In an election for Mayor of Fresno CA today, Fresno State Director of Community and Economic Development Ashley Swearengin and City Councilman Henry T. Perea finish effectively even, with a slight advantage to Swearengin, according to this SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for KFSN-TV, the ABC owned station in Fresno. Today, it’s Swearengin 48%, Perea 45%, largely unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, when it was Swearengin 47%, Perea 43%. 7% of likely voters are today undecided, making any outcome possible.

On the surface, the contest is static, but underneath, there is offsetting movement. Swearengin has gained ground among men, lost ground among women. Perea has gained ground among older voters, lost ground among younger voters. Perea has gained ground among voters focused on economic development and crime, but has lost ground among voters focused on gangs.

Among white voters, Swearengin leads by 26 points; among Hispanics, Perea leads by 42; both numbers are largely unchanged from those six weeks ago. The ratio of white voters to Hispanic voters on Election Day will determine who wins the election. In today’s SurveyUSA poll results, 59% of voters are white, 25% of voters are Hispanic. Swearengin gets 73% of Republican voters; Perea gets 64% of Democratic voters; Independents are split

Full results can be found here .