PA End Game: Clinton 50, Obama 44

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 04/21/08 01:00 PM


With 18 hours to go before Pennsylvanians start casting their votes, Hillary Clinton is six points ahead of Barack Obama in this, SurveyUSA’s fifth and final tracking poll conducted exclusively for our PA media clients KDKA-TV in Pittsburgh, WCAU-TV in Philadelphia, WHP-TV in Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Full results and analysis are here; some selected highlights on what has — and has not — changed follow:

  • In Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia and most of the state’s African American population, the candidates had seesawed in four previous polls, but Obama finishes strongly, ahead by 14 points.
  • Among men, Clinton had led narrowly in 3 of the 4 previous tracking polls, but finishes down 15.
  • Among liberals, Obama began 18 points behind Clinton but finishes 11 points ahead of Clinton.
  • Among those who have not graduated from college, Clinton led by 28 points last week, but by 15 points today.
  • Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 8 last week, trails by 8 today.

Here’s what has not changed:

  • Among women, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 30, 28, 28, 22, and 23 points.
  • Among voters aged 50+, Clinton in 5 polls has led by 26, 22, 24, 20, and 20 points.

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