Missouri: Show Me a Three-Way Tie

At the wire, SurveyUSA’s Missouri polling for KCTV in Kansas City and KSDK in St. Louis shows a three-way dead heat. It’s John McCain 33%, Mitt Romney 31%, Mike Huckabee 28% — with a 4.3% margin of sampling error. Regional turnout will be key in determining the winner: Huckabee leads 2:1 in the Ozarks, leading Romney by 25 and McCain by 30. In the center of the state, it’s Romney in front, 10 points ahead of Huckabee and 19 ahead of McCain. McCain, though, holds the lead in the Kansas City and St. Louis areas.
Full results, crosstabs, analysis, and tracking graphs are right here.

On the Democratic side, we’re showing Hillary Clinton 11 points atop Barack Obama. Again, as always, turnout will be key; a 46-point gender gap suggests Obama could close fast if men make up more than the 42% of voters shown in this final poll.










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