In an election for the open seat in the United States House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District today, one month to Election Day, DFL Party candidate Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen battle for every vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Madia and Paulsen finish today inside the survey’s margin of sampling error, effectively even, 46% for Madia, 43% for Paulsen. In an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Paulsen was nominally ahead, inside of the margin of sampling error. Today, Madia is.

Paulsen leads among men. Madia leads among women. Paulson leads among voters age 18 to 49. Madia leads among voters age 50+. Each candidate retains 86% of his party’s voters; independents split. Conservatives break 8:1 for Paulsen; liberals break 8:1 for Madia; moderates back Madia 5:3.

Obama and McCain tie in the district. Madia runs 3 points weaker than Barack Obama in the district. Paulsen runs 4 points weaker than John McCain. Madia is viewed favorably by 39% — up 10 points over the past month. Republican Paulsen is viewed favorably by 33%. Retiring 9-term Republican congressman Jim Ramstad is viewed favorably by 58%. In MN3, 10% approve of the job that the US Congress is doing. 28% approve of the job that President George W. Bush is doing.