Better for Ossoff & Speaker Pelosi; Poll Shows ‘Jump Ball’ At This Hour, With Many Early Votes Already Cast

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 37 days ago

YOU MUST CREDIT WXIA-TV ATLANTA IF YOU AIR, CITE OR PUBLISH THESE RESULTS IN WHOLE OR PART.

1 week till votes are counted in the special election to fill Tom Price’s seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democratic upstart Jon Ossoff and well-known Republican Karen Handel are tied, 47% each, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by WXIA-TV in Atlanta.

It is impossible for a pollster to say with any confidence whether today’s survey results will end up being too red — other recent polls, including SurveyUSA’s most recent study for WXIA-TV, show Ossoff materially ahead — or whether these results will end up being too blue — the District should be safely Republican. With record spending by national action committees, the local contest has been weaponized, perhaps unfairly, into a referendum on President Donald Trump. Here is what we can say with confidence:

A younger electorate favors Democrat Ossoff. He leads 3:2 among those under age 50. The older the electorate, the better Handel will do. She leads 3:2 among seniors and leads by nearly 2:1 among the ‘Old South,’ those who have lived in Georgia 30 or more years. Ossoff is up 25 points among the ‘New South,’ those transplants who have lived in Georgia 20 or fewer years.

Handel Will Need Strong Showing on Election Day to Overcome Ossoff’s ‘Banked’ Votes. 

Among those District residents who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Ossoff leads by 19 points. Among those who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet returned a ballot but will do so before the deadline, Handel leads by 14 points. When those 2 universes are blended: nail-biter. Of those who voted for Republican Congressman Tom Price when he ran for reelection in this District in 2016, 86% today back Handel. Of those who voted for Democrat Rodney Stooksbury on 11/08/16, 95% today back Ossoff. (Price was nominated by Mr. Trump to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, creating a vacancy and the need for this special election.) Of those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, 91% back Handel; 5% defect. Of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 94% vote for Ossoff; 4% defect.

Those who attend church regularly vote for Handel 2:1. Those who almost never attend church vote for Ossoff 2:1. Evangelicals by more than 2:1 back the Republican. ‘Very’ conservative voters back Handel 97% to 1%. ‘Very’ liberal voters back Ossoff 100% to Zero percent. Voters who say health care is the most important issue in the contest back Ossoff 2:1. Those who say tax reform is most important back Handel 4:1.

Who’s To Say, Really? 

3 weeks ago, a SurveyUSA poll for WXIA-TV had Ossoff 7 points atop Handel. Some of the change in outcome poll-on-poll may reflect sampling vagaries and not reflect actual movement in the contest. Today’s survey has fewer high-school educated respondents and fewer lower-income respondents than did SurveyUSA’s sample 3-weeks ago. Both high-school educated voters and lower-income voters back Ossoff. Today’s sample is older than SurveyUSA’s release 3 weeks ago. Older voters back Handel. If you see these 3 differences as bugs not features, you can argue that Ossoff is today no worse off than he was 3 weeks ago.

But that is just one hypothesis. Equally plausible is a theory that potential voters have been bombarded to the point of irritation by advertisements, direct mail and opinion researchers. SurveyUSA’s is the 3rd public survey released in the past 7 days in this district; many more may have been conducted by candidates and PACs who may be leveraging poll data but not releasing it. In this theory, the younger, more transient voters buckle the first; just a few need to stay home (and/or hang up on a pollster) in order for the results to swing 7 points in one direction.

If Handel wins by more than a point, look at this graph as one reason why. Men would appear to have abandoned Ossoff down the stretch. Then look at this graph. Ossoff had led by 20 points among independent voters 3 weeks ago, but watched that lead melt like butter in the June Georgia sun as today he finds himself upside down and trailing Handel by 4.

About: From 06/07/17 through 06/11/17, SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters using Registration-Based Sampling (aka: Voter List sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the 700 registered voters, 503 today were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the runoff or to be certain to so before the 06/20/17 deadline. Both cell phone respondents (49% of likely voters) and landline respondents (51% of likely voters) were interviewed for today’s release.

