The 2nd Congressional District in Central Kentucky were George W. Bush’s strongest in the state, electing him with 62% of the vote in 2000 and re-electing him with 65% of the vote in 2004. The Cook Political Report rates the district a “Solid R” and gives it a +13 Partisan Voting Index. It sent Republican Ron Lewis to Washington in 1994, and did so again every two years through 2006.

Lewis announced his retirement in January, however, and now two state senators — Republican Brett Guthrie and Democrat David Boswell — are in a statistical tie in the race to replace him.

SurveyUSA’s exclusive poll for WHAS-TV, released yesterday, shows Boswell– the Democrat — leading by 3 points — within the survey’s 4.3 percentage point margin of sampling error, but still quite a surprise for a “Solid R” +13 district.

WHAS political reporter Mark Hebert blogged about the poll here.