Over the next few days, keep an eye out for fresh SurveyUSA polling data in Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Alabama, Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma, and California.  We’ll let you know exactly what impact John Edwards’ withdrawal is having on the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and whether Rudy Giuliani’s voters head for […]

At this hour, results from the 12 polling firms working tomorrow’s Florida Republican Primary can be distributed along a bell-curve this way:

Romney +12
Romney +7
Romney +4
Tied
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +2
McCain +3
McCain +3
McCain +4

The mode is McCain +1.
The median is McCain +1.
The mean is is Romney +0.6.

It is possible one or two firms may release final […]

In SurveyUSA’s first poll in California following Barack Obama’s win in South Carolina, Obama inches closer to Clinton, John Edwards now in single digits. Interactive tracking graphs here. Research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno.

First interviews completed in Florida following today’s endorsement of Barack Obama by Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA). We promise to post full results before we turn the lights out tonight, but the headline is: there is no immediate movement to Obama, and no immediate movement away from Clinton, after the Kennedy announcement, in the dwindling few […]

McCain 37%, Huckabee 28%, Romney 19%, in data gathered by SurveyUSA 01/27/08. Complete results here. Interactive tracking graphs, which show McCain and Huckabee changing places, and Romney and Giuliani changing places, here. This data will serve as an important benchmark, against which we can measure the impact of tomorrow’s Florida Republican Primary, which could well […]

SurveyUSA’s poll in Florida released last Friday, 01/25/08, the day before the South Carolina Democratic Primary, showed significant narrowing in the Democratic contest, with Barack Obama gaining material ground against Hillary Clinton. The question was: would Obama gain additional ground in Sunday 01/27/08 SurveyUSA polling, after the size of his South Carolina win was known? […]

WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola will broadcast on Monday 01/28/08 results of SurveyUSA’s 9th tracking poll in the Florida Republican Primary, completed moments ago. Data will be posted here, including complete crosstabs and interactive tracking graphs, after SurveyUSA’s media partners have released the exact findings.

25 polling firms have polled one or more of the 8 Presiential Primaries and Caucuses to date in 2008. Here’s how the pollsters stack-up, ranked from smallest average error to largest average error (where smaller error is better, and zero is perfect).

To put the size of Barack Obama’s South Carolina win into perspective:

Average Pollster Error in South […]

 * * Updated 10:15 am ET 01/26/08 with final numbers from Zogby and ARG; list re-sorted.
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Last time 14 pollsters all told you that Barack Obama would win a Primary, all 14 were wrong. That was the day before New Hampshire, 18 days ago.
History has an opportunity to repeat itself this weekend: 7 8 9 pollsters […]

There are enough whitecaps in the SC water to tip a pollster canoe. Consider:

The number of self-described Independents in the SurveyUSA SC Democratic Primary poll released today is up from 7% in December to 16% today.
The number of self-described Republicans in the SC Democratic Primary poll released today is up from 4% in December to […]