 

Overwhelmingly, Portland Says Light Rail Stabbing Was Act of Terrorism, Not Patriotism; City Offended by President Trump’s Silence; Mayor Ted Wheeler Needs to Say and Do More; Number Who Say Race Relations Here ‘Getting Worse’ Has Doubled from 1 Year Ago

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 44 days ago

Portlandiers appear profoundly affected by the stabbing deaths of 2 Good Samaritans and subsequent arraignment of a white supremacist, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KATU-TV in Portland.

1 year ago, 22% of greater Portland residents said race relations in greater Portland were getting worse. Today, following a hate crime that shocked a nation, that number has doubled to 43%.

Of those who are following news stories about the stabbing deaths on the MAX light-rail system, 68% label the actions of the accused, Jeremy Joseph Christian, “terrorism.” Just 1% call the violence “patriotism,” as Christian did when he appeared in court.

64% here say President Donald Trump needs to say and do more in response to the domestic terrorism. So far, Mr. Trump has said little, done nothing. 46% say Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler also needs to say more, do more.

550 area adults were interviewed 05/31/17 through 06/04/17. Minority residents were over-sampled, and then weighted to their correct proportion of the greater Portland population.

Ebb Tide Sinks All Boats: During Singularly Bad Week for President Trump, GOP Congressional Hopeful Karen Handel Finds Herself Trailing Democratic Upstart Jon Ossoff in GA Runoff Election Triggered By Trump Cabinet Pick for HHS

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 58 days ago

The pounding President Donald Trump is taking over loose lips may be taking a toll on Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Karen Handel, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta.

Handel trails Democratic upstart Jon Ossoff 51% to 44% at this hour, close enough in a low-turnout, stand-alone runoff to be anyone’s call, though clearly Ossoff is in a better position than is Handel.

The district is Republican leaning but not Republican invincible: Trump carried the district in 2016, but only by 1.5 percentage points, compared to, say, the neighboring 9th Congressional District, which Trump carried by 58 percentage points.

Ossoff does not live in the 6th Congressional District, but voters shrug. 84% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans say the residency doesn’t bother them. Karen Handel does not have a college degree, but voters shrug. 45% of Democrats and 76% of Republicans say it is not an issue for them at all.

The vacancy in the seat for the 6th Congressional District was created when President Trump selected incumbent Republican congressman Tom Price to be a cabinet member, in charge of Health and Human Services. A special election with 18 candidates was held 04/18/2017. The Democrat, Ossoff, ran away with the contest, but fell short of reaching 50% of the vote, which would have handed him the seat and eliminated the need for a runoff.

The 06/20/17 runoff has national implications and will be seen as a referendum the Republican President.

SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters using Registration-Based Sampling (aka: Voter List sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the 700 registered voters, 549 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the runoff or to be certain to so before the 06/12/17 deadline. Both cell phone respondents and landline respondents were interviewed.

With Trump Abroad for 1st Time as POTUS, 1 in 3 Americans Approve of His Handling of Syria, North Korea; Majority Disapproves of His Handling of Russia; Better News For Trump on His Handling of the Economy, But Overall Failing Grades Across the USA for Besieged, Pugnacious President, 120 Days into His 1st Term

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 62 days ago

As President Trump meets with Arab leaders today and other world leaders over the next week, SurveyUSA examines what Americans think of Mr. Trump’s handling of international relationships with adversarial foreign powers. We learn:

25% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of Russia, 54% disapprove.
32% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of China, 42% disapprove.
33% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of Syria, 44% disapprove.
33% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of North Korea, 43% disapprove.

39% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, 52% disapprove.
25% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the environment, 56% disapprove.
27% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of health care, 59% disapprove.
41% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, 43% disapprove.

Asked to give Mr. Trump a letter “grade” after his 1st 4 months in office…

10% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an A.
20% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an B.
16% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an C.
17% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an D.
34% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an F.
On a 4.0 scale, Mr. Trump’s Grade Point Average today is 1.7, a C-minus.

