Heading into last night’s Super Bowl, the New Jersey-based New York Giants were 11 (and a half) point underdogs to the New England Patriots.

Heading into tomorrow’s Super Tuesday primary in New Jersey, Illinois-based Barack Obama is an 11 point underdog to Hillary Clinton.

If we can continue to abuse football metaphors for a moment, here’s the key to the game for Obama:

• He holds a 16-point lead among men;
• Clinton holds a 29-point lead among women;
• SurveyUSA’s turnout model suggests women will make up 61% of those voting in tomorrow’s Democratic primary.

The more men who turn out to vote, the more Obama stands to “cover the spread” and take home some of New Jersey’s 127 delegates.

Another key: unaffiliated voters.

Nearly 60% of New Jersey’s registered voters are registered as unaffiliated. Those voters can choose to vote in either the Republican or the Democratic primary tomorrow.

• Obama leads unaffiliateds by 22 points.
• Clinton leads Democrats by 15 points.
• Our turnout model suggests unaffiliated voters will make up 10% of those voting in tomorrow’s Democratic primary.

A relatively small increase in the number of unaffiliated voters could have a big impact on the numbers tomorrow.

Full results and tracking are here. Republican results, showing John McCain 29 points ahead of Mitt Romney, are here.