Pennsylvania: Clinton 18 Points Ahead of Obama
In a Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania today, 04/08/08, two weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 56% to 38%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre. The results are almost identical to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago. Then, Clinton led by 19. Today, 18. In between, however, in a SurveyUSA tracking poll released last week, Obama had closed to within 12 points. What happened in the past 7 days?
1st: Some of the men who flirted with Obama at the end of March have returned to Clinton. Other men have moved to the sidelines. Last week, Obama led by 7 among men. Men were 46% of likely voters. Today, Clinton leads among men. Men are 42% of likely voters.
2nd: Obama lost ground among voters age 35 to 49. A week ago, he had caught Clinton in this age group. Today, he’s down 18. By contrast, there is no movement among voters age 50+. Clinton’s lead among voters 50+ is stable across all 3 tracking polls.
3rd: In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and which makes up 42% of likely Democratic voters, Clinton had a good week, Obama a bad week. Clinton is above 50% for the first time and Obama is now down by 9 in a region he must win to carry the state. In Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, Clinton polls at 60% for the first time, 25 points atop Obama. Only in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown, has there been consistent movement toward Obama.
4th: Among moderates, Obama lost key ground while Clinton gained ground. Clinton now leads by 24 points, 60% to 36%. Obama also lost ground among Liberals. And while Obama’s support fell among Conservatives, so did Clinton’s.
5th: Interviewing for SurveyUSA’s 04/01/08 release, one week ago, occurred in the middle of Obama’s 6-day bus tour through Pennsylvania, which began on 03/28/08. Obama may have benefited a week ago from the media spotlight. Summary: The complete absence of movement among whites and among women is striking. Among white voters, Clinton polled at 61% in all 3 tracking polls. Among women, Clinton was at 62% a month ago, 62% last week, and 61% today. These two unwavering core constituencies help make Clinton so formidable in the Keystone state.
For full crosstabs, click here. To access the tracking data referenced above, click here and use the pop-up menu near the top left of the table to view the different subgroups.
You have got to be kidding me? SurveyUSA is a company to do polls or propaganda? There is no way Clinton is ahead by 18 points.
I have to agree… this goes against all the other recent polling data. This morning’s Rasmussen poll has Obama down only 5 (so did last week’s), Quinnipiac has him down 6, Insider Advantage has him down 3, PPP has him UP 2, Strategic Vision has him down 8, and even the most extreme scenario from Morning Call has him down 11. But 18!?
I don’t see why SurveyUSA would be so wrong in one case. Their track record has been excellent this election season, so I think we should have reason to believe that at the very least, there appears to be movement in Sen. Clinton’s direction. Scott Rasmussen was on FOX News’ Election HQ and stated that Clinton’s numbers have stopped falling, although his poll shows a much smaller lead for her than SurveyUSA does.
SurveyUSA has been the most consistent among all polls. Remember how Hillary, either leading by a narrow 3 points or trailing by 10 points, in Ohio as predicted by other companies, end up leading by 10 points!Only this company had the survey result that jived with the actual result. That’s why I always check this site. Hopefully they’ll have polls released more often.
I agree that SUSA has done some fine polling this primary season, but this one screams “outlier” — at least until these numbers are corroborated by another poll. It’s one thing if the polls are all jumbled, but what has happened in PA over the past week or two has been crystal clear: Obama has significantly eroded Clinton’s double-digit lead.
So, while my political gut tells me Clinton is in the lead by mid-single-digits, 18 points just doesn’t feel right. Beside, there’s no “reason” for such movement. Nothing has happened in the race that you can point to that might explain a Clinton comeback like this.
Looking at the crosstabs, her lead might be a little less. I believe that more than 19% of the electorate will be between 18-34. I don’t think more than half of the electorate will be over 50 although PA does have a lot of older voters. And, the percentage of the black vote probably should be up a few points and I don’t see Hillary getting 24% of that vote.
But I have to say, Survey USA has been right on the mark this year. But the crosstabs cause me to question whether the lead should be adjusted. Let’s say we knock down the lead to about 12 points.
Survey USA has been the most accurate polling company so far in this primary season. They were the only ones that showed Clinton with a 10% lead in California. The results in CA: Clinton by 10% Other polling companies were way off:
Zogby showed Obama with a 13 point lead in California while Rasmussen showed Obama up 1 point.
Similarly, in Ohio, Survey USA was the only who got it exactly right, while others were way off–Survey USA predicted a 10% point win in Ohio. The results: 10.1% win by Clinton. Zogby showed a TIE in Ohio, while Quinnipiac showed Clinton with just a 4% lead.
There are other states where Survey USA was much closer than anyone else. So, I would be very careful about attacking the polling done by Survey USA. They are the most impartial and objective of all the polling companies. Many other polling companies have political agendas but Survey USA does not seem to have a political bias.
Only 2% undecided? IMPOSSIBLE currently in PA and Southest with philly is for Obama.
This poll is totally biased.
Politico points out one of the factors that might be skewing the perception regarding the younger voters. It appears that you have more out of state students in Pennsylvania than homegrown ones and most of those imports are registered to vote at home and have done so or will do so via absentee ballot.
Additionally, it appears that there has been a measurable trend of supporters in that age group over the last week who have voiced their return to the Clinton camp in a sort of “the Honeymoon is over” mood.
[…] since it’s one poll, but it’s not exactly an outlier. SurveyUSA from 4 days ago had her ahead by 18 points. Since then, Obama’s had to deal with his referring to small towners as […]