Asked whether they would assign Mr. Trump a “passing” grade or a “failing” grade after 4 months in office, 52% fail Mr. Trump, 39% pass him.

1,500 adults nationwide were interviewed 05/17/17. Cell-phone and landline respondents were included. Additional, essential findings from this SurveyUSA poll on President Trump can be found here and here.

Americans Worry About Their President: Majority Says Mr. Trump Sometimes Loses Touch with Reality; Majority Says Mr. Trump Cannot Be Trusted with Sensitive National Secrets; 37% Say Mr. Trump is Unable to Distinguish Between What is Real and What is Made Up; 1 in 3 Say President Trump’s Mental Health is Poor; Just 27% Say History Will View Him As a Patriot

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 63 days ago

As storm clouds darken by the hour, and in some quarters tornado sirens sound, Americans are deeply worried about the President of the United States, Donald John Trump, according to SurveyUSA’s latest nationwide survey.

In interviews conducted after news stories that Mr. Trump had asked FBI Director James Comey to let go of the criminal investigation into former National Security Administration head Michael Flynn, but before further troubling revelations that Flynn would not honor a subpoena from the U.S. Senate, before news broke that Mr. Trump knew Mr. Flynn was under criminal investigation before he hired him, and before news broke that the Department of Justice had appointed a Special Prosecutor to investigate Mr. Trump, SurveyUSA finds:

56% of Americans (including 1 in 4 Republicans) say Mr. Trump sometimes loses touch with reality, up from 49% in February. Just 26% say Mr. Trump sees the world as it is, down from 33% in February.

Just 11% of Americans say Mr. Trump always tells the truth (down ever-so-slightly from 13% in February).
A plurality, 43%, says Mr. Trump knows when he is telling the truth and knows when he is making things up (unchanged from February).
37% today say Mr. Trump is unable to distinguish between what is true and what is made up (up, but ever-so-slightly from 35% in February.)

33% say Mr. Trump can be trusted with sensitive national secrets, but a majority, 52%, say Mr. Trump cannot.
Earlier this week, Mr. Trump claimed an “absolute right” to release classified info to Russian officials when those officials visited him in the White House.
18% of Republicans vs 83% of Democrats say Mr. Trump cannot be trusted.
51% of independents and 56% of moderates say Mr. Trump cannot be trusted.
Besides Republicans and conservatives, Mr. Trump’s core supporters, only 3 constituencies at this hour say Mr. Trump can be trusted: Protestants, pro-lifers, and those who live in rural America.
Everyone else — North, South, East and West, male, female, young, old, military, non-military, educated or not — says Mr. Trump cannot be trusted.

While a plurality, 37%, describe Mr. Trump’s physical health as good, a plurality, 33%, describe Mr. Trump’s mental health as poor.
Just 27% say Mr. Trump will go down in history as a patriot. 53% say history will record Mr. Trump as something else.

1,500 adults were interviewed nationwide on 05/17/17. Cellphone and home phone respondents were included.

Majority in San Diego Says Trump Has Abused Power, Was Reckless To Share Information With Russia; Split Evenly on High Crimes / Misdemeanors

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 63 days ago

41% of San Diego area adults say President Donald Trump has committed a high crime or misdemeanor while in office, which would be grounds for impeachment under the U.S. Constitution, according to this latest exclusive KGTV 10News / San Diego Union Tribune poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Meantime, while 45% say talk of impeachment is premature, 47% feel otherwise: 19% say talk of impeachment is timely, 28% say talk of impeachment is overdue.

45% of San Diego area adults say former FBI Director James Comey was fired because he was spending too much time on the President’s relationship with Russia; 24% say he was fired for not doing a good job; 13% say Comey lost his job for mishandling the Hillary Clinton email investigation. 46% say President Trump’s removal of Comey was an obstruction of justice; 38% say it was not. 56% say President Trump is guilty of abuse of power; 35% say he is not.

59% say the President acted “recklessly” when he shared classified information with Russian diplomats; 26% say he acted “wisely.”

