MO6 Back to Where it Was in 4 Months Ago — Incumbent Republican Graves On Top, With Breathing Room: In an election for United States House of Representatives from Missouri’s 6th Congressional District today, 09/18/08, incumbent Republican Sam Graves defeats Democrat Kay Barnes 51% to 42%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV Kansas City. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 7 weeks ago, Graves is up 3 points, Barnes is down 2. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 4 months ago, in May, the contest is effectively unchanged.

In four months of tracking, among men, Graves has led by 19, 23, and now by 16 points. Among women, the two candidates tied four months ago; 7 weeks ago, Barnes led by 17 points; today, the trend has reversed and Graves leads Barnes by 3.

Barnes today leads among voters age 18 to 34; Graves leads among voters age 35+.
Among voters age 35 to 49, Graves leads by 22 points; among voters 50 to 64, Graves leads by 11; among those 65+, Graves leads by 3.

5% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Barnes; 14% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican Graves; Independents favor Graves by 16 points.