In SurveyUSA head-to-head polling in Ohio, conducted last weekend and released today, there are several interesting findings.
- Hillary Clinton beats John McCain by 10 points, 52-42.
- Barack Obama beats John McCain by 3 points, 47-44, well within the survey’s 4.3% margin of sampling error.
- Both Democrats are performing significantly better than they did last month, when Clinton lost by 2 and Obama lost by 7 to McCain.
- This is the first time Obama has led McCain in Ohio in the nine tracking polls SurveyUSA has conducted on that matchup.
- This is the fourth time Clinton has led McCain in Ohio in the twelve tracking polls SurveyUSA has conducted on that matchup.
- The two tracking graphs have markedly different appearances, and some commonalities as well. Graphs, links, and further discussion after the jump.
In the McCain/Clinton matchup, both candidates have consistently “traded” within a 9-point range, with McCain receiving between 42% and 51% of the vote in every poll, and Clinton receiving between 43% and 52% of the vote in every poll.
In the McCain/Obama matchup, both candidates have consistently traded within a 12-13 point range; McCain has never received less than 44% or more than 56%, and Obama has never received less than 34% or more than 47%. If we throw out the very first tracking point, from October of 2006, when Barack Obama had significantly less national name recognition, the trading range for each candidate is narrowed to 10 points for McCain (44% – 54%) and 7 for Obama (40% – 47%).
Full results are here. Research conducted for WKYC-TV Cleveland, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WCMH-TV Columbus, and WHIO-TV Dayton.