Full results follow …

Majority in USA Says Trump Guilty of Abuse of Power; Plurality Says Trump Guilty of Obstruction of Justice; 60% Say President Acted Recklessly in Sharing Classified Info with Russian Diplomats; On the Other Hand, Majority Nationwide Has No Confidence That Republicans in Congress Will Put Their Country Before Party

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 64 days ago

1 in 3 Americans nationwide say Donald Trump has committed a “high crime or misdemeanor” while serving as President of the United States. 53% of Americans say Mr. Trump is guilty of abuse of power. And 45% of Americans say Mr. Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice. All of that, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll of 1,500 adults.

Caution: This survey was conducted at a time of fast-moving, volatile and unpredictable news events; the findings could be obsoleted at any moment by significant changes in the known set of publicly-known facts. That caveat notwithstanding, here is what the thermometer says as SurveyUSA takes America’s temperature this Wednesday 05/17/17, after news reports that the President directly asked the FBI Director to let go of a criminal investigation into former National Security Director Michael Flynn:

82% of Democrats, 49% of independents, 23% of Republicans, 80% of African Americans, 74% of Hispanics, say Mr. Trump has abused his power.
76% of liberals, 46% of moderates, 21% of conservatives, 53% of 18-to-34-year-olds, say Mr. Trump has obstructed justice.

35% say Mr. Trump has committed a high crime or misdemeanor while serving as President, which would be grounds for impeachment under the U.S. Constitution. Yet, 48% say talk of impeachment is premature. 19% say talk of impeachment is timely, and 26% say talk of impeachment is overdue.

No impeachment can happen in a Congress that is controlled by Republicans unless Republicans have the will to act. Just 24% of Americans say that Congressional Republicans — led by Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin — will put their country before their political party. A majority, 56%, say Republicans will put their party before their country. Democrats can take no comfort in those findings. The country thinks Democrats are almost as bad: 33% have confidence that Democrats will put their country before their political party, compared to 47% who say the Democrats will put their party before their country. Congressional Democrats are led by Charles Schumer of New York and Nancy Pelosi of California.

On the essential triggering event, as to whether President Trump legitimately won the 2016 election, Americans are divided. 41% say Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton fair-and-square. An equal number, 41%, say Mr. Trump was helped across the finish line. Protestants stand by the President: 54% say he was elected fair and square. Catholics, other Christian denominations and members of other religions and atheists are not so sure. Whites and minorities see the question in stark contrast. Those in urban America and those in rural America come to opposite conclusions about whether Hail to the Chief should be played for Hillary Clinton and not for Donald Trump.

At this hour, 43% of Americans say Mr. Trump will not serve a full term (36% because he will removed from office, 7% because he will resign the office). Another 30% say Mr. Trump will serve 1 full term. 18% (including disproportionately conservatives and pro-lifers), say Mr. Trump will serve 2 full terms.

Stay tuned.

40% in Portland Say Government Officials Doing ‘Poor’ Job Managing Region’s Traffic Congestion, But What Is The Solution? Majority See Toll Roads As A Dead End; Tepid Support for A Tax on Gasoline; 6 in 10 Say They Are Unwilling to Ride a Bicycle

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 72 days ago

One-fourth of those in greater Portland are rarely or never inconvenienced by traffic congestion, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV. But for the other three-fourths of area residents, congestion is seen as a bother (46%), a source of stress every day (22%), and the cause of ruination (3%).

3 times as many Democrats as Republicans want to see money spent on mass transit. Twice as many Republicans as Democrats say mass transit is a waste of taxpayer money.

27% say toll roads are a step in the wrong direction, and 26% go even further and call toll roads a completely wrong-headed approach (combined: 53% opposed to toll roads).

26% say an additional tax on a gallon of gasoline is a step in the wrong direction. 23% say higher gasoline taxes are a completely wrong-headed approach (combined: 49% opposed to higher gasoline taxes).

25% in greater Portland ride a bicycle “regularly” or “occasionally,” and that is the same percentage who say they may ride a bike if the price of gasoline gets too high and/or if road congestion becomes more unbearable.

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