20 weeks to election day, with both parties’ nomination fights over, SurveyUSA moves to a likely voter model in its Presidential and Vice Presidential matchups. This month we start in the Great Lakes region, and in the state of Minnesota, where in most cases, the race is too close to call:
Margin of sampling error on this poll is + or – 4.3 percentage points, which means only one of the pairings — John McCain and New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg against Barack Obama and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer — is outside the margin of error.
Other candidates tested on the GOP side are Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, now a senior adviser to the McCain campaign. On the Democratic side, Virginia US Senator Jim Webb, Missouri US Senator Claire McCaskill, and Bloomberg — an independent who left the Republican party in June 2007 — were tested.
Re-emphasizing and re-cautioning on the margin of error: it may be tempting to make something of the orderly way some of the names line up, with Jindal/McCain always on the GOP win side and McCain/Fiorina always on the losing side. The margin of error is twice as large as Jindal’s best and Fiorina’s worst performance; these are all statistical ties, albeit ones that happen to produce an easy-to-read chart.
Click the chart to see the fully crosstabbed results. Research conducted for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester MN, and WDIO-TV Duluth.